Unmasking the NFL’s pretenders is the upcoming playoff: An indicator of who’s the real one amid the mess

In football, you want seven, not three (or none). The goal is to touch down. The goal is a consolation prize. And, yes, this old adage should probably be updated to want eight, not three, because two-point conversions are more prevalent than ever.

But you get the point.

It would be assumed that the teams that scored the most touchdowns and missed the fewest touchdowns would have the best track record of winning all, or at least well-considered. Certainly, there are other metrics – like turnover rate, or the difference between passer-by ratings or season-starters – that one can use as a predictor of success. But net touchdowns seems like a pretty good place to start.

We’re always looking for ways to quantify teams or gauge how much luck, fortune or defiance has gone into the team’s overall performance. Are there some teams that could have deserved a better or worse record? I’m not smart enough or mathematically inclined enough to pretend I have the answer to that question, but I’ve spent some time researching the difference between taps down to make interesting fodder. , as one considers the length of the season to try to juggle a jumble of teams in each conference at a time when the outcome seems ever more unpredictable.

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For example, if the knockout starts now, Ravens will be the top seed in AFC. However, they only ranked 10th in that convention in terms of touchdowns. Baltimore (8-3) actually had two more touches on the ball than it had scored, while Miami (5-7), a seemingly dead team on a seven-game losing streak, was actually just behind the Ravens by the scoreline. -3. Oh, and Dolphin beat Raven just a few weeks ago and have gone on four straight wins.

Katherine shows you how close the returns are and how weird this game can be.

But I also believe it is speaking. The Ravens aren’t an elite team in terms of attack or defense (the team’s totals look gaudy but they’re fueled by the quartet’s out-of-the-box runs; the backrunners themselves are mostly all of them. lower than the league average). It was an official error and longest field goal in NFL history for Raven to beat undefeated Lion, they escaped Brown last week despite having four innings, and they dropped as many big plays as any team in the NFL. It looks like they are having a significant advantage over the Pythagorean scene with their current seed 9 places above the position they sit in encounters against the AFC grid.

Here are the top 10 in terms of the TD AFC difference:

1. Buffalo +18
2. New England +13
3. Cincinnati +12
4. Indianapolis +5
5. Kansas City, Tennessee +4
7. Denver +2
8. LA Charger +1
9. Baltimore -2
10. Miami, Cleveland -3

If you are optimistic about Colts – and I – and believe they are better than their records, this may provide some evidence. Also another factor is that Indianapolis has a 5-3 record in the game, with some weak AFC South opponents still playing, and you can build up the situation for them in the post-season. prize.

In NFC, there are also some interesting things to glean from this metric. NS Eagle should have won on Sunday – they dominated Giant but couldn’t get over it with their odd runs, passes and turns in the red zone – and it looks like they might as well have a race against them with their superior running and improving play defense. They have a TD+2 differential in the season, and I believe they can be better than their 5-7 record.

Despite experiencing injuries in many key positions, but Saints surprisingly ranked fourth in NFC with a difference of +7. If they can get a little stronger and get anything more out of midfield, will they be able to run despite getting 5-6? I won’t rule them out. And the fact that two teams in the same league – Atlanta and New Orleans – have the same record (5-6), while one is +7 and the other is -14, makes me curious.

The only NFC teams with a higher touchdown than the Saints are Quantity and Bucs (+15) and Cowboys (+12). I also find it remarkable that while it appears Packers (9-3) will disappear with NFC North, Vikings (5-6) is at +2 and Green Bay is only +3. Minnesota beat them a few weeks ago, and the Vikings are the team that are constantly looking to lose somehow, the proof is here.

The overall depth in the AFC looks pretty amazing. What about the 12 teams with a record of .500 or higher at the end of this season, and the 4 teams that are 12-34 combined? And soon, Miami could also raise it to the .500 level.

All Northern AFC teams are above .500; that team is 10-4-1 combined with NFC. AFC West also has no teams below .500; That division is 11-5 compared to NFC. And the bottom three teams of the AFC group – with a total of seven wins – have a total of four wins against the winners ( Titan responsible for two of those losses – for Jet plane and Texans).

With the added game week, the playoff chase could be more boisterous than ever. New England’s win on Monday over Buffalo would take the Pats 7-1 in the AFC, marking the furthest and farthest in that convention. NS Bengali Next is the best with 5-2 and a win over the Chargers would also put them in a great position to claim one of the playoffs.

And with so many split games to be played, we’re definitely aiming for more variation. The crows and ChiefFor example, each team played only two games in its division, and each team in the AFC had at least two unplayed divisional matches.

Seatbelt. It must be a nut.