Why Louisville is in trouble vs. UCF, plus NFL overs to take this weekend

It is the publication you’ve got been ready all day to see pop up in your inbox. It is a Soccer Friday within the HQ PM publication, which suggests I’ve received extra picks than you realize what to do with. I’ve received a college football play for tonight, in addition to two extra for the weekend. I’ve received two NFL picks for you too, after which there are the soccer picks. We end all of it off with an insane six-leg Soccer Selection Hour Parlay to sweat all through all of it.

It is superior.

Earlier than we get to the picks and at this time’s tales, although, I wish to ship a fast shout-out to The Climate. Apparently, it heard my requires fall in Thursday’s publication as a result of after I walked the canine this morning, it was 68 levels. Certain, it is 80 as I write this, however wanting on the upcoming forecast, it appears that evidently fall may lastly arrive quickly. Or Huge Climate is messing with my head and hacking into all my climate apps to lull me right into a false sense of safety earlier than slapping me over the top with one other week of highs within the 80s. You may by no means make sure relating to Huge Climate.

Now let’s get this weekend began.

All instances Japanese, and all odds by way of Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Sizzling Ticket

🏈 UCF at Louisville, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Decide: UCF -7 (-110)
: This strikes me as an terrible matchup for Louisville. Whereas I did not see the Cardinals play Japanese Kentucky final week, I noticed all of their loss to Ole Miss. What stood out to me was how sluggish and predictable they have been on offense. This crew misplaced each Javian Hawkins and Tutu Atwell to the NFL after final season, and people two have been the massive performs in Louisville’s offense the previous couple of years. I do not see any replacements but.

As an alternative, Malik Cunningham has been compelled to hold the load on his personal, and whereas he is a superb participant, he isn’t ok to succeed alone. Tonight he’ll be going in opposition to a UCF protection that will get little to no respect nationally however is legitimately good. They fly to the ball, they sort out, and if there is a weak spot, it is within the secondary. However that is a weak spot Louisville cannot exploit.

In the meantime, there’s nothing Louisville’s protection has proven me to persuade me it is going to cease the Knights once they have the ball. Louisville coach Scott Satterfield is already in sizzling water with Louisville followers, and after tonight, the water may begin to boil.

Key Pattern: Louisville is just 8-20-1 ATS in its final 29 video games as an underdog.

This is what SportsLine is saying concerning the sport: SportsLine professional Zack Cimini has gone 7-1 in his final eight Louisville picks. Check out how he thinks tonight will pan out.

💰 The Picks


Raiders at Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m. | TV: CBS

Newest Odds:

Over 46.5

The Decide: Over 47 (-110) — I’ve heard loads of concern concerning the Steelers offense even after it went on the street and beat Buffalo final week, and I get it. It was dangerous final yr, and whereas Huge Ben is noticeably slimmer, the zip on the ball that was as soon as there does not seem to have returned. Nonetheless, I believe the Buffalo protection is excellent and deserves loads of credit score. I haven’t got the identical degree of religion on this Las Vegas protection, even when the Raiders did present a semblance of a move rush on Monday evening in opposition to Baltimore.

I do just like the Raiders offense, nevertheless, and I believe this might become a enjoyable sport to observe on Sunday. The Steelers offense ought to present us a bit extra at residence in a pleasant atmosphere, and I believe the Raiders can hold tempo. So I will be rooting for factors.

Key Pattern: The over is 13-3-1 in Las Vegas’ final 17 video games.

Titans at Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | TV: CBS
The Decide: Seahawks Over 30.5 (+100) — 
Fading the Titans protection may turn out to be an everyday play on this spot all through the season. I imply, how may it not be into account? The Titans gave up 38 factors to the Cardinals at residence final week after permitting 27.4 factors per sport final season. This has been a awful protection for some time, with little to no move rush.

That is why Kyler Murray was capable of dance across the pocket doing no matter he needed, and Seattle simply so occurs to have a QB able to doing loads of the identical issues. Oh, and that QB additionally occurs to be in an offense that lastly seems prefer it needs to play to his strengths. I believe Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense may have an enormous day, as will nearly each offense that faces the Titans this season.

Key Pattern: The Titans have allowed at the very least 31 factors in three of their final 4 video games.

🏈 School Soccer

Getty Photos

No. 1 Alabama at No. 11 Florida, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. | TV: CBS
The Decide: Alabama -14.5 (-110) — 
Yeah, you are not going to catch me providing you with any cause to fade Alabama on this matchup. In concept, Florida is the kind of crew that may put a much bigger scare into Alabama than most different SEC groups. To beat Alabama lately, you need to be able to scoring at the very least 40 factors, and a Dan Mullen crew can try this. Properly, final yr’s crew may’ve, anyway. I am not bought that the 2021 model of the Gators can.

Followers are clamoring for quarterback Anthony Richardson to see extra snaps than he is been getting, however Richardson has torn aside two dangerous groups in restricted time. He is gotten away with loads of stuff he would not be capable to in opposition to Alabama, even when he does supply big-play potential. And, on the finish of the day, whether or not it is Richardson or Emory Jones, this Florida offense is not able to maintaining. My solely concern right here is that Bryce Younger struggles in what would be the most troublesome atmosphere he is performed in thus far. In fact, he may get off to a sluggish begin, and I can nonetheless see the Tide protecting this quantity with ease.

Key Pattern: Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its final eight in opposition to the SEC.

No. 22 Auburn at No. 10 Penn State, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ABC
The Decide: Penn State -5 (-110) — 
Auburn has seemed superior within the first two weeks, hasn’t it? We’re speaking about an offense averaging 61 factors per sport whereas Bo Nix completes 74% of his passes for 9.8 yards per try with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. That is superior. The issue is, two video games in opposition to Akron and Alabama State aren’t going to persuade me this can be a new Nix.

No, the Nix I do know has at all times been significantly better at residence than on the street. Nix has accomplished 63% of his passes at residence and averaged 7.7 yards per try with 15 touchdowns and one interception. On the street, his completion price drops to 54.5%, his YPA plummets to five.7 and he is thrown extra interceptions (10) than touchdowns (9). Now Nix and Auburn are on the street in opposition to a Penn State crew that has picked up two extra spectacular wins than the Tigers have, and the Nittany Lions will win out on this large cat battle at residence Saturday evening.

Key Pattern: Auburn is 2-7 ATS in its final 9 as a street underdog.

If you’re looking for more college football picks for the weekend, find them in my weekly column, The Six Pack.

⚽ Soccer

Getty Photos

Brighton vs. Leicester Metropolis, Sunday, 9 a.m. | TV: Peacock
The Decide: Brighton (+165) — 
It is no secret Leicester light down the stretch final season. It misplaced three of its remaining 4 matches to fall out of the Champions League spots and received solely 5 of its remaining 13. The most important cause for this was a protection that allowed a mean of 1.47 xG per match in its remaining seven. It is a pattern that has continued to start out the brand new season, as Leicester has an xG allowed of 8.1 by way of 4 matches. The one groups doing worse are Arsenal, Norwich, Leeds and Newcastle. Leicester has been even worse on the street, permitting 4.1 xG in two matches in opposition to Norwich and West Ham.

Leicester comes into this weekend’s match in opposition to a strong Brighton squad having performed on Thursday in a Europa League match that. Leicester blew a 2-0 lead and allowed an xG of two.3 to Napoli. It is a crew in dangerous form for the time being, and I am seeking to make the most of a market that hasn’t fairly caught on but.

Key Pattern: Leicester has received solely seven of its final 19 Premier League matches.

Juventus vs. AC Milan, Sunday, 2:45 p.m. | TV: Paramount+
The Decide: Juventus (+113) — 
Actually, we would not discover higher worth on Juventus for the remainder of the season. The Outdated Girl has managed solely a degree in its first three league matches and sits simply above the relegation zone in Serie A. In the meantime, Milan is tied for first with Roma and Napoli and has been magnificent to start out the season. It is scored seven objectives and allowed just one, and the crew’s anticipated objective differential per match of 1.71 is the perfect within the league.

However the Juventus we’ll see this weekend needs to be the closest to full energy that we have seen thus far — there are loads of drained gamers within the squad due to Italy’s Euros run — and the extra it performs, the extra it adapts to life with out Ronaldo. I will not be shocked in any respect if Milan wins this match — it’s legitimately good — however Milan additionally had a troublesome match in opposition to Liverpool in the course of the week, whereas Juve was capable of coast to a 3-0 win over Malmo. Juve ought to win this match usually sufficient to justify the worth we’re shopping for it at.

Key Pattern: Juventus has received 18 of its final 24 residence matches.

🔒 SportsLine Decide of the Day: The simulation mannequin has a fairly strong lean on the over/under for Maryland vs. Illinois

🏈⚽ Soccer Selection Hour Parlay

Three completely different sorts of soccer, two legs of every, one six-leg parlay paying +165. 

  • Pitt (-700)
  • Ole Miss (-650)
  • Browns (-700)
  • Buccaneers (-800)
  • Manchester Metropolis (-675)
  • Borussia Dortmund (-275)

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/information/why-louisville-is-in-trouble-vs-ucf-plus-nfl-overs-to-take-this-weekend/ | Why Louisville is in bother vs. UCF, plus NFL overs to take this weekend


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