So think about what occurred in 4 units of polls: the 2016 and 2020 presidential votes, the 2021 California recall and the 2014 and 2018 midterm elections. In 2016 and 2020, with Trump on the poll, polls understated Republican help. Within the pre-Trump period of 2014, polls additionally missed a surge in Republican help. In 2018, although, with Trump not on the poll and Democrats energized in opposition to him, the polls have been largely correct. Within the California recall, the polls at this level appear to have once more understated Democratic help.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/15/polls-didnt-undercount-trump-voters-this-time-if-anything-problem-was-reversed/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=wp_politics | The polls didn’t undercount Trump voters this time. If something, the issue was reversed.