Week 3 college football picks, games, odds: Notre Dame, Miami, UCLA on upset alert

After a blistering begin to the season, Week 3 options numerous high groups enjoying overmatched opponents. Whereas there’s some intrigue as as to whether No. 11 Florida can keep inside two scores towards No. 1 Alabama, or to what extent No. 3 Oklahoma will run up the rating towards Nebraska, the extra intriguing matchups of the weekend are down the checklist. 

Preseason notion is beginning to cycle out, however Vegas nonetheless is not immune. Three video games on my checklist of upset alerts function groups ranked within the preseason AP Prime 25 which have achieved nothing to again up their rankings. That features a pair of ranked groups that simply might be 0-2 if not for some extraordinary luck. 

If the primary two weeks of the college football season have taught us something, it is to anticipate the sudden. I imply, for goodness sake, eight groups – together with three Energy 5 squads – misplaced to FCS opponents in one of many wackiest begins to a season shortly. 

Every week, I will deliver your consideration to among the extra neglected matchups of the weekend, each in your viewing pleasure – and, maybe, monetary. With out additional ado, listed here are 5 matchups that might be primed for upsets. 

Vital disclaimer: “upset” is outlined initially by the percentages, not rankings. 

When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | The place: Miami Gardens, Florida | Line: Miami -6.5

Why it is listed: The Hurricanes stay within the polls solely due to a lofty preseason rating. With a loss to labama and a 25-23 nail-biter over Appalachian State, their resume would not precisely impress. Michigan State crushed Massive Ten West defending champ Northwestern and Youngstown State in back-to-back weeks, however Saturday is its first true take a look at. 

Michigan State’s key to the sport: Working again Kenneth Walker III has been a revelation since transferring from Wake Forest, dashing for 321 yards and 5 touchdowns on simply 30 carries by means of the primary two video games. Miami has a robust protection entrance and competed decently with sturdy working video games at App State and Alabama. If Walker is ready to trigger some points – particularly if he can hit on some explosive runs – it opens up the sport dramatically for quarterback Payton Thorne

Miami’s key to the sport: The Hurricanes have solely scored three offensive touchdowns whereas settling for area targets contained in the opposing 30-yard line on 5 events. The one landing drive below 90 seconds got here off of an interception on the App State 6-yard line. We heard all offseason how receiver switch Charleston Rambo might present a much-needed downfield risk. The U must hit a number of explosive scores to make the sport simpler. The primary two video games have been a slog. 

Decide: The Spartans haven’t been actually examined by means of the primary two weeks of the yr, so it is troublesome to know precisely what the upside is in Week 3. Regardless, these are two groups heading in the other way. Michigan State may not be ok but to tug off the upset, however the Spartans are definitely ok to maintain the sport shut. ATS: Michigan State, SU: Miami

When: 12 p.m. ET | The place: Morgantown, West Virginia | Line: West Virginia -3

Why it is listed: It is a good instance of how upsets are outlined strictly by the books, not rankings. WVU misplaced its solely matchup towards a Energy 5 opponent. The Hokies have a win over ranked North Carolina

Virginia Tech key to the sport: To win, Virginia Tech solely must do what it does finest: play disciplined soccer. Which means avoiding penalties, turnovers and staying true to assignments in run matches. Essential to beating Sam Howell and North Carolina was forcing three interceptions with stress and positioning. Towards a a lot worse staff, these ideas ought to maintain true. 

West Virginia key to the sport: If West Virginia performs VT’s recreation of ball management and physicality, the Mountaineers are going to lose. The one strategy to reply is to get the Hokies off-schedule and WVU’s finest means to try this is with fast, brief passes. Whereas the Mountaineers have offensive problems with their very own, Jarret Doege, Leddie Brown and the receiver corps have to dictate the phrases of the sport. 

Decide: West Virginia has huge questions on offense and Virginia Tech is the proper staff to take benefit. It makes little sense that the Mountaineers are favored within the first place. Virginia Tech takes this recreation fairly simply. ATS: Virginia Tech, SU: Virginia Tech

When: 4:15 p.m. ET | The place: Seattle, Washington | Line: Washington -16.5

Why it is listed: To cowl the road towards Arkansas State, Washington has to win by 17 factors. Humorous sufficient, the Huskies have scored 17 factors complete by means of two video games. Arkansas State will surrender factors, however is Washington actually a staff that may take benefit? 

Arkansas State key to the sport: The Crimson Wolves have scored 90 factors by means of the primary two weeks whereas leaning on a uncommon, however profitable, two-quarterback system with Layne Hatcher and FSU switch James Blackman. The pair has mixed for 901 yards of complete offense, 9 touchdowns and nil interceptions. Arkansas State should assault down the sector early and infrequently. 

Washington key to the sport: Is it impolite to ask UW to do something helpful offensively? The Huskies are averaging 1.9 yards per carry, 4.5 yards per play and have turned the ball over 4 occasions. Arkansas State gave up 417 yards and 5 touchdowns to Memphis QB Seth Henigan final week, a number of on slants to Calvin Austin III, so leaning on the move recreation and making an attempt to out-athlete Arkansas State is perhaps the transfer?

Decide: There’s nothing to make us consider that Washington can clear 17 level offensively, a lot much less take a 17-point lead on one of many extra dynamic offenses in soccer. Washington in all probability wins this recreation, however the Crimson Wolves maintain issues aggressive. ATS: Arkansas State, SU: Washington

When: 2:30 p.m. ET | The place: South Bend, Indiana | Line: Notre Dame -7.5

Why it is listed: Do not look now, however Notre Dame’s begin to the season has been as a lot of a nightmare as a 2-0 begin may be. The Preventing Irish wanted time beyond regulation to beat a Florida State squad that rotated and promptly misplaced to Jacksonville State, after which wanted a late TD from Jack Coan to outlive Toledo. Purdue is unproven, however continues to be the most effective staff Notre Dame has confronted. That is not encouraging. 

Purdue key to the sport: The Boilermakers misplaced high rusher Zander Horvath to a broke fibula, however the setback might be a blessing in disguise. Over the previous two seasons, Plummer has quietly accomplished 72% of his passes for 1,496 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions in simply 5 video games. If Plummer can stay mistake-free, it should open up the run recreation towards a porous Notre Dame entrance. 

Notre Dame key to the sport: Purdue has been inconsistent working the ball, averaging simply 3.7 yards per carry and permitting eight tackles for loss per recreation. This might be considerably of a get-right recreation for the Notre Dame entrance. If the gifted line of defense can discover itself and let the linebackers do their factor in protection, it should make life harder for Purdue. 

Decide: Notre Dame has been enjoying with hearth and ultimately it should get burned. Towards a extremely underrated quarterback and artistic offensive head coach, this might be the week. My solely concern? Vegas is perhaps onto Notre Dame too. I might really feel extra snug with a double-digit line ATS: Purdue, SU: Purdue

When: 10:45 p.m. ET | The place: Pasadena, California | Line: UCLA -11.5

Why it is listed: The Bruins pulled off a powerful win over LSU to begin the yr and simply entered the AP Prime 25 consequently. However, on the opposite facet, this can be a Fresno State staff that was not intimidated by Oregon‘s expertise in Week 1 and saved the sport shut. May UCLA be in for a letdown recreation after the emotional victory? 

Fresno State key to the sport: UCLA has leaned on its floor recreation, working the ball on greater than 70% of its possessions. Due to that, UCLA off-schedule is crucial for Fresno State. 4 of the Bruins’ six scoring drives towards UCLA began with runs that cleared 12 yards. 

UCLA key to the sport: UCLA ought to look to the Oregon recreation plan. Fresno State had super success passing the ball, however three fumbles finally doomed the Bulldogs’ upset bid. Regardless of throwing the ball 91 occasions by means of his first three video games, gifted Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener has not been picked off but. Positioning itself for turnovers will shortly maintain FSU at bay. 

Decide: After seeing Oregon crush Ohio State on the street, Fresno State ought to really feel assured that it could possibly bodily compete with UCLA. The Bruins should be cautious to not overlook this highly-experienced Bulldogs staff like Oregon did. ATS: Fresno State, SU: UCLA | Week 3 faculty soccer picks, video games, odds: Notre Dame, Miami, UCLA on upset alert


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