The Six Pack: Michigan-Michigan State, Auburn-Ole MIss among best Week 9 college football bets

I’ve reached the purpose the place I am contemplating determining what my Lock of the Week must be … after which going in opposition to it for my decide. I am having a superb season general at 28-20 following a 4-2 efficiency final week, however the Lock of the Week was incorrect but once more, dropping it to 3-5 on the yr. Which means I am 3-5 on my favourite play of the week and 25-15 on the opposite 40.

I am not going to do it, although. I’ll belief my instincts and hope issues even out as we method the again half of the 2021 common season. Except it loses once more this week, that’s. 

All odds are through Caesars Sportsbook

Video games of the Week

No. 6 Michigan at No. 8 Michigan State 

Newest Odds:

Michigan Wolverines

Imagine it or not, that is solely the 18th time within the lengthy historical past between these packages that each groups are ranked on the time. It is solely the fifth time each have been ranked within the high 10, with the final one being all the way in which again in 1967. This recreation may even function the hardest take a look at for both up to now, and whereas I am leaning Michigan’s route, I am unable to move up the Spartans and the factors.

As environment friendly because the Wolverines’ offense has been (twelfth nationally in factors per possession, twenty second in success fee), it is also one-dimensional. Michigan runs the ball 65.4% of the time, which is the sixth-highest fee within the nation. It does this as a result of it is good at working the ball … and never so good at throwing it. Michigan State’s protection has not been nice in opposition to the run by any stretch, but it surely’s laborious to cowl as a street favourite while you run the ball as usually because the Wolverines do with out providing a lot within the passing recreation. 

And whereas Michigan’s offense has been sturdy general, it ranks 67th nationally in crimson zone effectivity. That is one other issue that makes it troublesome for me to belief them as favorites of this dimension in opposition to a Michigan State offense that is succesful as properly. Michigan 27, Michigan State 24 | Michigan State +4

Newest Odds:

Below 66

No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 18 Auburn: The totals for Ole Miss video games proceed to be posted too excessive, however you will not hear any complaints from me. Betting the underneath in Ole Miss video games has been a worthwhile 3-1 within the Rebels’ 4 SEC video games. Ole Miss has averaged 3.34 factors per possession with a hit fee of 51.6% on the season, however these numbers drop to 2.93 factors per possession and 47.9% in SEC play. That features the Arkansas recreation when the Rebels scored 4.33 factors per possession. Merely put, this offense hasn’t been pretty much as good as it has been perceived.

Ole Miss can be on the street in opposition to an Auburn protection that ranks thirtieth in factors allowed per possession and has been stable all season lengthy. The Tigers even have an offense that is not spectacular, however they’ll have the ability to management the ball, maintaining Matt Corral and Co. off the sphere as a lot as doable. This is not going to be a boring rock combat, but it surely’s not going to be a shootout, both. Auburn 31, Ole Miss 27 | Below 66

Lock of the Week

Newest Odds:

Maryland Terrapins

Indiana at Maryland: The Hoosiers have been one of many season’s greatest disappointments, however we in all probability should not maintain that in opposition to them. Sure, they’re solely 2-5, however these losses got here to Iowa, Cincinnati, Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State. All 5 are at the moment ranked within the high 20 of the AP High 25 and have a mixed file of 31-2. So you may need to forgive me if I am not able to belief Maryland as a 5.5-point favourite when it is solely 4-3 itself.

The Terps’ lone Huge Ten win was 20-17 over 3-5 Illinois, they usually’ve been outscored 151-47 of their final three video games in opposition to Iowa, Ohio State and Minnesota. Maryland has additionally been one of many worst crimson zone offenses within the nation, scoring touchdowns on solely 50% of their journeys. It is laborious to belief a staff that may’t end drives to cowl as a favourite, so I am not going to. Indiana 27, Maryland 24 | Indiana +5.5

Below of the Week

Newest Odds:

Below 43

Minnesota at Northwestern: There’s not rather a lot to consider right here. Minnesota has been fairly restricted offensively, rating 67th in factors scored per possession and forty eighth in success fee. These numbers aren’t dangerous, however the Gophers offense is not dissimilar to that of an choice staff. They run the ball 70% of the time. Solely Military, Air Pressure and Navy run the ball extra continuously. That is a part of the rationale Minnesota has run solely 455 performs on offense — that ranks 108th nationally — as a result of the clock by no means stops. On the opposite aspect, Northwestern’s offense is horrible in each metric. Whether or not on the bottom or within the air, the Wildcats cannot do a lot of something. They rank 117th in factors per possession and 102nd in success fee. They’ve solely managed to attain on 24.4% of their possessions, which ranks 122nd.

Defensively, neither staff is elite, however each are good. Add all of it up, and also you’re more likely to get a reasonably boring recreation. Minnesota 23, Northwestern 16 | Below 43.5

Over of the Week

Newest Odds:

Over 54.5

Kansas at No. 15 Oklahoma State: I am going in opposition to the grain on this one, however the complete is just too low. Now, the rationale it is so low is that Oklahoma State ranks 107th in factors per possession whereas Kansas is 118th. In success fee, Oklahoma State is 83rd whereas Kansas is in useless final at one hundred and thirtieth. They have been dangerous! However not so dangerous that I do not assume they will attain the over.

Whereas the Cowboys’ general numbers have not been nice, they’ve confronted loads of stable defenses. The Kansas protection they will face on Saturday just isn’t stable, nonetheless; it is horrible. The Jayhawks pair an offense that ranks 118th nationally in factors per possession with a protection that ranks 129th in factors allowed per possession. Kansas’ opponents have scored on an unbelievable 55.7% of their possessions. Solely the UMass protection has allowed factors extra usually. So whereas I am banking on the Oklahoma State offense to do many of the work in reaching this over, I believe that the Jayhawks will just do sufficient to get us previous it too. Oklahoma State 48, Kansas 17 | Over 54.5

Intestine Test of the Week

Newest Odds:

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech: It is a scary proposition. Virginia Tech is at a pivotal a part of their season. Coach Justin Fuente is on a boiling seat after shedding the final three video games, and now the Hokies are on the street in opposition to a reasonably mediocre Georgia Tech. If the Hokies lose this one, we may see the discharge asserting Fuente’s firing on Sunday.

It is a must-win for the Hokies, and whereas the staff hasn’t been good, this hasn’t struck me because the sort of state of affairs wherein it has give up on its coach. In case you do not need to comply with me right here, that is wonderful, however my numbers and my intestine inform me that is the fitting play, and I belief what they’re telling me. Virginia Tech 31, Georgia Tech 28 | Virginia Tech +4

SportsLine Choose of the Week

No. 20 Penn State at No. 5 Ohio State: Whoops! I ran out of house right here, however I’ve a play on this recreation I like rather a lot. If you wish to see what it’s, just check out my SportsLine page.

Video games of the Week



Lock of the Week






Which college football picks are you able to make with confidence in Week 9, and which top-10 staff will go down laborious? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a confirmed pc mannequin that has returned nearly $3,900 in revenue over the previous five-plus seasons — and discover out. | The Six Pack: Michigan-Michigan State, Auburn-Ole MIss amongst finest Week 9 faculty soccer bets


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