Republicans Aren’t Winning Latino Voters — Dems Are Losing Them

Democrats, you have a problem

And it’s not some preset defects with Latino voters. The problem is you.

You didn’t kick us out because you were too “wake up”. You are kicking us out because you fell asleep at the switch when you contacted us. You no longer claim our votes because you assume you have them. You’re too busy chasing suburban white soccer moms by talking hard about immigration and criticizing the same lenient policies that created immigrant housekeepers and nannies. to keep those suburban households afloat. That’s always been the recipe for bleeding votes, and now the bleeding is out of control.

Based on a recent poll by the Wall Street Journal, Latinos are now almost equally divided between the two major political parties.

When asked which party they would support in the congressional race if the election were held today, 37% of Latino voters said they would support the Republican candidate and 37% said they would. for the Democratic Party. A sizable amount – 22% – is still undecided. When asked who would return in the hypothetical 2024 rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 44% said they would support Biden while 43% said they would support Trump.

Despite the poll’s small sample size, it’s hard to find a pro or pro-democracy expert who isn’t the least bit worried that the red wave is expected to sweep through Democrats in the election. The 2022 midterm elections will include a lot of Latino voters. . What is worrisome is the fact that many Latinos live in battleground states – Colorado, Arizona, Texas, Virginia, Nevada, etc. – where elections tend to be close by.

“Latins are increasingly becoming voters who manage… They are a swinging vote that we are going to have to fight for,” Democratic pollster John Anzalone told the Journal. His company ran the poll alongside one led by Tony Fabrizio, the head of the Republican poll.

A word of caution: The more you hear or read about the topic of Latinos being Republicans, the more likely you are to get confused. Every analysis I have encountered in recent weeks from journalists, pollsters, experts or political observers has been false. And, most of the non-Latin (i.e. Caucasian) interpretations are spectacularly wrong.

Too many people are simplifying the complex and complicating the simple.

As some Democrats have suggested, it is not the case that “masculine” Latino men are attracting the GOP because they see the party as more masculine and more friendly to alpha males. It’s also a bit too easy for Republicans to argue that Latinos have fully converted to the GOP on the two issues that resonate most with us – the economy and education.

While many of us like the pro-business Republican stance, we also see a strong role for government in spending on things like education, health care, and Social Security. . And just because we believe in maintaining academic standards doesn’t mean we’ll go all out on private school vouchers.

And there is no such thing as a solid Latino voting block. About 60% of the 62 million Latinos in the United States are Mexican or Mexican-American. Those are the real swing voters. The remaining 40% is comprised of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and Guatemalans, who typically vote Democrat. But you’ll also find Cubans, Salvadorans and Colombians tend to vote Republican.

There are also major geographical differences according to which state Latinos call home. People in blue states like California, New York, New Jersey or New Mexico are more likely to vote Democrat. People who live in Indian states like Utah, Texas or Florida are more likely to vote Republican. And those in “purple” states – or even recent states led by one party but now led by another – like Nevada, Arizona or Virginia are poised to take over..

Another thing that’s not true is this idea that Latinos suddenly become Republican Party. It is more accurate to say that we have always been Republicans at least in part – with conservative views on both economic and social issues. Former President Ronald Reagan once said that Latinos are trying to be Republicans, “they just don’t know it.”

Sure, Latinos are more registered Democrats than Republicans by a 2-1 margin, and we have faithfully voted for Democratic candidates for generations. But it’s worth noting that we almost always support careful Democrats, at the same time, demonstrated a willingness to cross party lines and support pro-immigrant Republicans – especially at the local level.

It is true that, in 15 presidential elections since 1960, the Democratic candidate has won a majority of the Latino vote. It is also true that some Democrats floundered and dropped that large number of votes.

Think Walter Mondale in 1984, who lost 40% of the Latino vote to President Ronald Reagan. Or John Kerry, who, in 2004, ceded 44% to President George W. Bush.

An analysis this year by the Pew Research Center found that Biden beat Trump by 21 points, or 59% to 38%, of Latino voters. But just four years earlier, Hillary Clinton had limited Trump to just 28% of the Latino vote while winning 66%. Trump improved his performance with Latinos by 10 percentage points between 2016 and 2020, supported by the fact that Biden did not contact this Democratic constituency.

So what’s really going on with the Latino vote?

Let’s start with the obvious. Republicans have a secret weapon when it comes to flirting with Latino voters. It’s called the Democratic Party.

This phenomenon – of a political party benefiting from the stupidity and mistakes of the opposition – is not new. In politics, an important part of winning is drawing the right opponent.

For Latino voters, however, this pushback used to work in reverse.

Over the past 30 years, as more and more immigrants from Mexico and Central America have come to the United States — the result of U.S. employers’ insatiable appetite for immigrant workers and trade imbalances, aggravated by the North American Free Trade Agreement – the bald Republicans had become utterists. . Instead of attacking the immigration system as unfair or dysfunctional, they view immigrants as incompetent or dangerous.

The Democrats are the beneficiaries, and they are used to getting Latino votes cheap. Over time, those easy wins create not only complacency but also neglect.

Republicans still haven’t done much right in reaching Latinos, who now represent about one in eight registered voters in the United States. Nudism is a hard habit to break, especially when so many of the White voters who make up the core of the GOP are still addicted to it and demand that the Republican Party open fire on immigration.

But Democrats can always be accused of doing something wrong.

Terry McAuliffe required. The outgoing Virginia governor – who did little on behalf of Latinos while in office – delivered at least one memorable moment during the state’s recent campaigning when he told volunteers Latino go out and multiply. McAuliffe urged young people to “get busy,” suggesting that they increase their demographics and political power in the Old Dominion.

“10.5% of the population is very important,” McAuliffe told the group, referring to the size of Virginia’s Latino population. “Now, let me give you some advice: Stay busy, hit 11% relatively quickly.”

McAuliffe still won the Latino vote in Virginia, but his opponent Glenn Youngkin – who won the race – appears to have more Latino support than many political observers predicted. .

For a Republican, anything north of 30% is a good showing that puts their Democratic opponent on the defensive. According to Edison Research, Youngkin scored 32%.

Whenever they lose trust with voters, political parties always offer explanations that work for them. Republicans say Democrats are driving Latinos away with a “Latinx” awakening that plays only with cultural elites, and that the GOP’s message about education and jobs is paying off. Democrats objected that defection was limited to “masculine” Latino men, who were currently attracted to a party perceived as more masculine.

No political party “gets” Latino voters. And both of them need to listen. Latinos do not devote themselves to any political ideology.

We are a very diverse group of voters, and many of us will remain coffee shop voters who pick and choose depending on what looks good on any given election day. We’re playing because we can’t be put in a box.

And we are paying attention – who is paying attention to us.