Retailers attract both ways by industry, economic force – WWD

Because the Black Friday On weekends, no one is expecting a retail barbecue – nor will it be anywhere near turkey.

Natural evolution and consumer dynamics could yield better-than-expected results, especially as many retailers enter the fourth quarter with momentum after posting third-quarter earnings, despite although a degree of caution still pervades the industry.

“We’re excited about the weekend but we don’t expect to see a huge peak and then a period of total quiet after that. It will be like last year when there is more continuity,” Fran Horowitz, chief executive officer of Abercrombie & Fitch Co., told WWD on Tuesday.

“As supply chain challenges continued to fall, holiday shoppers were quick to realize that a tortoise,” said Stephen Rogers, executive director of the Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry Center. worth two in the bush. “While Thanksgiving spending will increase, overall engagement will decline slightly. Many shoppers already have items on their wish lists and take advantage of retailers” Black Friday‘provided. That said, early holiday shoppers are still set to spend more during Thanksgiving, presenting a cheery opportunity for both in-store and online retailers. ”

After being mostly virtual last year, 56% of consumers are planning to shop in-store, up from 41% last year, according to Deloitte’s holiday survey of 4,315 consumers conducted online. routed by an independent research firm September 7-14.

At the National Retail Federation, “We are looking forward to another record holiday season this year and Thanksgiving weekend will play an important role as always. However, consumers are starting earlier than ever to make sure they can get what they want, when they want, for the price they want to pay. Black Friday ceased to be a one-day event many years ago, and this year some consumers are starting to shop for Christmas earlier than Halloween,” said Matthew Shay, president and chief executive officer for the company. know. “The NRF is encouraging consumers to shop safely and shop early, but retailers are confident they have enough inventory to meet holiday demand.”

During the three-day Black Friday weekend, the NRF estimated 158.3 million people, up from 156.6 million last year but still lower than 165.3 million in pre-pandemic 2019, will be out shopping. It is according to a NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics survey of 7,837 adult consumers November 1 through 10. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percent.

The survey found that 30.6 million people plan to shop in-store or online on Thanksgiving Day; 108 million will shop on Black Friday; 58.1 million on Small Business Saturday; 31.2 million on Sunday and 62.8 million on Cyber ​​Monday. The sum of the daily numbers exceeds the overall number because some consumers will shop for days.

According to the International Council of Malls, consumers are preparing for the Thanksgiving weekend with “careful enthusiasm.”

Jeff Gennette, president and chief executive officer of Macy’s Inc., is among the more optimistic, believing that Black Friday will remain a big-ticket sales day, on par with previous years. Until Black Friday is hit by all the previous holiday sales going on, “I don’t think it’s going to be,” Gennette told WWD. “Black Friday has always been an event in itself. I think it’s been a pilgrimage and now customers are getting out of the house,” after being taken care of by COVID-19.

“America will come out of it,” Gennette said. “Black Friday has always been this great opportunity and Macy’s performed very well with our Thanksgiving Day parade.”

Gennette said the real question is how much of a shopping lull occurs after Cyber ​​Monday. Historically, retailers have typically seen a huge shopping lull following Cyber ​​Monday until about 10 days before Christmas when business will resume. However, with holiday shopping earlier in the past two years, this pattern has grown in popularity.

This year, retailers are facing supply chain shortages, labor shortages, raging energy surges, and widespread inflation, all while being aware that consumers are starting to shift their spending. Their spending shifts from material goods to experiences like traveling and eating out more often. Retailers have so far managed to make up for all of that, reporting solid Q3 revenue and profit boosted by increased consumer demand, selling at fuller prices, and an influx of people. Traffic at stores and malls increased steadily.

Forecasts for the 2021 holiday season are generally bullish, mostly in the high single-digit range. NRF predicts holiday sales for November and December will grow from 8.5% to 10.5% year over year, to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion. Consumers are expected to spend an average of $997.73.

Mastercard predicts a 7.4% increase in US retail sales excluding autos and gas; Customer Growth Partners saw a 6.7 percent increase in US retail sales; AlixPartners expects a 10 to 13% increase from last year’s holiday season, and KPMG expects holiday sales to be 7% higher.

Specifically for the Black Friday weekend, a number of factors were in favor of retailers. Temperatures are dropping, which will spur seasonal purchases. Many of the stores, including Target, Kohl’s and Macy’s, will close on Thanksgiving Day for the second year in a row. That pushes business into Black Friday. For about a decade before COVID-19, retailers were still opening stores on Thanksgiving, dragging Black Friday down.

Meanwhile, in-store traffic has been inching up since the fall and back-to-school season, as students return to classrooms and offices begin to see employees return. Pervasive reports of supply shortages have caused consumers to fear they won’t get the gifts they want to buy, so many will show up on Black Friday.

The days after Thanksgiving always have a lot of traffic and business at the stores. But last year, with no history, retailers that spiked on Black Friday have long been accustomed to consumers being constantly vigilant about the pandemic and retailers launching early holiday campaigns and Black Friday deals, thus extending the holiday shopping season and eliminating the pattern of shopping.

During this season, retailers reported similarly earlier purchases, along with full-price sales and higher average unit retail prices. However, this week has already had many promotional steps to launch before Black Friday weekend. For example, Apple advertised that Friday through Monday, shoppers will be able to receive a $50 gift card on qualifying iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac purchases, among other products. . Intermix launched a designer sale with 40% off. Pura Vida is having Black Friday sale Tuesday through Saturday, 50% off sitewide and free shipping, and last Sunday, Lands’ End was offering turtleneck socks starting at $9. and up to 70% off everything else.

“On a national level, seasonal sales will increase because it will be cold in major urban centers, including New York and Chicago,” said Evan Gold, Executive Vice President of Planalytics. Gold, executive vice president of Planalytics said.

According to Planalytics, temperatures will be cooler in the Northeast, Southeast and Great Lakes, which will stimulate sales of seasonal apparel, such as outerwear, gloves, hats, scarves, and down comforters. sheep and heaters.

Temperatures in New York over the weekend of Black Friday will be in the mid-40s, about 10 degrees colder than last year, according to forecasts. Chicago will be below freezing, about 27 degrees on Black Friday, or 12 degrees colder than last year and will be one of the coldest markets in the country. However, Los Angeles is expected to be in the mid-60s, about 9 degrees warmer than last year, and will be negative in terms of seasonal categories. Casper, Wyoming and Denver will also be warmer, in their 40s, than in their 20s last year.

“If you’re allocating inventory based on what happened last year, you’re bound to lose money,” says Gold. “Weather very rarely repeats every year and is more volatile now than in previous years.”

While there will be rain and precipitation, no traffic restrictions are expected. Last year, the Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend was the warmest and driest since 2017, according to Planalytics.

Shoppers are expected to spend an average of $491 over the course of next weekend, according to the ICSC Thanksgiving Intent Survey conducted online with 1,015 respondents by Engine Insights between the 12th and 14th. 11. Key factors for shoppers to decide where they will shop and make purchases over Thanksgiving weekend include offers and promotions (36 percent); product availability (31 percent), and variety of products and styles (22 percent).

Tom McGee, ICSC President and CEO commented: “The holiday shopping season kicked off earlier this year and we expect a busy Thanksgiving weekend with consumers looking for gifts and supplies. individual. “Black Friday promotions also kicked off earlier this year and will kick off during the weekend as consumers search for deals and prioritize getting the best price on their purchases. .”

The ICSC said that of those who visit malls and shopping malls this holiday season, 59% plan to actually shop in stores; 47 percent will dine at a restaurant; 24 percent will go to the movies and 15 percent will take a picture of a child with Santa.

The NRF survey indicates that 66% of holiday shoppers plan to shop over the Thanksgiving-Black Friday weekend this year. Among Thanksgiving Day shoppers, 65% are likely to shop in stores, up from 50% last year, when concerns about COVID-19 still kept many people at home. On Black Friday, 64% are likely to shop in stores, up from 51% last year.

For weekend shoppers, “too good to miss” deals remained the top reason, cited by 58%, but tradition continued to be second with 28%.

Although the Thanksgiving weekend will be busy, 61% of those surveyed have already started holiday shopping, close to 59% last year but up from 51% in 2011. The survey found 46% started earlier this year than they usually do. While much of the shopping is likely yet to come, consumers completed 28% of their holiday shopping in early November.

“Early shopping is a trend we’ve seen for years and it started long before the pandemic,” said Phil Rist, vice president of strategy at Prosper. “While some consumers enjoy the thrill of last-minute shopping and others just procrastinate, many prefer the comfort of shopping early so they can relax and enjoy the season.”

Clothing continues to top consumer shopping gift lists. Of those surveyed, 53% would give clothes as a gift. Forty-six percent will give gift cards; followed by toys with 39%; books/music/movies/video games at 35 percent and food/candy at 31 percent. Retailers attract both ways by industry, economic force – WWD


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