In political campaigns, we always fight the last war.
Donald Trump The 2016 election, not insignificantly in part, was a response to the disastrous 2003 invasion of Iraq and the quagmire that followed.
As an emerging GOP primary candidate, Trump said that George W. Bush’s war of choice was “the worst mistake ever made in the history of our country.” Trump took advantage of the frustration of GOP voters, then weaponized his distance from the Republicans to create the conditions for America to retreat from global leadership and see only “America First”. “. It was this message that helped Trump quickly make the initial consensus choice of the “mainstream” GOP: Bush’s brother, Jeb.
That was in 2016. But that’s no longer the world we live in.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Will not return to “America First”” as it was. That doesn’t mean the public is calling for a war with Russia. But the Trumpian worldview that embrace Vladimir Putin and threatens to abandon NATO present, denied. Republicans with their ears closest to the ground already know this.
J.D. Vance, a Republican candidate for the US Senate in Ohio, last month tried to redirect Trump’s populism towards populism, says he doesn’t want US troops to fight and die because of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. “I have to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine,” Vance said, to make the point absolutely clear.
But after a recent Vance campaign event, Attendees told NBC News that “the images of death and devastation on TV” helped them form opinions. on whether the US should support a besieged Ukraine. NBC News reported: “Many also explicitly support sanctions and oil bans, expressing a need for empathy and generosity.
To paraphrase Mike Tyson, every “America First” isolationist has a plan — until they watch a certain kid get hit in the mouth on TV.
Vance is not alone. In North Carolina, Trump-backed candidate Representative Ted Budd is speaking out after praising Putin. “When Ukrainians bleed and die,” Former GOP Governor Pat McCrory said in a video knocking out his main rival, “Congressman Budd defended their killer.”
Budd is now trying to get himself out of this mess by explaining that Putin is “smart “but” evil.“This clarification reflects a changing political reality on the right, as it concerns Putin. Equal National Magazine of Josh Kraushaar colorfully says, “Putin is less famous than syphilis. ”
This response is not just an anecdote. According to a Quinnipiac poll released last week, a majority of Americans – including 74% of Republicans – think Joe Biden is “not tough enough” when it comes to punishing Russia for the invasion. Meanwhile, 64 percent of Americans — including 61 percent of Republicans — have a favorable view of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. .
Of course, public opinion matters most to those who are facing competitive races in the upcoming elections. Most hated Republicans — Deputies. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar (who Speaking at the First White Nationalist American Political Action Conferencewhere the audience cheered for Putin) and Madison Cawthorn (who called Zelensky a “thug””) —Protected in safe counties and so far their national notoriety has not hurt them at the local level.
But make no mistake, the events of the past few weeks have had implications that transcend American politics.
“The invasion has caused enormous damage to populists around the world, who before the attack expressed sympathy for Putin in unison.” Francis Fukuyama wrote. “That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán and of course Donald Trump.”
Trump can never be counted out. But losing re-election, inciting a riot, and then finding yourself on the wrong track in an emerging foreign policy shift hardly feels like a political comeback. brilliant.
ONE Republican anti-Trump field has lined up to run against him by 2024, according to the Associated Press. If most of Trump’s favored candidates in 2022 lose—a possibility even before Russia crossed the border with Ukraine—It will only make the water tank more.
The main opponents might rationalize that while Trump remains a personal favorite in the GOP, the electorate is poised to escape the needless international drama that Trump causes almost daily with as president.
This is not a ridiculous theory. Dynamic world. Trump could still win in 2024, but the isolationist populism he unleashed in 2016 is unlikely to be as explosive as it is today.
Of course, the fickle court of public opinion could return to Trump’s line between now and 2024. Perhaps MAGA will eventually settle on a consistent message (whether Biden is too tough or too weak on Russia). ?), and the horrors of the war in Ukraine will end, with Putin’s troops leaving a country where they had no offensive business in the first place.
Regardless, one thing is for sure: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was one of the biggest international crises and upended the world order in decades. This means that Trump cannot re-emerge in 2024 by playing his best hits. He won’t get many miles if he attacks George W. Bush and the GOP’s “forever wars”. And the praises for Putin – and the suggestion that he could be managed or (even more ridiculously) an ally – simply won’t resonate.
It was the last war.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/putin-killed-trumps-america-first-movement?source=articles&via=rss Putin Killed Trump’s ‘America First’ Movement