What ‘The Wizard of Oz’ can teach us about inflation

The forward guide is never set in stone. For 2015, the Fed’s famous dot charts showed four rate hikes. Only one thing happened. Similarly, the central bank has projected in 2016 four increases; again, there is only one realization. These stand out because they are the exception rather than the rule. Overall, across jurisdictions, transitional guidance – when it comes to flaws – is mostly in favor of easier policy. Officials are always interested in showing that they are engaging in projections, not promises. Most people have adjusted it out. The tool will exist in some form, but there is a limit to its reliability. Based on recent events, a day or week prediction is just a good enough guess. We’re at a point no different from the conclusion of “The Wizard of Oz”. The wonderful and powerful voice behind the curtain revealed itself as a small man, frantically tinkering with the levers and dials of a world beyond his control. What ‘The Wizard of Oz’ can teach us about inflation


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