The Six Pack: Auburn vs. Texas A&M, Michigan State vs. Purdue among best Week 10 college football bets

It is time to cease arguing with all people concerning the Faculty Soccer Playoff rankings and get again to work getting cash. Final week was fabulous for The Six Pack as a result of not solely did my Lock of the Week win for as soon as, however the column went 5-1 general. That improves The Six Pack to 33-21 on the season, and I am not going to lie, that is superior. Anytime you may hit on greater than 60% of your picks, you are going to have an excellent time.

In fact, it additionally means there’s in all probability some regression coming, however we’ll ignore that prefer it’s the kitchen trash can that’s positively full, however perhaps you may squeeze just a few extra issues in there when you attempt arduous. Something to maintain from having to take it out, proper?

Possibly evaluating this column to a trash can is not the perfect vibe to be placing on the market, however I am simply that assured proper now, so let’s get to the picks. All odds are by way of Caesars Sportsbook.

Video games of the Week

Featured Sport | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Auburn Tigers

No. 13 Auburn at No. 14 Texas A&M: Do you belief both of those offenses proper now? To Zach Calzada’s credit score, he is improved seemingly each week as Texas A&M’s beginning quarterback after a sluggish begin. The crescendo was the win over Alabama, however he is continued placing up stable numbers in opposition to Missouri and South Carolina. In fact, neither group is nice defensively. On the opposite aspect, Bo Nix lit up Arkansas and Ole Miss the final couple of weeks, however a variety of groups have carried out that. 

So which quarterbacks present up this weekend? My inkling is that an Auburn offense that has struggled in opposition to stable defensive fronts will return to kind in opposition to the Aggies. I additionally anticipate the Texas A&M offense to come back again to Earth a bit in opposition to a stable Auburn protection. Ultimately, I feel we find yourself with an entertaining, shut affair in Faculty Station, however not one which lights up the scoreboard too typically. Texas A&M 27, Auburn 20 | Beneath 49

Featured Sport | Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan State Spartans

No. 3 Michigan State at Purdue: It is a difficult spot for Michigan State, so I am avoiding the unfold. Not solely are the Spartans coming off a large win over rival Michigan, however now they’re on the street in opposition to Purdue, which simply cannot cease beating groups it is not imagined to. So I will assault the overall as a result of — very a lot to my shock given preseason expectations — this Boilermakers protection is superb. It ranks tenth nationally in defensive success fee and twelfth in factors allowed per possession.

In case you watched Michigan State final week, you noticed working again Kenneth Walker III go off with a number of chunk yardage performs, however that is nothing new. The Spartans offense is constructed round large performs, rating eleventh nationally in my explosiveness metric. The issue is that whereas Sparty is explosive, it is not constant or environment friendly. It ranks fiftieth in offensive success fee and fortieth in factors per drive. It additionally struggles within the crimson zone, scoring touchdowns on 61.3% of their crimson zone possessions (68th nationally). Purdue is even worse, rating 109th at 51.6%. 

Once I have a look at this matchup, I see a end result that may go a variety of alternative ways, however extra of them will end under this complete than above it. Bear in mind: the Video games of the Week part is used for … the most important video games of the week (duh) … however that does not all the time imply I love the decide. Since there wasn’t an apparent alternative for a second Sport of the Week, that ought to inform you I like this play. Michigan State 28, Purdue 20 | Beneath 54

Lock of the Week

Featured Sport | Air Drive Falcons vs. Military West Level Black Knights

Military at Air Drive: Let me bust out the identical script I have been utilizing in video games between service academies for the final nonetheless a few years. Ahem: Since 2005, the below is 39-9-1 when service academies play. That is as a result of service academies run possibility offenses. Which means they run the ball loads! Military runs the ball 89.1% of the time, whereas Air Drive runs 87.8% of the time. These are the 2 highest dashing charges within the nation (Navy, an alternative choice offense, is third). When groups run the ball, the clock doesn’t cease. When the clock does not cease, it limits the general variety of possessions every group has, which places a critical cap on what number of factors can be scored.

And that is why the below cashes so steadily in video games between service academies. In case you assume the overall is just too low, I get it, however do not be scared. The final 10 video games between academies (since 2018) have averaged 33.2 factors per recreation, and that features a 34-25 Navy win over Air Drive in 2019. Military 21, Air Drive 14 | Beneath 37

Good Canine of the Week

Featured Sport | Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee at No. 18 Kentucky: I’ve a sneaking suspicion that Kentucky has been uncovered. The Wildcats got here into the 2021 season with a brand new offense that no one had seen but and the early outcomes have been spectacular. Of their first two video games in opposition to ULM and Missouri, the offense had successful fee of 54.4% and averaged 3.2 factors per possession. In six video games since, they’ve had successful fee of 51.2% and averaged 1.84 factors per possession. That is a steep drop-off, and whereas the final two video games in opposition to Georgia and Mississippi State had loads to do with it, there have been warning indicators already. 

Now, Tennessee’s offensive performances have fluctuated from week to week, too. There’s not a variety of consistency there, however this group can strike shortly and sometimes. I’ve issues about Kentucky’s offense if it will get behind and must chase factors. This is not an ideal matchup for Kentucky, both, as a result of though Tennessee is a run-heavy offense, it passes the ball nicely, rating fifteenth nationally with a passing effectivity of 159.2. Kentucky’s protection has carried out a lot better in opposition to the run than the move, rating eighth in defensive passing effectivity and one hundred and fifteenth in defensive success fee in opposition to the move. Tennessee 28, Kentucky 24 | Tennessee +1

Unhealthy Workforce of the Week

Featured Sport | Texas State Bobcats vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks

ULM at Texas State: That is an occasion by which energy rankings and analytics inform you that ULM must be the underdog as a result of, although 4-4, it has been outscored by 122 factors on the season. However that is additionally an occasion by which it’s good to shove the analytics in a sack and drown them as a result of listening to them means you are trusting Texas State to cowl a selection as a favourite.

You don’t need to belief Texas State as a favourite. At the least, I definitely do not. The Bobcats are 2-6 and have a -113 level differential of their very own to take care of. These are two unhealthy groups squaring off, with two unhealthy offenses and two horrible defenses. What now we have right here is solely a scenario by which neither group deserves to be favored in opposition to anyone, so we’re betting on the underdog. ULM 31, Texas State 27 | ULM +3.5

One Extra Beneath of the Week

Featured Sport | TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears

No. 12 Baylor at TCU: Baylor is likely one of the extra attention-grabbing tales of the 2021 season as a result of it went 2-7 final season and I did not see a lot purpose for hope this 12 months. I beloved that coach Dave Aranda employed Jeff Grimes from BYU to run the offense, however I didn’t assume he’d have as vital an influence as he is had. Baylor abruptly remodeled from a group attempting to win video games 13-10 to a group that may beat you in numerous methods. 

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Now, the Bears are hitting the street to face a TCU group in shambles after Gary Patterson was let go on Sunday. I did not have a variety of religion within the Frogs earlier than the Patterson resolution and I’ve even much less now. Additionally, Aranda has a ton of respect for Patterson (as do many different coaches). That is possible a situation by which Baylor takes management of the sport after which simply takes its foot off the fuel within the second half. That is why I am not a large fan of the unfold, however will as an alternative add yet one more below to this week’s card. Baylor 31, TCU 20 | Beneath 58

SportsLine Decide of the Week

No. 5 Ohio State at Nebraska: Effectively, I ran out of room within the column this week, however I’ve one other play I like. If you would like to search out out what it’s, all you need to do is head over to my SportsLine web page.

Video games of the Week



Lock of the Week






Which faculty soccer picks are you able to make with confidence in Week 10, and which High 25 group will get surprised? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a confirmed laptop mannequin that has returned nearly $3,700 in revenue over the previous five-plus seasons — and discover out. | The Six Pack: Auburn vs. Texas A&M, Michigan State vs. Purdue amongst finest Week 10 faculty soccer bets


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