Why Lamar Jackson may have a tough night vs. Dolphins defense, plus other bet bets for Thursday

Should you missed the information this morning, Cam Newton is back with the Carolina Panthers. That is proper, with Sam Darnold being damage (and being unhealthy), the Panthers determined to show to their previous pal and former franchise QB to avoid wasting their season. Will it work? I do not know! That mentioned, I do not suppose Cam must be seen as a downgrade from Sam Darnold, even at this level of his profession when he is not near the identical participant he as soon as was.

However none of that issues to me as a result of I am simply right here for the giggles. It’s humorous to me that with Cam’s return, the Panthers are paying his unique alternative (Teddy Bridgewater, now in Denver), Bridgewater’s alternative (Sam Darnold) and now Darnold’s alternative, who’s Cam Newton — the participant they initially changed.

That is numerous cap house to finish up with the identical participant you initially had. Additionally, it is unlikely Cam will play this weekend, which implies his first begin with the Panthers is prone to come subsequent week towards Washington. The identical Washington coached by … Cam’s former coach in Carolina, Ron Rivera.

OK, let’s make some cash earlier than the Panthers spend it on one other QB.

All occasions Japanese, and all odds by way of Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Scorching Ticket

🏈 Ravens at Dolphins, 8:20 p.m. | TV: FOX
The Choose: Lamar Jackson Underneath 239.5 yards passing (+100): This isn’t a play based mostly on the narrative of Lamar Jackson not being an excellent passer, as he is achieved a wonderful job of placing that one to mattress this season. Coming into the night time, Jackson is averaging a career-best yards per completion (12.8) and yards per recreation (276.1). However, an attention-grabbing facet of Lamar’s performances is that after being strong towards man protection early in his profession, he is struggled towards it because the begin of final season.

Because the starting of 2020, Lamar has a passer ranking of 75.7 towards man protection and a completion charge of 55.2% whereas averaging 6.22 yards per try. These are important drop-offs in comparison with his numbers towards zones, the place his passer ranking is 95.2, his completion charge is 68.2% and he averages 8.68 yards per try.

To date this season, the Dolphins have been in man protection on 49.1% of their defensive snaps, which is much and away the very best frequency within the NFL. Baltimore is second at 41.1%.

Additionally, quarterbacks can run extra successfully towards man protection as a result of defensive backs typically have to show their backs to the QB, so I can see Lamar doing much more harm on the bottom tonight than common. Add in a recreation script that might simply see the Ravens with a commanding lead, and I am simply undecided how a lot Baltimore will really feel the necessity to air it out tonight.

Key Pattern: Lamar Jackson’s YPA drops from 8.68 towards zone defenses to six.22 towards man.

This is what SportsLine is saying in regards to the recreation: Should you’re searching for a extra conventional play, SportsLine’s Mike Tierney is 26-13-1 ATS in his last 40 plays involving the Ravens.

💰 The Picks

🏀 NBA

Raptors at Sixers, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA TV

Newest Odds:

Underneath 211.5

The Choose: Underneath 210.5 (-110) — It might be an unsightly recreation in Philadelphia tonight. The Sixers can be with out Joel Embiid but once more, in addition to Matisse Thybulle. There’s an opportunity each Tobias Harris and Seth Curry return, however based mostly on the motion surrounding the sport, most sharps do not appear to imagine that to be the case. On the Toronto facet of issues, the Raptors will possible be with out Pascal Siakam and Khem Birch. Siakam is the larger absence because the Raptors have not proven a lot skill to get constant offense with out him.

All of which makes the below way more interesting to me than the rest. As a result of even with these gamers, these are the 2 slowest-moving offenses within the NBA, as Toronto ranks twenty ninth in tempo whereas Philadelphia is thirtieth. So it is two groups transferring slowly and doubtless with out numerous their largest offensive weapons.

Key Pattern: The below is 6-1-1 within the final eight conferences.

🏈 Faculty Soccer

North Carolina at Pitt, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Newest Odds:

North Carolina Tar Heels
+6.5

The Choose: North Carolina +6.5 (-110) — I am joyful that I might get to this line earlier when North Carolina was nonetheless at +7, however I am nonetheless snug with the Tar Heels at +6.5. Pitt has been the higher group of the 2 over the season, however I fear about among the Panthers defensive performances towards enough offensive groups like they will be dealing with tonight. Pitt has a defensive success charge of 61.8% on the season and has allowed 1.56 factors per drive. Nevertheless, towards explosive offenses like Tennessee, Western Michigan and Miami, Pitt had successful charge of solely 56% and allowed 2.64 factors per drive. This North Carolina offense is extra harmful than some other group the Panthers have confronted.

In fact, North Carolina’s protection is horrible, which is why North Carolina is such a heavy canine on this spot. Nonetheless, it is a brief week for each groups, and it is the second recreation that can be performed on some tough Heinz Discipline turf in 4 days. Issues may get a bit bizarre! It has been a long-standing precept that you just take the canine when issues have an opportunity to get bizarre in an ACC recreation.

Key Pattern: Pitt is 11-23-1 ATS in its final 35 video games as a house favourite.

🔒 SportsLine Choose of the Day: Each the SportsLine Projection Mannequin and SportsLine knowledgeable John Bollman are in agreement on a live dog in the NHL tonight, but who is it?

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🏀 Hardwood Parlay

Once more, it is nonetheless too early within the season for me to really feel snug betting single video games, but it surely’s by no means too early to take a shot on parlays. This one pays +107.

• Northern Iowa (-230)
• Windfall (-1100)
• Arizona State (-475)
• Washington (-1100)