Who will win the Home Run Derby? Odds, betting favorites, best bets for MLB’s 2021 contest

The House Run Derby returns with a bang after being canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Per normal, the competitors is huge open, and bettors are licking their chops on the odds on a few of these energy hitters.

Shohei Ohtani is the one competitor who ranks within the prime 5 amongst MLB’s dwelling run leaders as of this writing, however there nonetheless is loads of pop on this yr’s derby area. Mets slugger Pete Alonso is again to defend his 2019 title and gamers comparable to Joey Gallo, Matt Olson and Salvador Perez will battle for the title as effectively.

After all, Ohtani is the largest draw as his 32 homers led the majors by July 8. However after seeing the No. 1 seed bow out in three consecutive occasions, are you able to belief Ohtani to win this yr’s derby? Or are there higher worth picks for bettors to give attention to?

Right here is an in-depth take a look at the chances and Sporting Information’ greatest bets for the 2021 House Run Derby.

MORE: Who declined invitations to the 2021 Home Run Derby?

2021 House Run Derby odds

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Eight gamers are collaborating within the 2021 House Run Derby, and Shohei Ohtani (+380) is the favourite to emerge because the victor. Ohtani led MLB with 32 homers and a .700 slugging proportion by July 8.

Joey Gallo (+475), Pete Alonso (+550), Matt Olson (+650) and Salvador Perez (+650) all test in with mid-tier odds. Alonso, the No. 5 seed, is the one lower-seeded participant to be favored in his opening-round matchup; he’ll tackle the No. 4-seeded Perez.

Trevor Story (+800)Juan Soto (+800) and Trey Mancini (+850) are all thought-about lengthy pictures to win the occasion.

Participant Odds to win
Shohei Ohtani +380
Joey Gallo +475
Pete Alonso +550
Matt Olson +650
Salvador Perez +650
Trevor Story +800
Juan Soto +800
Trey Mancini +850

(Getty Photos)

2021 House Run Derby knowledgeable picks

Greatest picks to win 2021 House Run Derby

Joey Gallo (+475). Gallo is in a good state of affairs forward of the 2021 House Run Derby. He’s the No. 2 seed within the area and landed on what seems to be the better aspect of the bracket. The Rangers’ star will face off towards Trevor Story in Spherical 1 earlier than dealing with the winner of the Matt Olson vs. Trey Mancini battle. Gallo ought to have a leg up on all three of these hitters.

Gallo has hit 23 homers this season and is tied for the league lead in no-doubt homers with 16, per The opposite gamers to achieve that mark are Shohei Ohtani, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Zunino. Extra impressively, Gallo’s 69.6 no-doubt homer proportion ranks sixth amongst gamers with not less than 15 homers on the yr. 

So, when Gallo hits homers, he launches them. Moreover, he has homered 10 occasions in his final 10 video games. He is rounding into type on the proper time and if he stays sizzling, he ought to have a fantastic likelihood to win his aspect of the bracket. The ultimate could be a little bit of a toss-up no matter who Gallo performs, however he can compete with anybody on this area.

Pete Alonso (+550). Choosing Alonso over Ohtani on the left aspect of the bracket is a danger, however pretty much as good as Ohtani has been, the numbers counsel that the 2019 House Run Derby champion might problem him.

Alonso has clubbed simply 15 homers up to now this season, however like Gallo, they’ve been of the convincing selection. Eleven of his 15 lengthy balls have been no-doubt homers. His no-doubt homer proportion of 73.3 ranks second-best amongst gamers with not less than 15 homers on the yr and first among the many eight derby contributors.

Moreover, Alonso’s exit velocity topped out at 117.1 this season. That is the sixth-highest max exit velocity amongst MLB gamers, and he trails solely Ohtani (119) amongst derby contributors for the lead in that class.

Although Alonso’s path to the ultimate is daunting — he’ll need to knock off Salvador Perez and the winner of the Ohtani vs. Juan Soto battle to get there — he is an effective worth choose to win. His energy and energy paint a good image for him. So does his earlier derby expertise, as he hit 57 homers through the 2019 occasion.

Greatest prop bets for the 2021 House Run Derby

High prop bets can be posted as they grow to be obtainable.

Size of longest homer — OVER 512.5 ft (-110). This would possibly look like a ridiculously excessive quantity, however a participant might surpass this mark in 2021. Coors Discipline is a hitter-friendly park and if MLB makes use of juiced baseballs for this occasion, it might trigger the ball to hold even additional on the ballpark.

In the course of the Statcast Period (since 2015), there has been one 500-foot homer launched at Coors Field. That got here off the bat of Giancarlo Stanton in 2016 and traveled 504 ft. In 2021, the longest homer at Coors Discipline was hit by Ryan McMahon. It traveled 478 ft with an exit velocity of 109.4 mph. It’s the fourth-longest homer in MLB this season.

On the 1998 House Run Derby which additionally occurred in Denver, Mark McGuire slugged a ball 510 ft. It was the longest homer hit at that occasion.

None of those numbers eclipse the edge we’re searching for, however they nonetheless are among the many longest homers we have seen in current seasons. And it is value noting that two of them occurred throughout regular-season video games the place it is tougher to hit lengthy homers.

In a glorified batting follow occasion just like the House Run Derby, gamers will definitely have an opportunity to crush the ball and ship it flying into Colorado’s evening sky. And this yr’s contest options two gamers that rank within the prime six of most exit velocity: Ohtani (119 mph) and Alonso (117.1 mph). So, they need to have the ability to hit among the longest homers the House Run Derby has seen.

Even a College of Illinois physics professor thinks many blasts will journey over 500 ft through the derby.

“In the course of the House Run Derby, there’ll most likely be plenty of pictures over 500 ft, actually many near 500 ft is my guess,” Nathan stated, per The Denver Post.

Even when a ball does not fairly cross the 512.5-foot mark, it seems like gamers might get very near it. As such, it is value investing within the over.

Participant with probably the most dwelling runs — Shohei Ohtani (+500). This can be a good solution to get some motion in on Ohtani with out choosing him to win. He is on the harder aspect of the bracket, however he ought to have an opportunity to hit lots of homers, as he has among the greatest pure energy and exit velocity of this stacked group. 

Final yr, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit probably the most homers within the derby (91) however nonetheless misplaced as a result of Alonso outhit him within the closing. Ohtani might do one thing comparable, particularly if he will get right into a tiebreak towards Soto or within the second spherical — if he advances that far.

For those who’re betting Gallo and Alonso to win, it is a good solution to hedge that. As a result of if Ohtani does win the derby, he’ll most likely hit probably the most homers. The chances listed below are higher than betting him to win outright anyway, so it is a good worth.

Matt Olson (-175) to beat Trey Mancini. It is laborious to root towards Mancini, who has put collectively an All-Star marketing campaign after lacking a yr whereas battling colon most cancers, however the numbers on this matchup show that Olson is the higher choose.

Solely 5 of Mancini’s 15 homers on the yr have been no-doubt homers. That 33.3 % charge is definitely the worst of the derby area. Moreover, Olson produces larger exit velocity than Mancini — Olson averages 92 mph and Mancini averages 88.5 mph — and has 37 barreled balls on the yr, the seventh-most in MLB. Mancini, conversely, has 31 and ranks nineteenth.

Mancini can compete with Olson, but when the A’s slugger has a superb evening, he ought to dispatch Mancini. Neither is prone to get previous potential second-round foe Joey Gallo, however Olson is the higher wager to emerge from this first-round matchup.

What number of dwelling runs can be hit in 2021 House Run Derby?

DraftKings presently has the over/beneath on complete dwelling runs hit set at 204.5. Bettors will definitely wish to lean on the over there.

For the reason that House Run Derby modified codecs from an outs-based competitors to a time-based competitors, gamers have hit rising numbers of homers virtually yearly. The truth is, homers have elevated yr to yr in all however one of many final 5 occasions beneath the brand new guidelines.

Yr Complete HRs
2015 159
2016 203
2017 191
2018 221
2019 311
2020 Occasion canceled

The 2019 derby’s quantity was inflated by the 79-homer battle between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Joc Pederson that took three tiebreakers to settle. It is likely to be laborious for the 2021 derby to eclipse the 311 determine with out comparable tiebreak luck.

Nonetheless, the occasion ought to produce various homers and will close to 300 if all goes effectively. Coors Discipline is likely one of the most hitter-friendly environments within the league and MLB might select to make use of juiced baseballs to create extra dwelling runs.

Both approach, viewers can as soon as once more count on to see many lengthy balls fly by the skinny Denver air.


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