Prisco’s NFL Week 1 odds, picks: Mac Jones wins Patriots debut, Bills edge Steelers, Sam Darnold earns revenge

Just a few phrases of warning to all these selecting Week 1 NFL video games: Anticipate the sudden.

Even with three preseason video games this 12 months, in comparison with none final season due to COVID-19, it is all the time powerful to try to get a gauge on how good groups are coming into Week 1.

That is why selecting video games is a problem early within the season. Some groups performed starters within the preseason, whereas others didn’t. Some confirmed stuff, whereas most didn’t. Evaluations are all the time powerful popping out of the preseason.

There aren’t any double-digit spreads this week, with three video games tied for the most important at 7.5 factors. These three video games are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers favored over the Cowboys, the San Francisco 49ers over the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams over the Chicago Bears. I just like the ‘canine in two of these video games. 

Final season was simply OK for me selecting video games. I did do a pleasant job on my Finest Bets as a part of the Choose Six Podcast, which is a present that may return once more this 12 months. That is once I get to dominate host Will Brinson — who all the time finishes final.

Simply watch out this week with the picks. The plain is not all the time the precise means. 

Dallas Cowboys (+8.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Newest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-9

The Bucs return all 22 starters because the defending champions, which makes this a troublesome, powerful highway problem to open for Dallas. The Cowboys do have Dak Prescott again, however the Tampa Bay protection can be higher this 12 months and Dallas can be with out All-Professional guard Zack Martin. One thing tells me the Cowboys will do sufficient on offense to hold round on this sport. It is shut, however the Bucs will win it. 

Choose: Bucs 28, Cowboys 24

Newest Odds:

Philadelphia Eagles
+3

Jalen Hurts is the Eagles starter at quarterback and the way he goes is how nicely the Eagles go. Hurts has the flexibility to create together with his legs, which is usually a drawback for the Falcons. Matt Ryan would not have Julio Jones anymore, however he nonetheless could make huge performs with Calvin Ridley and rookie Kyle Pitts. The Eagles will dangle round, however the Falcons will discover a means. 

Choose: Falcons 23, Eagles 21

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Newest Odds:

Pittsburgh Steelers
+6.5

The Payments are my decide to win the Super Bowl, however that is powerful option to open the season. The Steelers have received 5 of the final six at Buffalo, though the Payments received final 12 months at residence. The Steelers protection towards Josh Allen can be enjoyable to observe, however the sport can be determined by the Buffalo defensive entrance towards the Steelers offensive line. I feel the Payments will get one of the best of that, which is why they win to open the season. However it’s shut. 

Choose: Payments 24, Steelers 20

Newest Odds:

Minnesota Vikings
-3

The Vikings needs to be a lot improved on protection this season, which I feel would be the distinction on this one. Joe Burrow hasn’t regarded nice this summer season, and the Vikings needs to be a lot better up entrance getting after the quarterback with Danielle Hunter again. The Minnesota offense will once more function Dalvin Cook, however I feel it is the passing sport that wins this one. 

Choose: Vikings 30, Bengals 20

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Detroit Lions

Newest Odds:

San Francisco 49ers
-8.5

The 49ers head right here as an enormous favourite, which may be difficult on the highway in Week 1. Do not over-think it. The 49ers are the a lot better staff, and whereas I feel Jared Goff having familiarity with the 49ers will assist the Lions, they are not adequate. The 49ers will do their standard and run the ball and play good protection to win this one. 

Choose: 49ers 28, Lions 16

Newest Odds:

Tennessee Titans
-3

It is a powerful journey to open the season for the Cardinals. They’ve received 5 of the final six towards the Titans. Search for each offenses to play nicely right here, with Tennessee working it and Arizona throwing it. I’m involved in regards to the Tennessee secondary, particularly at nook, which is why Kyler Murray will discover a option to maintain this sport beneath the quantity. 

Choose: Titans 28, Cardinals 27

Newest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts
+3

The quarterback edge is an enormous one on this sport for the Seahawks with Russell Wilson towards Carson Wentz. However the Colts get the defensive edge, which would be the distinction right here. They may management Wilson and Jonathan Taylor will management the clock together with his working. The Colts will win a troublesome, hard-fought sport. 

Choose: Colts 24, Seahawks 23

Newest Odds:

Los Angeles Chargers
+2

It is a powerful, lengthy journey to open the season for the Chargers. The battle to observe right here can be Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert towards the Washington defensive entrance. The Chargers have made enhancements on the offensive line, however this entrance is particular. Ryan Fitzpatrick will play nicely on the opposite facet of the ball. Washington takes the opener. 

Choose: Washington 26, Chargers 20

Newest Odds:

New York Jets
+3.5

That is the Sam Darnold Bowl as he will get to face his former staff. The Jets will unveil rookie quarterback Zack Wilson, Darnold’s alternative. It is powerful to begin on the highway as a rookie, which provides Darnold the sting. Carolina is the higher staff, so that they wreck the Wilson debut. 

Choose: Panthers 24, Jets 17

Newest Odds:

Jacksonville Jaguars
-3

The Texans won’t have top-tier expertise, however they’ve a whole lot of veterans who performed a whole lot of soccer. That may matter towards a rookie quarterback and coach taking part in their first NFL sport for the Jaguars. Jacksonville will battle early, however then discover a option to pull this one out late. The Texans have received 5 straight towards the Jaguars, however they will not make it six. They do get the quilt. 

Choose: Jaguars 27, Texans 26

Newest Odds:

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
-5.5

It is a rematch from the AFC Divisional Playoffs final 12 months, a sport received by the Chiefs. Cleveland hung round in that sport, and it is a higher Cleveland staff. However Kansas Metropolis is improved as nicely, particularly up entrance. I feel the Chiefs will win the sport behind Patrick Mahomes, however the Browns will once more maintain it shut. 

Choose: Chiefs 28, Browns 26

Newest Odds:

New England Patriots
-3

This spotlight of this sport would be the two quarterbacks, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa towards New England’s Mac Jones, who can be making his first begin as a rookie. The Dolphins and Brian Flores will throw a ton of seems to be at Jones, who noticed a whole lot of vanilla stuff within the preseason. However it is going to be a problem for Tagovailoa as nicely. It is a powerful opener for Miami towards an improved New England staff. Jones will win his first begin. 

Choose: Patriots 23, Dolphins 17

Newest Odds:

Inexperienced Bay Packers
-3.5

This sport was moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida, which has displaced the Saints. That is all the time a problem for any staff. However the warmth can be a problem for the Packers. Jameis Winston will begin for the Saints, however he will not be capable of sustain with Aaron Rodgers, who will benefit from so-so corners for the Saints. These two have performed a whole lot of high-scoring video games. This can be no totally different. Packers win it and canopy.

Choose: Packers 35, Saints 24

Newest Odds:

New York Giants
+3

It is a lengthy journey for the Broncos to open the season, however protection travels nicely and the Broncos may have a high protection. The distinction on this sport would be the Denver entrance towards the Giants offensive line. They may make it a troublesome day for Daniel Jones. Teddy Bridgewater will do sufficient to win it. 

Choose: Broncos 21, Giants 14

Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Newest Odds:

Los Angeles Rams
-8

Andy Dalton and the Bears head to Los Angeles to play a Rams staff that now options Matt Stafford, who’s conversant in the Bears from his days with the Lions. Search for the Rams to indicate off Stafford towards a Bears secondary that has points at nook. However Dalton will make sufficient performs to maintain it shut. The road is bloated. 

Choose: Rams 23, Bears 20

Newest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens
-4

The Raiders will play their first regular-season sport of their new stadium, which can be buzzing. However they nonetheless have points on protection, even with a brand new coordinator in Gus Bradley and a brand new system. That may present up on this one with Lamar Jackson getting off to a quick begin. The Raiders will rating as nicely with Derek Carr, so search for a high-scoring sport with a whole lot of huge performs. 

Choose: Ravens 34, Raiders 27