Which SEA team has the best Chance of Qualifying for the first DPC 2021-22 Major?

Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) Southeast Asia (SEA) 2021-22 Tour 1: Division 1 has reached the second half and it started with some teams leading while others lagging behind in the race to win. the right to participate in the first Professional tournament. With the leaderboard, a Dota Diesel’s math simulator predicted various Southeast Asian teams’ chances of qualifying for the Major as well as their chances of being relegated to 2. BOOM Esports has been estimated to stand out as the team most likely to qualify for the tournament. Professionals have a 94% chance, while TNC Predator has the highest chance of being relegated to 2nd place.

BOOM Esports, closely followed by T1, has the highest probability of qualifying for the first Major

BOOM Esports takes the lead in the math simulation-based competition, which is also reflected in its current results. Boasting a flawless 4-0 start to the tournament with no losses in its last 19-game streak, BOOM Esports is definitely on the move.

Following BOOM Esports is T1, which has played two series and won both. BOOM Esports has a 94.7% chance of making it to the House of Commons, while T1 is not far behind with a 93.8% chance. Throughout the last year, the team has proven its strength, including reaching the prestigious top eight at The International 10 (TI10), the region’s first since 2016.

SEA’s mid lane is where we’ll see the magic in competition. BOOM Esports has a decent lead and despite the fact that T1 have played fewer series than the other teams, it’s clear that they also have the ability to progress to the Pro League considering their recent form. So the fight is mainly between Execration, Fnatic, Team SMG, Motivate.Trust Gaming and OB.Neon for third and last place. All of these teams, with the exception of OB.Neon, have roughly the same track record so far, but according to mathematical modeling, their chances of qualifying for the first Major are as follows:

In this case, two things stand out: Team SMG’s chances are much better than their rivals, even though they have almost identical Win-Loss (WL) records, and high OB.Neon more on the list despite losing all three series. they have played so far.

A good reason for Team SMG’s case probably lies in the fact that they were up against the most popular contenders of the tournament. Its only remaining games are against Execration, OB.Neon, and TNC Predator. OB.Neon and TNC Predator are both losing and have yet to get their first win.

In the case of OB.Neon, its great performance at the Huya Dota2 Winter Invitational seems to have increased its chances in the emulator. Competing with the best teams from China like Royal Never Give Up, Team Aster, Invictus Gaming, etc., OB.Neon, to everyone’s surprise, won the entire event. It is clear that the team has improved this holiday season and will be a formidable team against the rest of the opponents.

The only team from SEA that fans aren’t used to seeing at the bottom of the table, but currently at the bottom, is TNC Predator. The once dominant force of the region seems to have been devastated with their new roster so far in DPC 2021-22, having lost four straight series so far. The simulations showed a bleak landscape, so for the team to survive in Division 1, they would have to fight extremely hard.

There’s a two-week break, and we’ve seen a lot of teams change on such occasions before, but the short break, as well as the fact that the meta remains the same, may not lead to much deviation. from the opportunities presented by the computational model.

Team Liquid in the Western European Region (WEU) is the only team to mathematically guarantee a spot in the first Major in the first half of the 2021-22 DPC. The remaining 17 will be determined in the second half of the tournament, so we have three weeks of exciting Dota 2 action ahead.

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