Why the Rams’ defense will matter to Jimmy Garoppolo, plus other best bets for Monday

I don’t watch a lot of live sports TV shows on set. I’m not one to pay attention to the hours of college football or the NFL, and I’m not the type to laugh at the inside jokes between Charles Barkley and Shaq after NBA games are broadcast. wave. I’m just one of those odd sports fans who prefer sports to talk about sports, which is perhaps an odd personality trait of someone who gets paid to write and talk about sports.

However, on Sunday morning, I turned on the television to watch an online program. I wanted to watch the F1 race from Brazil, but my wife wanted me to wait until she got home to watch with me, so I was killing time and wanted to turn off the internet to avoid spoilers. So there I was, watching a NFL The Pregame program runs a five-minute feature about Russell Wilson and his incredible back story. Russ spoke live to the camera about all the hard work he’s worked so hard to get back to quickly, and it even features his doctor talking about how Russ was “built differently.” ” (yes, an actual doctor said this) because of the way he works and recovers.

It’s an incredible story about one man’s journey to overcome a debilitating injury with a broken finger. Seriously, I have great respect for Russell Wilson as a footballer and have no doubts about his toughness. But they treated him to recover from his broken finger as if it were a much more serious injury.

That’s a broken finger! And it looks like Russ came back too soon as he completed only 20 of his 40 passes without a touchdown and two interceptions in a 17-0 loss last week. Packers.

At least it’s a great reminder of why I generally avoid those gigs.

Now let’s get to tonight’s picks, which I’ve recovered 19 hours a day for the last month to prepare myself.

All Eastern Times, and all odds through Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 Hot ticket

🏈 Rams in 49ers, 8:15 pm | TV: ESPN
Selection: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 0.5 interceptions (-120): I don’t really like this game. In breaking it down, I concluded that I’d rather score with the Rams than take San Francisco, but I don’t see much room on either side of the 3.5 point spread. I lean towards the top when it comes to totals, but I would love if the total was 49 instead of 50.5.

Thankfully, there’s always a billion props available to wager on, and I’ve found a point that I strongly believe in. Jimmy Garoppolo is a pretty average NFL starting quarterback. He’s capable of doing some work that helps you win the game, and as we’ve seen, if you surround him with a good enough team, he can even help you get there. Super Bowl. We’ve also seen that he’s not the type of QB that will go out on his own and win games and he’s made too many fatal mistakes.

Of the 34 qualified passers this season, Jimmy G is 23rd in interception rate with 2.3%. That’s not a recent trend, as Garoppolo’s interception rate of 2.8% since joining the 49ers is 34th out of 37 QBs with at least 900 passes during that time (James Winston the final 3.6%). In that trend for Jimmy is another.

Most interceptions are against the coverage area.

Over the past four seasons, Jimmy G has had an interception rate of 3.0% above the regional average compared to 2.4% for the man. Not that good, but it’s a significant difference between the two and tonight he’ll be up against a Rams defense that runs the area average more often (78.6%) than any other team in the Premier League. NFL. Considering San Francisco are the underdogs, and this could be a shootout, it means that Garoppolo could be asked to throw a lot, which only increases his odds of being knocked out at least once.

Main trend: Jimmy G has the fourth highest INT rate of passers with at least 900 attempts as of 2017.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s RJ White is 37-19-1 ATS in his last 57 picks involving the Rams and he has a game spread available for tonight’s game if you want that bet on the possibility of Jimmy G’s defeat.

💰 Selection

NBA

Nuggets at Mavericks, 8pm | TV: NBA TV

Latest rate:

Under 209

Select: Under 209.5 (-110) – During the first week or two of the NBA season, many of you sent me emails or tweets asking me to stop picking so many underlines. I haven’t stopped underlining the NBA, and the complaints have disappeared because the bottom door is the right place to be in the NBA! Even though it was even in November, the bottom door is still a remarkable 119-79 in the NBA this season. That’s 60%! They’ve brought the total down, and it hasn’t made much of an impact, and they didn’t lower the total for this game far enough tonight.

Neither of these teams has been very good offensively this season, but Denver is second in the NBA in defensive rating. Both are moving slow, as the Mavs are 21st in the league in speed, while Denver is 29th. So we have two slow-moving inefficiencies. That’s not a recipe for multiple NBA overs this season.

Main trend: Underscore is 20-8 in Denver’s last 28 road games and 6-1-1 in Dallas’ last eight home games.

🏀 College basketball

Penn State at UMass, 7 p.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network

Latest rate:

Under 142

Select: Under 142.5 (-115) – It’s still very early in the college basketball season, but while I don’t know everything I want at the moment, I do know that Penn State wants to slow down. That speed led me to find the above value below because I have this total score too high.

UMass wanted to get out and running, and it worked well through two games. However, there is a difference in being able to decide your own pace against teams like UMBC and Yale versus a Big Ten team like Penn State. This veteran Penn State team will control their laning tonight and try to keep things as slow as possible to make up for their shortcomings in attack. Don’t expect much fireworks in this.

Main trend: Under is 5-2 in Penn State’s last seven games as favorites.

🔒 SportsChoice of the day: You might not be watching tonight’s college basketball game between Presbyterian and The Citadel, but consider it. The SportsLine projection model and the two SportsLine experts are both on the same side of the spread, you may want to change your plans.

🏀 College basketball bets

There really isn’t much on the board that I love tonight. I was hoping to share a game selection for Monday Night Football and then a few props for you below, but there wasn’t much value to be found. So let’s go with a simple parlay bet that pays +100.

• LSU (-420)
• Missouri (-650)
• New Mexico (-475)
• St. Mary’s (-650)