NFL Week 7 odds, picks: Patriots sweep Jets, Matthew Stafford pummels Lions and Jared Goff

We got here again to earth in Week 6. Whereas #DajaniDimes went 3-2 on his prime 5 picks, there weren’t many different wins to be discovered on our ATS sheet. The unhealthy week was merely the results of a strategic choice that didn’t pan out.

In Week 5, sportsbooks took an absolute beating. Only a handful of underdogs pulled off ML upsets. Golden Nugget sportsbook director Tony Miller even tweeted: “That is simply a type of days once I simply wanna go residence, lock myself in my room with a full bottle of Knob Creek.” There was no manner favorites have been going to roll like they did two weeks in a row, proper? They did not roll, however they did win the day. Favorites went 8-6 ATS in keeping with the strains I went off of, and I simply occurred to lean in direction of the unsuitable underdogs.

On to the following one. We’re nonetheless No. 3 at CBS Sports activities. Let’s go forward and leap in. Peep the season stats under. 

Prime 5 picks document: 18-12
Total ATS document: 49-44-1
Straight up document: 60-34
2020 ATS document: 125-120-9 (2 official picks missed as a consequence of COVID rescheduling)

All NFL odds are through Caesars Sportsbook

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

New England Patriots
-7

The Jets have arguably the worst offense within the NFL. They rank close to the underside of the league in a number of offensive classes and now should face an excellent protection on the street. These two groups confronted off in Week 2, because the Patriots blew out the Jets by 19 factors whereas Zach Wilson threw 4 interceptions. I’d say this recreation being in Foxboro ought to assist the Patriots, however they’re extremely 0-4 at residence this season. They most lately fell to the Dallas Cowboys in extra time, however Mac Jones did throw two touchdowns and recorded a 118.9 QBR — the best of his younger profession. 

With a win over the Patriots on Sunday, the Jets can be forward of the Pats within the AFC East for the primary time since Week 1 of 2014, when the Jets have been 1-0 and the Patriots have been 0-1. I do not see that coming to fruition. I’m nonetheless attempting to determine who this Patriots staff is, however I do know that the Jets are unhealthy and that Invoice Belichick is aware of game-plan for rookie quarterbacks. Rookie beginning quarterback are 6-27 in opposition to the Patriots since Belichick took over in 2000, and 0-16 in opposition to them in Foxboro throughout that span. 

The choose: Patriots -7 
Projected rating: Patriots 26-17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens
-6.5

The Ravens are 15-4 at residence because the begin of the 2019 season. Solely the Green Bay Packers have a greater residence document throughout that span (16-2). I believe the Bengals are an improved staff that is price watching, however I additionally suppose this Ravens staff is likely one of the greatest within the NFL. Not solely is Lamar Jackson a reputable MVP candidate, however the protection has been higher than anticipated. They’re coming off of their greatest efficiency of the season, as they allowed simply 208 yards and 6 factors in opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers. On offense, it virtually would not even matter who’s working the ball for the Ravens. Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray and Le’Veon Bell are scoring touchdowns for this staff. 

I simply suppose the Ravens are the higher staff. They defeated the Bengals, 27-3, in Joe Burrow’s lone begin in opposition to this division rival. This ought to be a more in-depth recreation, however I will take Baltimore to cowl. 

The choose: Ravens -6.5 
Projected rating: Ravens 30-23

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)

Newest Odds:

Los Angeles Rams
-16

This week, Matthew Stafford hosts his former membership — the one winless staff within the NFL. The Lions are 0-6 for the primary time since going 0-16 in 2008, and issues are getting worse. Former Rams-now-Lions quarterback Jared Goff led an offense which scored simply 11 factors final week even though he tried 42 passes. Head coach Dan Campbell even mentioned that he’s going to should “step up more than he has.”

Laying 15 factors sounds unwise, however the Rams have gained two of their 5 victories by at the least 20 factors — together with final week’s 38-11 win over the New York Giants. I believe the Lions would be the worst staff the Rams will face so far. Throw in the truth that Stafford will likely be motivated to crush his former staff and I believe the Rams can cowl. 

The choose: Rams -15 
Projected rating: Rams 34-16

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)

Newest Odds:

Las Vegas Raiders
-3

The Raiders derailed one in every of my greatest bets final week, as I overestimated the Denver Broncos in a giant manner. It is attainable that the Raiders come down after their emotional street victory final week with out Jon Gruden, however this matchup being at residence brings me some consolation. This fan base goes to rally round this staff with the off-field storm they’ve needed to climate over the previous week, and possibly they will carry some momentum into this matchup in opposition to what I consider to be an inferior opponent.  

The Eagles are coming off a 28-22 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers through which they gained a season-low 213 yards of whole offense. Jalen Hurts hasn’t appeared good throwing the soccer however not sufficient blame will get placed on first-year head coach Nick Sirianni. Per TruMedia, Hurts has discovered success throwing in opposition to man protection this season. Sadly, the Raiders line up in zone protection on 80.9 p.c of their defensive snaps, which is the second-highest share within the NFL. Give me the Raiders.

The choose: Raiders -3 
Projected rating: Raiders 27-20

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Newest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts
+4

Is Carson Wentz turning the nook? He has three straight video games with two passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He can match Peyton Manning for the longest streak of such video games in Colts historical past this week. Wentz threw 9 interceptions via the primary six video games final season. This season, he has thrown only one. One more reason to be enthusiastic about Wentz shifting ahead? The return of T.Y. Hilton. He caught 4 passes for 80 yards in his first recreation again final week and had a 52-yard catch — which was his longest since 2018. 

As for the 49ers, they’re coming off of a bye, however have additionally misplaced three straight. Jimmy Garoppolo will doubtless return to the beginning lineup after lacking one recreation, although he thought he would miss a couple of weeks when he suffered his calf harm. Even along with his return, it isn’t like this offense has been explosive. In response to TruMedia, San Francisco averages three performs of 20-plus yards per recreation, which ranks fifth-fewest within the league this season. That is down from 4.9 per recreation in 2019 (fourth-most). Roughly 22 p.c of Garoppolo’s passes have had unfavorable air yards this season, which is the second-highest fee within the NFL. The Colts are getting higher whereas the 49ers have not gained a recreation in over a month. I will take the factors on “Sunday Evening Soccer,” and sprinkle on the moneyline. 

The choose: Colts +4 
Projected rating: Colts 28-24

Different Week 7 picks

Broncos (+2) 24-21 over Browns
Giants (+3) 27-23 over Panthers
Chiefs 33-30 over Titans (+5.5)
Falcons (-2.5) 28-23 over Dolphins
Packers (-8.5) 30-21 over Washington
Cardinals 35-20 over Texans (+17.5)
Buccaneers 30-20 over Bears (+12.5)
Saints (-5) 33-20 over Seahawks