The Six Pack: Alabama vs. Ole Miss, Arkansas vs. Georgia among best Week 5 college football picks

Whereas I am by no means going to have a look at a profitable and worthwhile begin to the season as a adverse, I come into Week 5 of the school soccer season irritated with my efficiency over the past two weeks. Sure, I could be 14-10 on the season, however I am solely 6-6 over the past two weeks, and I am not right here to donate juice to your guide.

The mediocrity ends this week. After a considerably uninteresting slate in Week 4 with reference to marquee matchups, this week brings two top-10 battles and 4 video games between ranked groups total. There’s loads of worth on the board, and a few of it occurs to be discovered within the greatest video games, so let’s get to the winners.

As all the time, strains and odds are by way of Caesars Sportsbook.

Video games of the Week

Newest Odds:

Beneath 48

No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia: Arkansas has been a godsend to bettors up to now, not solely going 4-0 on the sector however 4-0 ATS. Sadly for me, I have been on the shedding finish of two of these 4 covers on this column. That modifications this week as a result of I am not betting the unfold. Fact be informed, I might lean Georgia’s means if I have been to take a aspect of the unfold right here. The Bulldogs have been probably the most full group within the nation. Nonetheless, I see way more worth obtainable on the whole.

This recreation might play out certainly one of two methods: both Georgia cruises to a simple win and suffocates the Arkansas offense prefer it has everyone else, or the Hogs maintain it shut with their protection and restrict what Georgia can do offensively. Regardless, it must be a low-scoring affair since each groups have excellent defenses. Georgia enters the sport ranked first nationally in defensive success price, whereas Arkansas is not too far behind in sixteenth. Georgia 31, Arkansas 14 | Beneath 48.5

Newest Odds:

Alabama Crimson Tide

No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama: If we predict again to final 12 months’s assembly, it looks as if what most individuals bear in mind is Ole Miss placing up 48 factors on Alabama in Oxford. And it did! Sadly, the half that appears to be forgotten is the Rebels nonetheless misplaced by 15 as a result of Alabama put up 63 factors. 

Alabama truly obtained off to a sluggish begin in that recreation. It scored on its first possession to tie the sport at 7-7, however then fumbled deep in Ole Miss territory on its subsequent possession and punted on its third. However then the Tide scored touchdowns on every of their last eight possessions. 

My concern is not the Ole Miss offense — it is the protection that I am not shopping for but. The Rebels are improved in that space, however they nonetheless rank sixtieth nationally in defensive success price in opposition to a schedule that hasn’t been crammed with unbelievable offenses. Plus, the Rebels did not flip the ball over on this recreation final 12 months and nonetheless misplaced by double digits. I believe it will be a distinct story in Tuscaloosa. Alabama 49, Ole Miss 31 | Alabama -14.5

Lock of the Week

Newest Odds:

Oregon Geese

No. 3 Oregon at Stanford: I made the error of trusting Stanford at house in opposition to UCLA final week and appeared silly for it. I am not going to make that mistake once more. Initially, Oregon must be favored by 12.5 factors on this matchup based on my energy scores, so there isn’t any means I can move it up. However you are not right here only for my numbers, so I am going to clarify additional.

Stanford is gentle as Charmin defensively. The Cardinal rank 118th nationally in defensive success price and permit 2.39 factors per possession, which ranks 109th. If we take away the sport in opposition to Vanderbilt — one of many worst offenses within the nation — that 2.39 factors per possession jumps to 2.56, which ranks 114th. 

Oregon is just not solely the extra proficient group, nevertheless it’s been higher on either side of the ball. The Geese remind me of Ohio State within the Massive Ten over the previous few years in that they are simply head and shoulders above the remainder of their convention proper now. Oregon 34, Stanford 21 | Oregon -8

Beneath of the Week

Newest Odds:

Beneath 50.5

No. 7 Cincinnati at No. 9 Notre Dame: Greater than something, I belief these defenses greater than the offenses. Plus, whereas I am not betting the unfold, there’s one thing about Cincinnati being favored in South Bend that strikes me as disrespectful to the Irish. Do not get me incorrect, the Bearcats are actually good. Nonetheless, this would be the most formidable protection they’ve seen in 2021 and probably the most difficult atmosphere by which they’re going to have performed. Due to that, Cincinnati will need to maintain issues a bit extra conservative.

As for the Irish, they rank nineteenth in defensive success price — Cincinnati is tenth — however offensively they have been inconsistent as a result of they can not run the ball. Notre Dame ranks 128th nationally at 2.29 yards per carry and 108th in complete rush EPA. I do not see this group figuring issues out in opposition to a Cincinnati protection that ranks fifteenth nationally in success price in opposition to the run. I do not know who wins, nevertheless it will not be high-scoring. Notre Dame 24, Cincinnati 21 | Beneath 50.5

Over of the Week

Newest Odds:

Over 47.5

Minnesota at Purdue: We will reap the benefits of public notion right here. Initially, Minnesota is coming off of a stunning upset vs. Bowling Inexperienced at house. Public opinion of the Gophers is not going to be any decrease than it’s proper now. Then there’s Purdue, which has performed musical chairs at QB with Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell. And neither offense has been good on a factors per drive foundation. Minnesota ranks 71st nationally at 2.13, whereas Purdue is 77th at 2.06. Nonetheless, what skews this complete is that Purdue ranks eighth nationally in defensive success price whereas Minnesota ranks twenty second.

However even these numbers lack context by themselves. Purdue’s numbers are helped tremendously by video games in opposition to UConn and Illinois. The Boilermakers protection wasn’t practically as efficient in opposition to Oregon State and Notre Dame. Then there’s Minnesota’s win over Colorado, which hasn’t moved the ball in opposition to anybody. Of their first two video games in opposition to Ohio State and Miami (OH), the Gophers protection wasn’t practically as clear. 

Put all of it collectively, and also you get a recreation with a complete that is just a little decrease than it must be. This recreation will probably be higher-scoring than the road suggests and I might take it at something beneath 52. Purdue 28, Minnesota 24 | Over 47.5

Underdog of the Week

Newest Odds:

Rice Owls

Southern Miss at Rice: I have been burned by Southern Miss already. I took them to cowl in opposition to South Alabama to open the season and appeared like a moron for it. Effectively, I am again once more, and I do not assume I am going to look as silly this time. This is not the form of recreation any of you may be dying to look at, however it’s one we are able to exploit. 

These are two dangerous groups, however the distinction is that Southern Miss has no less than proven some competence in a single space. The Golden Eagles rank 81st nationally in offensive success price, however 18th in defensive success price. That is vital as a result of Rice ranks 108th  and 113th, respectively, in those self same classes. 

Now, it must be identified that Rice has performed the tougher schedule thus far, however that is nonetheless a drastic distinction defensively between these two. And that distinction is why I am not trusting Rice to cowl as a favourite. Truthfully, how will you again a group that is performed so poorly to win, not to mention cowl? Southern Miss 24, Rice 20 | Southern Miss +2.5

SportsLine Decide of the Week

No. 14 Michigan at Wisconsin: Whoops! I ran out of room in The Six Pack, and there is one other guess this weekend I like. If you wish to know what it’s, you can find it on my SportsLine page.

Video games of the Week



Lock of the Week






Which college football picks are you able to make with confidence in Week 5, and which Prime 25 favourite goes down arduous? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a confirmed pc mannequin that has returned nearly $3,000 in revenue over the previous five-plus seasons — and discover out. | The Six Pack: Alabama vs. Ole Miss, Arkansas vs. Georgia amongst greatest Week 5 school soccer picks


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