Republicans may have a hard time winning in 2024 if they win in 2022

Price as of 2023.

Imagine that instead of going back one hour, we went back two years. In that case, Republicans would be willing to boost the momentum of the year’s significant victories – not least of them. clean all in Virginia – until next November.

With Biden’s horrible approval ratings, and even worse for Kamala Harris, now The most unpopular vice president in modern history, would be an almost foregone conclusion when proceeding to win back the House and Senate, Republicans would also regain the presidency.

However, there is one problem that cannot be ignored: Standing on the path to Republican victory in 2024 is the Republican of 2022. We haven’t seen them yet, but if recent history is any indicator anyway, the odds are not in their favor that they will get it right.

At the end of October, the Democratic-controlled Congress’ approval ratings plummeted to shameful levels 21 percent. However, for a generation now, such dire numbers are nothing new.


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The last time majority of Americans approved how Congress does its job in 2003. Since then, Republicans have controlled both houses of Congress four times, Democrats three times, and control has been split three times. . Regardless of party, approval ratings over that period mostly fluctuated in the teens and early 20s, sometimes rising more than 30%. The last time more than 40 percent of Americans viewed Congress in favor of it was in 2005.

The last time Republicans regained both houses of Congress was in the 2014 midterm elections. Two years later, they retained both majorities and elected a Republican president, to start motion. People would think they were in the driver’s seat, but they let it all clear.

One early contributing factor to the Republican Party’s failed image was their disastrous attempt to repeal Obamacare. Politically, starting it was an amateurish activity.

Their message to convince Americans to accept an alternative was brutal. It seems like they want to win outright on an anti-Obama agenda, except that Obama, who has just left office, is not a president unpopular by any means. Despite his critics (who doesn’t?) Obama won both terms by near landslides and left office with a 59 percent approval rating.

Do you think the Republican Party will win in both 2022 and 2024?

At the exact moment the Republican Congress was trying to repeal Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act), a majority of Americans wanted it in place.

The problem is that if you get elected to Congress, there’s a good chance you’ll quickly lose support. In many cases, the only reason challengers win elections is because they benefit from being “anyone but incumbents.” The point is, once they take office, they are the ones who become incumbents.

In 1960, in the first major party general election presidential debate (also the first televised debate of its kind) between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon – now famous for the way optics of a pale Nixon and a Kennedy. helped the latter win the election – one of Kennedy’s advisers argued that the camera crew didn’t give the candidates equal time.

When the confused crew told him that Kennedy was getting more airtime, the adviser explained that was the problem: He wanted Nixon, who looked terrible, to be on camera longer.

Similarly, the Democratic Party’s rule so far led by Biden-Pelosi-Schumer looks worse than Nixon’s five-hour shadow. The longer they stay in the spotlight, the better for Republicans. But timing is everything, and if Republicans return to power in 2022, they will likely reclaim the grand prize — the White House — in 2024.


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But there is a way out of this conundrum, if Republicans only listen to the sage words of their former leader, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who in many ways understands very well that Google should use him as a search engine.

In his latest book, “Beyond Biden,” Gingrich recalls that one of the most important things he ever learned from Ronald Reagan was to “stand 80% of the time and smile.”

In other words, Gingrich urged Republicans to stick to the high-value items that the vast majority of Americans want, such as the photo ID needed to vote, mandatory deportation when arrests of impure gang members, tax credits for products made in America, and A color blind society in which people are judged, like Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. said, not by the color of their skin, but by the content of their personality.

If the Republicans take power in 2022 and govern effectively, they will give voters a reason to re-elect them in 2024 and beyond. We’ll get a Republican back into the Oval Office, and Congress might even salvage their tattered reputation.

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Huynh Nguyen

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