NFL Week 7 picks, bets and odds: Tons of big underdogs beg the question, where is Chaos Week?

It took writing a protracted picks column to comprehend why my document was terrible final week. And it was BAD. I have been typing issues on this web site for some time and it is most likely the worst week I’ve had. This is not an apology it is simply me expressing my annoyance at ready for Pete Prisco’s podcast entice he is been laying since Sunday. 

This week is a good litmus take a look at for the few weeks shifting ahead. Is soccer drifting towards the baseball mannequin? As a result of the previous 5 years or so, elite MLB teams hit this stretch of the season the place they win tons of video games. The concept being MLB groups quit and get overpowered by elite spenders just like the Dodgers, Yankees, and many others. The Dodgers traded for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner this 12 months. The Yankees went price range and added Anthony Rizzo. Even the Giants snagged Kris Bryant. 

Numerous dangerous try-hard groups have large spreads towards elite groups. I am curious to see if a gulf is gonna construct or if we get the standard swing again from the NFL the place standings tighten up. There hasn’t been a chaos week but this season. 

All NFL odds are by way of Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 7 Picks

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Fox, NFL Community | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Observe: CBS Sports App

Newest Odds:

Cleveland Browns
-1.5

It is a fairly tough sport to handicap earlier than ooooooohhhh about 6:30 p.m. on Thursday. That is as a result of will probably be proper round gametime once we know the total extent of who might be accessible for the Browns and Broncos. Cleveland’s injury report is crazy long and there are some vital names on there: Jack Conklin, Jedrick Wills, Odell Beckham and plenty of extra. I am of the idea you most likely wish to wait and see who’s lively and who is not earlier than betting this sport however proper now with the quantity nearer to a choose I’ll go together with the Browns. Full disclosure: I took some Broncos +3.5 and can both come again on the Browns at -1 or ML them to attempt to get a window. It is a bizarre sport. We’ll wager it however will not adore it. Do not sleep on the potential of Case Keenum sparking some “ought to Baker be the starter” conversations over the weekend.

The choose: Browns 17, Broncos 12

Props, Finest Bets: Noah Fant over receiving yards

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)

Newest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens
-6.5

The Bengals are legit, I believe. Their protection is sweet, notably towards the run. Joe Burrow is beginning to actually come out of the submit ACL damage factor. Jonah Williams is not getting sufficient credit score for taking part in nicely at LT. And Ja’Marr Chase is an absolute monster on the market. The Bengals performed issues proper when it comes to the draft and it is paying dividends. I am undecided if I am 100% bought on Zac Taylor as “the man” but however Bengals followers should not be both. John Harbaugh is the man, although, and Baltimore is cooking. Lamar Jackson is working lower than ever this 12 months, Marquise Brown is having a third-year breakout, Rashod Bateman has returned from damage and Mark Andrews seems like a monster on the market. I believe the Ravens may be flexing on individuals over the subsequent few weeks.

The choose: Baltimore 31, Bengals 17

Props, Finest Bets: Ravens -6

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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Tennessee Titans
+4.5

Large, emotional win for the Titans on Monday evening. They transfer to 4-2, host one other AFC contender they’ve battled with up to now and get to expire Derrick Henry for one more 30 carries hoping he can jailbreak just a few. The Titans can hold this shut if the sport goes the best way they need it — low-scoring/matching early, feed Henry, take some photographs to A.J. Brown/Julio Jones (assuming each are wholesome) and beat up on a foul Chiefs protection. However Kansas Metropolis was form of flying round final week. It was Washington, so caveat away. However we have handed the buy-low level for the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. They’re plus cash to win the division, a wager you need to completely make. And I form of suppose they hearth up a comeback tour beginning right here. Give me some heavy highway chalk, what may go unsuitable. Really I simply suppose if the weapons are wholesome they will discover methods to attain late towards dangerous defenses like they’ve the previous few weeks.

The Decide: Chiefs 31, Titans 21

Bets: Chiefs -6.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

New England Patriots
-7

Invoice Belichick and the Pats are down within the dumps. Will that stop them from thrashing a foul Jets staff twice this season? Nope. The Jets are rested and Robert Salah/Zach Wilson have their second have a look at the Patriots protection. New England’s D hasn’t been nice this 12 months however the offenses its confronted have been powerful. And Belichick’s document towards rookie/younger quarterbacks speaks for itself. Plenty of Pats subject targets and the same sport to the primary one.

The Decide: Patriots 24, Jets 10

Bets: Pats -7

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Miami Dolphins
+2.5

This sport stinks out loud on numerous ranges. The Dolphins are getting back from London with no bye week. The Falcons are getting back from London … off their bye week. The Dolphins are being closely talked about as a commerce candidate for Deshaun Watson. The chatter seems to be coming from Houston, which implies the Texans try to power the problem earlier than the commerce deadline. And that can apply vital strain to Tua Tagovailoa towards a foul protection. I form of suppose he throws up an enormous sport right here to push it again towards the Dolphins. Tua wasn’t dangerous in London, he simply had a fully depressing “perhaps I am out on Tua” interception to the sideline, a toss that confirmed his lack of arm power. If the Dolphins can generate strain up entrance, they’ll win this sport towards a largely unprotected Matt Ryan. I’m frightened Miami is drained and Ryan/Calvin Ridley/Kyle Pitts lob up bombs however the Falcons should not be favored on the highway. 

The Decide: Dolphins 24, Falcons 21

Bets: Calvin Ridley over yards

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

New York Giants
+3

No concept the right way to play the Dave Gettleman Bowl. The Giants clearly cannot be favored in any sport the remainder of the 12 months and are coping with a ton of accidents. Carolina seemed terrible final week towards a greater than common protection. This sport may characteristic 10-15 turnovers from the quarterbacks alone. Each offensive traces are issues. Finally it comes down as to if Sam Darnold or Daniel Jones turns the ball over extra. Or much less? One in every of them will win the turnover battle and that is how this sport will get determined. The Panthers protection is certainly higher — in the event that they get a lead, I would be frightened they’ll form of soften clock. However I am going to go factors at dwelling right here.

The Decide: Giants 21, Panthers 20

Bets: Nope

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Inexperienced Bay Packers
-7.5

Hate this sport too. Aaron Rodgers simply casually blasted the Bears and now he is at dwelling towards a horrific protection, but in addition has the undefeated Cardinals developing on Thursday in Week 8. I do know NFL teams haven’t got “lookahead” spots in concept, however they know the schedule when there is a sport at dwelling and a brief turnaround. That is a part of the plan. Everyone seems to be conscious. The WFT offense has been actually dangerous the previous few weeks — Taylor Heinicke isn’t the magic resolution anybody was anticipating on a full-time foundation, it does not seem. However the distinction between the Chiefs and Packers is Inexperienced Bay will get a shorter lead and depart somebody in a sport (see the Bears final week). Washington can backdoor this massive line.

The Decide: Packers 24, WFT 20

Bets: Move

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-12.5

The Bears needed to come back via the backdoor final week however Aaron Rodgers sadly “still owns them.” Chicago was contained in the quantity late and Rodgers bounced into the top zone for his viral second. Justin Fields hasn’t been inspiring in his begins. The Bears franchise tagged Allen Robinson and are not utilizing him. The offense is stale and the offensive line is dangerous. The Bucs entrance seven may EAT towards this offense. They most likely will. If this line was lower than 10 I am most likely rolling Bears, however 12+ factors is simply an excessive amount of for an NFL staff with a top-10 protection. It is simply going to be shut like final week and the query is can Fields really produce towards a foul go protection. We noticed the Eagles sneak within the backdoor on Thursday final week, Chicago can do the identical even when Tampa wins comfortably.

The Decide: Buccaneers 28, Bears 17

Bets: Have a look at Godwin overs if AB is harm, RoJo over rush makes an attempt 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Los Angeles Rams
-15

Sport of the week of the 12 months — a quadruple revenge sport. We have now Matthew Stafford going towards his previous staff, Jared Goff going towards his previous staff, Goff and Sean McVay on the lookout for revenge towards one another for a way issues went down/making an attempt to show the coach is happier with the brand new quarterback and Michael Brockers of the Rams talking smack about Goff versus Goff’s new teammate Michael Brockers. I do know the second I get off the Dan Campbell bandwagon they will discover a technique to cowl on my face however I believe there is a larger impetus on McVay and Stafford to mild up the Lions right here than vice versa. This is not the Bucs sport for McVay but it surely may be shut. He desires to beat the residing snot out of Goff and remind everybody why he made this large offseason commerce. Stafford is gonna have an enormous sport right here. The Lions will struggle their asses off right here, however I do not suppose the Rams will let up. 

The Decide: Rams 35, Lions 21

Bets: Stafford over go yards, Kupp over receptions, DJax anytime TD, D’Andre Swift over receptions

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Las Vegas Raiders
-3

It is borderline inconceivable to think about the psychological state of the Raiders proper now. Of all my dangerous picks final week nothing stings worse than fading the Raiders due to the Jon Gruden firing, studying Vic Fangio saying the Broncos had been scared they’d be fired up after which not altering my choose. Horrible. However this works each methods — there is a pure emotional letdown after that form of efficiency. Derek Carr is taking part in GREAT proper now and can most likely make me look silly. These groups are actually shut and the unfold displays it — if Carr retains hitting ceiling video games they will keep within the playoff race. However Hurts is not scared to backdoor one thing and the Eagles are an issue up entrance in case you do not shield nicely. I see a let down right here. 

The Decide: Eagles 24, Raiders 21

Bets: Eagles +3.5

Texans at Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Arizona Cardinals
-17.5

Yearly these huge spreads are the worst. We’re speaking a staff that’s an underdog by three scores to Kliff Kingsbury. And I’ve to take them out of precept. It’s totally annoying. The Texans are god terrible, are lacking Laremy Tunsil for a sizzling minute (an enormous drawback) and Arizona is nice. J.J. Watt has juiced this staff with an power they did not have earlier than and can also be taking part in implausible soccer. However this quantity is an overreaction to the Texans getting smoked by the Colts and the Playing cards placing the Browns in a blender. Arizona is sweet however three-score spreads are reserved for epic offenses versus horrific groups. The Texans match. And this Playing cards staff is likely one of the few top-10 offensive and defensive groups within the league. However 17-plus factors is outrageous. The Texans may legit rating 10 factors on this sport and nonetheless cowl. Arizona is not taking part in an announcement sport right here. They will shift to run heavy and soften in the event that they rise up massive early.

The Decide: Cardinals 24, Texans 7

Bets: Brandin Cooks overs, James Conner carry overs

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

San Francisco 49ers
-4

Beware the DeForest Buckner revenge sport. The 49ers have been a disappointment this season, though I’d argue the losses aren’t as dangerous as you keep in mind. Each single one of many 49ers video games has been one rating this season, which is wild. A few of them had been big shootouts (Week 1, *the Lions sport* aka the insane backdoor) and a few of them have been bizarre clunkers (they held the Playing cards to 17 earlier than the bye). Carson Wentz has performed very nicely the previous few weeks. Quenton Nelson and Darius Leonard are each coming again for this sport if you believe the flirty Colts tweets. “Should win” is a dumb phrase all the time but it surely’s getting late early for the 49ers given how the division is shifting. 

The Decide: 49ers 31, Colts 24

Bets: Deebo Samuel over receptions

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Seattle Seahawks
+4.5

Geno Smith and Jameis Winston are squaring off within the battle of quarterbacks we by no means knew we needed and, but, we wanted. The Seahawks have to win this one. Actually badly. To resolve if they are going to promote or not on the commerce deadline and perhaps launch a run of kinds after Russell Wilson will get again. Anybody else and I would financial institution on an extended restoration, however Mr. Limitless does not adhere to schedules. Geno wasn’t nice towards the Steelers however they’re discovering spots to get him snug. The Saints protection is sneaky elite however they’re most likely a good comp for Pittsburgh. And this can be a season-flipping win for Seattle in the event that they discover a approach.   

The Decide: Seahawks 17, Saints 14

Bets: Move