What can we expect from Justin Jefferson in Year 2 after his sensational rookie season?

Justin Jefferson simply acquired executed having among the best rookie seasons any large receiver has ever had. Regardless of not turning into a daily starter till Week 3, Jefferson completed the 12 months with 88 catches for 1,400 yards (a rookie file) and 7 touchdowns. 

Given his age (he turned 22 years previous in June), the Vikings‘ funding in him (he was a first-round choose, No. 22 general), the depth chart (he counts solely Adam Thielen amongst his goal competitors), and his expertise (he is an excellent route runner who confirmed he’s greater than able to enjoying each within the slot and out large, and successful on the discharge, on the stem, and on the catch level), it is pure to imagine he’ll simply maintain getting higher. 

Our personal Pete Prisco has very excessive hopes for Jefferson this season, for instance. “He’s going to be the very best receiver within the Nationwide Soccer League by the top of this 12 months,” stated Prisco of the dynamic receiver who returned to practice Monday for the primary time since Aug. 6 after injuring his shoulder. “I believe Jefferson is the actual deal. His receivers coach, Keenan McCardell, stated by the top of this season, Jefferson would be the finest receiver within the NFL. You possibly can take it to the financial institution.”

It is time for the Vikings to make their transfer within the NFC North. Can Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson get the job executed? Obtain the CBS Sports app to get the most recent headlines from our crew of NFL specialists. In the event you’ve already downloaded the CBS Sports activities app, favourite the Vikings proper now to get all the highest headlines out of Minnesota. 

Former Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback (and All Things Covered co-host) Bryant McFadden echoed Prisco’s sentiments, saying Jefferson’s ability set is exclusive in that he runs the gridiron like he is enjoying basketball and “it is laborious to check a man like him as a defensive again.”

“Greatest receiver within the NFL” is actually a excessive aircraft to succeed in. Does Jefferson have the expertise to get there? Presumably. The chance? In all probability, though he does nonetheless play for a comparatively low-volume passing crew that additionally performs at a sluggish tempo. 

However he is additionally not the primary large receiver to have an amazing rookie season and enter his sophomore marketing campaign with sky-high expectations. There are many gamers from the latest (and not-so-recent) previous to which we are able to evaluate him, to see what is perhaps an affordable baseline of manufacturing for Jefferson in Yr 2. To do that, we took a take a look at the highest 20 rookie seasons in catches, from Anquan Boldin to Joey Galloway, and peered into the long run at what they did throughout their second 12 months within the NFL. 

It is notable that there was a slight drop-off from Yr 1 to Yr 2 amongst this group, a lot of it unsurprisingly pushed by harm. To have pretty much as good (and even near pretty much as good) a rookie season as Jefferson did, it’s important to keep wholesome. Nevertheless it’s robust to remain wholesome yearly within the NFL, so it isn’t all that stunning that a number of of those gamers (Boldin and Glenn, for instance) handled numerous points that stored their numbers down within the 12 months following their rookie breakout. A few of them (like Royal and Clayton) simply couldn’t repeat the outcomes they’d in that first 12 months, which ended up being the very best of their respective careers. 

Some managed to enhance on their debut seasons, like Thomas and Beckham. That duo at the moment ranks amongst simply 9 gamers in trendy NFL historical past (i.e. for the reason that AFL-NFL merger) to start their profession with back-to-back 1,000-plus-yard receiving seasons. The others are Colston, Cooper, Evans, Moss, A.J. Brown, A.J. Green, and John Jefferson.

It is tempting to lump Justin Jefferson in with that group, as a result of his expertise is so immense. It is also price noting that even when he experiences the identical drop-off as the common receiver within the group of 20 above, he’d nonetheless end his second season with 87 catches for 1,349 yards and 4 touchdowns (assuming he stays wholesome and after accounting for the seventeenth recreation this season). That is nonetheless, uh, actually good. If that counts as a step backward, I believe the Vikings could be simply tremendous with the kind of participant he is turning into. 

There is no doubt that Jefferson’s ceiling is immense, and he has the potential to enhance upon what he did final 12 months. However progress is not all the time linear, and even when he takes a small step backward or laterally, he is nonetheless acquired the ability set to be a extremely terrific participant.