NFL Week 5 Picks, Odds: Bengals stun Packers, Rams take out Seahawks, Steelers beat Broncos

Final week was a tough week in opposition to the unfold for yours actually. I used to be fairly down within the dumps, questioning if issues might get any worse. Nicely, all I can say is, thank you Urban Meyer. It may worsen! 

That is probably the most pub the Jaguars have gotten in fairly a while, however the present storyline in all probability defies the “no press is dangerous press” motto so typically utilized by public relations specialists. It is the one factor being talked about. And never simply on sports activities radio or scorching take reveals. The City stuff has consumed textual content and electronic mail threads throughout the nation for the final 5 days. 

And the loopy half is, we’re not even 5 weeks into City’s common season tenure with the Jags. He is issued extra public apologies — whether or not to followers, household, his boss, whoever — than NFL games coached. It is an unimaginable feat. 

The place does it go from right here? One would THINK issues calm down if the Jags can discover a win within the subsequent week or two. If not, the stress cooker might get turned up much more. I am fascinated to see how/the place it goes from right here. 

To the picks, could they be higher than final week (mine, not City’s, let’s set the bar slightly larger this time).

All NFL odds are by way of Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 5 Picks

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Community, Fox | Stream: Amazon Prime
Comply with: CBS Sports App

Newest Odds:

Seattle Seahawks
+2.5

Fading Russell Wilson in prime time appears like a horrible thought. However the Seahawks ought to be 1-3 at finest after they bought beat up within the field rating by San Francisco however escaped with a win. The Rams have been do for a letdown final week after beating up on Tom Brady and the Bucs the prior week. Now they’re indignant and will come out slinging throughout a questionable Seattle protection. I believe we get a ton of factors on this one and Matthew Stafford and Co. come out forward. 

The decide: Rams 28, Seahawks 24

Props, Greatest Bets: Rams ML

Sunday, 9:20 a.m. ET (London)
TV: NFL Community | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Atlanta Falcons
-3

Have a look at this stunning tire hearth we’re sending abroad. Thankfully for the Brits, Robert Saleh’s crew managed to seek out their first victory in opposition to the Titans on Sunday. New York would not seem like a crew able to profitable quite a lot of video games this 12 months however they will not be a crew that quits on their coach. And Zach Wilson can sling it man. Simply let him throw a pair extra rockets to Corey Davis like he did in opposition to Tennessee and all of the sudden England could have a number of extra Jets followers lurking about.

If there was a crew to offer them up, it is Atlanta. The Jets doubtless will not present a lot resistance to Matt Ryan, who confirmed up along with his finest sport of the season by far in opposition to Washington on Sunday. (Now if he might simply handle to focus some passes towards both Kyle Pitts or Calvin Ridley …) One benefit for the Jets on this sport ought to be dealing with the Tennessee offense final week, slowing down Derrick Henry after which drawing Arthur Smith’s Atlanta offense this week. I do know Henry ultimately ended up with an enormous stat line, however his early-game manufacturing was not spectacular and the Jets did a superb job of minimizing his manufacturing. I believe they discover a second win right here or on the very least keep throughout the quantity due to the Falcons incapacity to play protection in opposition to nearly anybody. 

The decide: Jets 28, Falcons 24

Props, Greatest Bets: Jets +3

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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-10

Watching these two groups play in Week 4 you would be onerous pressed to choose something apart from the Buccaneers. However there’s a number of components making me “like” the Dolphins on this spot. One, the road is double digits. Two, Tom Brady and his teammates are coming off a loopy emotional week. And three, Brian Flores has first rate historical past (let’s ignore that 43-0 shellacking the primary time) slowing down Brady. It is a pure letdown play and I believe the Bucs will probably be content material to take a pair pictures, pound Leonard Fournette and get out with a reasonably shut win.

The Decide: Bucs 27, Dolphins 21

Bets: Cross

Saints at Washington Soccer Group

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Washington Soccer Group
+2

The newest proof 2021 is wild: Sean Payton’s offense is bottom half of the league by DVOA and Ron Rivera’s protection is backside 5 within the league by the same metric. Payton we are able to at the least chalk as much as the departure of Drew Brees and absence of Michael Thomas, though this explicit unit is shifting at a sloth’s tempo, which speaks fairly strongly to Payton’s religion in Jameis Winston at this level. Rivera’s protection is totally astonishing. The WFTs have given up almost 1,200 passing yards, 7.4 yards per play and has allowed opposing quarterbacks to hit on over 67 p.c of their passes. Is that this a get-right spot for both crew? Sean Payton has a wonderful file profitable video games off a loss. Neither Rivera nor Payton has an enormous leg up on their head-to-head file with their time within the NFC South collectively. Washington can put up sufficient factors to steal this one at residence.

The Decide: WFT 35, Saints 28

Bets: Cross

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Pittsburgh Steelers
PK

The Broncos are a highly regarded AFC West upstart after their scorching begin with Teddy Bridgewater underneath heart. The Steelers, in the meantime, are the butt of many NFL jokes and other people declaring how WASHED Ben Roethlisberger is. He nearly definitely is washed at this level, however there’s sufficient left within the tank for him to summon up a powerful residence efficiency as a small favourite. Particularly in every week when Ben’s camp is letting it leak he’s being “hamstrung” by Mike Tomlin and OC Matt Canada. I might assume everybody and their brother is on the Broncos right here due to the Steelers struggles and the notion they’re cratering into oblivion, so I am simply going to pivot the opposite manner with a small quantity. Long run I am promoting Pittsburgh however this can be a first rate purchase spot with a harmful protection presumably drawing the turnover susceptible Drew Lock.

The Decide: Steelers 21, Broncos 13

Bets: Steelers -1.5

Titans at Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Jacksonville Jaguars
+4.5

Would not or not it’s unimaginable if Meyer bought his first win in an enormous divisional sport after the final week or so? The Jaguars are DFL in DVOA in opposition to the go, however really round common in opposition to the run. We noticed them in Cincinnati put up a superb struggle in opposition to Joe Mixon. Will the Titans be prepared to aggressively push issues downfield within the passing sport to make the most of Jacksonville’s weak point? They may not even have the personnel for it, relying on the standing of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Greater than doubtless the Titans will attempt to lean on Derrick Henry like final week in opposition to the Jets and it might get them in hassle in opposition to a good run protection. Then again, Henry averages 101.3 (!) yards per sport in opposition to the Jags in his profession together with 11 touchdowns in 10 video games. Plus, City mainly set the Jags mini-bye on hearth — he was answering questions on Ohio, not Tennessee, as late as Wednesday — and it is quite a bit tougher to prep for a sport once you’ve bought ……. different ……. issues in your life to take care of. If the Jags have been catching a landing or extra a la the Jets I would roll with however give me the Titans to cowl the quick quantity.

The Decide: Titans 31, Jaguars 23

Bets: Cross

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Minnesota Vikings
-9.5

The Vikings regarded about as uninspired as an NFL membership can in opposition to the Browns final week. After a fast rating from Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson, issues went sideways and the Vikings did not rating a single level the remainder of the best way. It was powerful to look at, particularly with Baker Mayfield struggling simply as badly for Cleveland. Dalvin Cook remains to be banged up, so the guess right here is the Vikes lean on Kirk Cousins and air it out slightly bit to get a lead after which lean on Alexander Mattison to shut issues out. Detroit will in all probability mount certainly one of their patented second half surges, making the backdoor a harmful chance. However the Vikings badly want a convincing win on this spot and I believe they handle to get it.

The Decide: Vikings 35, Lions 21

Bets: Vikings -7.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Houston Texans
+9

The over/underneath for this sport is a sturdy 39.5, which is about as little as you may see an NFL sport within the 12 months 2021. That is to not say it may’t simply hit: Pats unders are fairly sturdy because the departure of Tom Brady led to a extra conservative offense. Mac Jones is definitely passing greater than you’d suppose, however this can be a smash spot for Damien Harris and the Patriots working sport to take over. It reminds precisely of the Pats solely win this season, a 25-6 thumping of rookie Zach Wilson and the Jets on the highway in Week 2. David Culley and the Texans can put together all they need, however Invoice Belichick destroys younger quarterbacks in dangerous spots and Davis Mills qualifies. New England in all probability should not be nine-point highway favorites, nevertheless it’s troublesome to think about them being locked up in a decent one with Houston given the Pats relative strengths.

The Decide: Patriots 21, Texans 7

Bets: Beneath 39.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Cincinnati Bengals
+3

Aaron Rodgers not too long ago admitted he doesn’t like playing in Cincinnati, for no matter motive. (Such is life being on a podcast with John Breech. You are continuously being fed pro-Bengals propaganda.) The Bengals presently profile because the fifth-best protection in soccer by DVOA and are significantly stout in opposition to the run. I believe they’ll restrict Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Moreover, when Joe Mixon is out — and he ought to be right here — Cincy morphs from an early-down run offense to a extra pass-friendly unit. Get Joe Burrow cooking in opposition to a secondary with out Jaire Alexander and with Tee Higgins again within the fold and we might see some fireworks. I am backing AMERICA’S NEW TEAM THE CINCINNATI BENGALS to win this sport OUTRIGHT. No this is not Stockholm Syndrome. I am simply stealing the Bengals from Breech, proper out from underneath his nostril.

The Decide: Bengals 31, Packers 28

Bets: Bengals +3, Over 51

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Carolina Panthers
-3

The Panthers have been busy bees in terms of bolstering their secondary. First they commerce for C.J. Henderson and now they’ve added former DPOY Stephon Gilmore by way of a trade on Wednesday with New England. Gilmore will not be accessible for this sport however buying him ought to bolster Carolina’s roster with the assumption this crew is making an attempt to win now. I began out in search of methods to speak myself into the Eagles protecting it inside this small quantity, however I am unsure I can get there. The Eagles stored it nearer with Kansas Metropolis than the rating would point out, however the Panthers protection is miles higher than the Chiefs. And whereas Carolina’s offensive line is way worse than KC’s and Sam Darnold just isn’t equal to Patrick Mahomes, Joe Brady and Co. have carried out sufficient shifting Darnold round and giving him designed runs to mitigate the stress from Philly’s entrance. If Christian McCaffrey comes again, it is only a bonus.  

The Decide: Panthers 28, Eagles 21

Bets: Panthers -4

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Las Vegas Raiders
-5.5

All eyes will probably be on this sport with Justin Fields making his “franchise quarterback” debut (final week he was simply spot beginning for Andy Dalton, that is the actual factor, welcome to the Bears!). Chicago, relatively annoyingly, did this very same factor with Mitchell Trubisky again in 2017. However this can be a significantly better matchup for Fields than Trubisky who drew the 2017 Vikings and the league’s No. 1 ranked protection. Fields will get a better-than-advertised Raiders protection however that is nonetheless a median unit. If — AND I REPEAT IF — Matt Nagy can scheme up some stuff to help his rookie quarterback by reducing the sector in half, rolling him out in play-action spots and using designed runs to intensify Fields’ strengths, this could possibly be a very nice debut. It is an improve for Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson and Cole Kmet for certain, even when David Montgomery will probably be absent. If Nagy would not assist his quarterback, the Raiders will roll and the requires his head will justifiably enhance. Derek Carr and the Raiders will search for a bounceback after a tough efficiency in opposition to the Chargers, however I am unsure this is a perfect touchdown spot with the quick week. 

The Decide: Bears 21, Raiders 20

Bets: Bears +5.5

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys
-7

Daniel Jones is quietly taking part in the very best soccer of his profession. Sadly for the Giants … so is Dak Prescott. Dak may not really win Comeback Participant of the 12 months this season if he is too busy taking residence MVP. And he ought to be capable to bolster his numbers in opposition to a leaky Giants protection, (though credit score to them for limiting Atlanta and New Orleans the final two weeks). The quantity here’s a bit giant, although, with Dimes able to torching groups along with his legs in the identical manner that league-leading speeding TD scorer Sam Darnold was in a position to mild them up. Kenny Golladay is beginning to get going and Jones ought to be compelled to throw a ton with the Cowboys able to scoring after which leaning on Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys protection is way improved however the Giants will be capable to pile up rubbish time stats and worst case storm in by the backdoor.

The Decide: Cowboys 35, Giants 31

Bets: Over

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Arizona Cardinals
-5

The Cardinals are for actual, little question about it. Kliff Kingsbury ought to be the COY chief and Kyler Murray ought to be the MVP frontrunner. Veteran additions like A.J. Green and J.J. Watt are paying off for GM Steve Keim. However in a divisional matchup of two groups inside an inexpensive skillset stage, that is simply too many factors. The Playing cards in all probability aren’t bothering to arrange for Jimmy Garoppolo, figuring out the chatter about him taking part in was doubtless a smokescreen. Making ready for Trey Lance is not simple, although. We’d see the 49ers uncork a 2012-WFT fashion playbook on this one, simply unleashing learn choice and RPOs out the wazoo. Personally I’m WAY extra involved about Trent Williams and Alex Mack taking part in than Jimmy G. Or simply about anybody on the roster. If each these guys are down, I’d again off this decide, however I believe the 49ers pull off the upset on the highway right here and we see some magic out of Lance on the offensive facet of issues.

The Decide: 49ers 31, Cardinals 28

Bets: SF +5.5

Browns at Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Los Angeles Chargers
-2

Didn’t anticipate this to be a matchup of 3-1 AFC heavyweights however right here we’re. It is a enjoyable chess battle too as a result of the Chargers are a run funnel and easily lock down opposing passing video games. The Browns love that! Baker Mayfield was scorching trash final week in opposition to the Vikings however his crew nonetheless bought the win. If the Chargers can someway decelerate the run by loading up the field and pressure Mayfield to throw, that is a much bigger benefit than what their protection has been doing the primary few weeks of the season. The Browns, in the meantime, have the third total protection by DVOA proper now. They’re fairly good too! I might anticipate we see the Chargers preserve making an attempt to work Austin Ekeler and doubtless have some success. It should be an superior sport. Give me the Bolts in an exciting afternoon matchup.

The Decide: Chargers 21, Browns 17

Bets: Chargers -1.5

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
-2.5

After which that is the evening sport? What a weekend of motion. I am certain some folks will probably be in on the underneath right here and I do not blame them based mostly on the insanely excessive whole. No likelihood I get in entrance of this shifting prepare, although. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen might put up some big-time numbers on this sport, even with the Payments taking part in some actually good protection (No. 1 in DVOA) currently. It is onerous to think about their finest effort nullifying the Chiefs, though Buffalo profitable would not shock me. Given the stakes and the stage and the home-field benefit, I will nonetheless take the Chiefs right here. However this sport is simply going to be superior. Sit again and revel in it.

The Decide: Chiefs 41, Payments 35

Bets: Chiefs -2.5

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens
-7

Assuming TNF and SNF ship, might this be our first prime-time snoozer of the 12 months? Each single massive sport has been excellent theater on a prime-time stage. I do not suppose the Ravens will simply fully steamroll the Colts and it was good to see indicators of life from Carson Wentz and Indy final week in South Florida. However this can be a completely different animal. John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson at residence are an issue. Indy’s really sporting a superb rush protection however I believe we are able to anticipate some pictures down the sector to Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. If the Ravens can get vertical they’ll put the Colts in a tough place needing to return again. 

The Decide: Ravens 24, Colts 14

Bets: Cross