NFL Week 5 picks: Bills shock Chiefs in Kansas City, Chargers win thriller over Browns in Los Angeles

I might like to begin issues off right here this week by congratulating the New York Jets, who beat the Tennessee Titans for what was simply probably the most surprising win of Week 4. I might say the Titans had the worst weekend of anybody within the NFL, besides Urban Meyer exists, in order that’s not true. 

I am not saying Meyer is making an attempt to get fired so he could make himself obtainable for the USC job, however I am not not saying that. Meyer will really be teaching towards the Titans this week, so a type of two will certainly be embarrassing themselves for a second straight week. 

So which one will it’s? 

Let’s get to the picks and discover out. 

Truly, earlier than we get to the picks, this is a fast reminder which you can take a look at the weekly picks from each NFL expert by clicking here, however you needn’t click on over this week, as a result of we’ve got extra essential issues to go over proper now, like why you must join the Decide Six e-newsletter that we’ve got right here at 

Based mostly on my unscientific analysis, I’ve discovered that roughly 57% of the individuals who learn this picks column want they may get an e mail from me every single day. Properly, YOU CAN. I write the Decide Six e-newsletter and it comes out each week day. If you need it despatched your inbox, all it’s a must to do is click here and subscribe. When you enroll, you may begin getting one e mail per day the place I will be pertaining to each NFL-related matter I can consider and even ones I am unable to consider. In case you’re questioning how that is attainable, you may should subscribe. 

Though I am writing the e-newsletter, I nonetheless make time in my busy schedule to hassle Will Brinson three days per week on the Decide Six Podcast. For Tuesday’s episode, which you’ll be able to take heed to under, we spent roughly 27 minutes debating whether or not the Chargers are the most effective staff within the AFC West after which we spent one other three minutes arguing about the place the Raiders are going to complete within the division. 

Alright, that is sufficient self-promotion for one week, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 5 Picks

N.Y. Jets (1-3) vs. Atlanta (1-3) in London

9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Community)

Newest Odds:

Atlanta Falcons

After a two-year hiatus, the London video games are lastly returning, which is sweet information for me, as a result of I’ve a number of tea and crumpets in my pantry that have to be consumed. Positive, I may have eaten the crumpets and drank the tea at any level over the previous two years, however that is not how I do issues. The one time I devour tea and/or crumpets is on Sunday mornings when there’s an NFL sport being performed in London. 

It is most likely factor that there have been no worldwide video games final yr, as a result of that makes it extra doubtless that the individuals of London will not be upset that we’re sending them the Jets and Falcons. Usually, I might say that is arguably an act of warfare, however they are going to be so completely happy simply to have soccer that they don’t seem to be going to care that we’re sending them two of the worst groups within the NFL. 

That being mentioned, this sport may really get loopy and that is as a result of almost each Falcons sport in some way finally ends up being completely bonkers. The final time the Falcons went to London again in 2014, they blew a 21-0 halftime result in the Lions and misplaced 22-21, which I imagine continues to be remembered as the best collapse in franchise historical past. Simply kidding, everyone knows that is Super Bowl LI. 

I feel what I am making an attempt to say right here is that when you’ve watched any Falcons sport ever, then you definitely already understand how this sport goes to play out: The Falcons could have an enormous lead going into the second half after which undergo a spectacular collapse that can nearly make you’re feeling sorry for them, however then you definitely’ll keep in mind this occurs to them each week and that they are really used to it. 

The decide: Jets 22-19 over Falcons

Which picks are you able to make with confidence, and which Tremendous Bowl contender goes down exhausting? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and discover out.

New Orleans (2-2) at Washington (2-2)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

New Orleans Saints

After watching Washington and the Saints over the primary month of the season, I’ve come to appreciate that I apparently know nothing about choosing any sport that includes both of these two groups. To be extra clear: I’m embarrassingly dangerous at choosing Saints and Washington video games. 

After 4 weeks, I am 0-4 choosing Washington’s video games and I am 0-4 choosing Saints video games making them the one two groups within the NFL that I’ve fully whiffed on this yr. In case you do not like doing math, meaning I am 0-8 mixed choosing these two groups, which does not even appear attainable when you think about that I am 41-15 choosing video games that contain the opposite 30 groups that are not Washington or New Orleans. 

I have not been this unsuitable about something because the time I attempted to persuade people who “Smurfs 2” was film. Spoiler alert: It was not film and it isn’t even near nearly as good as the primary “Smurfs” film, which is an all-time basic when you like motion pictures about tiny blue individuals.

The missed picks are beginning to get out of hand. I imply, in Week 4, I picked the Saints to beat the Giants and so they blew an 11-point lead over the ultimate seven minutes. On Washington’s finish, I picked them to lose to the Falcons and so they in some way gained though they have been dropping by eight with 4 minutes left. 

It doesn’t matter what I predict, it finally ends up being unsuitable. If I predicted the Saints to beat Washington by 47 this week, they might lose by 74. 

For the reason that reverse of what I predict at all times appears to occur when these two groups play, I’ve determined to take that under consideration and I will predict the other of what I feel goes to occur. My intestine initially informed me to take the Saints, however I am ignoring my intestine and going with Washington. Final week, I attempted this very same technique with the Chargers — I used to be 0-3 choosing their video games heading into Week 4 — and it labored. I’m not winless choosing Chargers video games.

I am taking Washington, and in the event that they lose, I am locking myself in a room with a “Smurfs 2” DVD and by no means popping out, properly, besides possibly to eat and use the toilet, and for different stuff, however principally by no means popping out. 

The decide: Washington 20-17 over Saints

Denver (3-1) at Pittsburgh (1-3)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Newest Odds:

Pittsburgh Steelers

This sport is fascinating to me, as a result of I imagine it is the one sport on the schedule this week the place each head coaches would favor to be beginning every other quarterback moreover the one they’re beginning. In Denver, there is a good likelihood that Drew Lock may very well be taking part in on Sunday as a consequence of the truth that Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion on Sunday. Mainly, the Broncos are both going to be rolling with a banged up Bridgewater or a QB in Lock who led the Broncos to precisely zero factors in a single half of motion towards the Ravens

Usually, I might say that favors the Steelers, however their QB scenario is not a lot better proper now. I imply, Mike Tomlin was virtually begging Aaron Rodgers to come back play for Pittsburgh on Sunday. 

That is like taking your partner out to dinner after which asking the waitress out on a date when she drops off the examine. Ben is ON THE SIDELINE WITH YOU MIKE, he is watching you give Aaron GOOGLY EYES.  

As you possibly can most likely inform, I am not anticipating a lot from both quarterback on this sport, which implies it should come right down to protection and particular groups play. Though I feel Roethlisberger goes to wrestle towards the Broncos, I feel Denver’s quarterback — whoever it’s — goes to be even worse towards the Steelers. 

If this sport have been being performed in Denver, I might most likely decide the Broncos, however it’s being performed in Pittsburgh, so I am rolling with the Steelers. 

The decide: Steelers 19-16 over Broncos

Cleveland (3-1) at L.A. Chargers (3-1)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

Los Angeles Chargers

I am not going to say that Browns coach Kevin Stefanski can flip water into wine, however I do know that he can work miracles and that is as a result of he is labored one in Cleveland. Stefanski hasn’t even been on the job for one and a half seasons and he already has extra wins (15) than the Browns three previous coaches COMBINED (14). 

The following miracle he’ll should work is determining easy methods to win a sport within the pacific time zone, as a result of that is one thing the Browns appear to wrestle at. Of their previous 10 journeys out west, the Browns have gone 1-9 straight-up and that solely win got here in 2012, which is like 27 coaches in the past for the Browns. 

The Browns can even be going into this sport with a QB who’s struggling together with his accuracy. Since finishing 90.5% of his passes towards the Texans in Week 2, Baker Mayfield has forgotten easy methods to throw the soccer. Over the previous two weeks mixed, Mayfield has thrown 30 incompletions (34 of 64) and accomplished simply 53.1% of his passes. Of these 30 misses, I am fairly certain 29 of them have been thrown over Odell Beckham’s head on Sunday towards Minnesota.

Usually, when a quarterback is taking part in that badly, I might decide his staff to lose by three touchdowns, however this is not a traditional scenario. For one, though the passing sport is not as much as par, every little thing else appears to be clicking for the Browns from their protection to their working sport to their particular groups. 

That center one might be crucial and that is as a result of the Browns can be going up towards a Chargers staff that at the moment has one of many worst rush defenses in soccer. With Mayfield struggling, I will not be shocked if Stefanski calls 45 run performs on this sport. 

The Browns have performed in two street video games this yr and so they’ve each been determined by one rating, so I assume that implies that I ought to assume that this sport can also be going to be determined by one-score.  

The decide: Chargers 23-20 over Browns

Buffalo (3-1) at Kansas Metropolis (2-2)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Newest Odds:

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

In case you watched the Chiefs sport in Week 4, you might have seen that they did not punt the complete sport. As a matter of truth, the Chiefs’ win over Philadelphia marked simply the fourth time in NFL historical past {that a} sport ended with two groups combining for ZERO punts. 

The one cause I am bringing that up is as a result of the Chiefs punter may need to go forward and plan on taking off this week too. For that matter, Bills punter Matt Haack may additionally need to take into account taking the day without work. I’ve a sense there aren’t going to be very many punts on Sunday night time and that is as a result of this sport will function two of the three highest-scoring groups within the NFL. The Payments and Chiefs have every scored 33.5 factors per sport this yr, which is tied for the second within the league. 

Mainly, each of those groups have a high-scoring offense, so I am considering that that is going to come back right down to whose protection can play higher. Sadly for Kansas Metropolis, evaluating these two defenses is like evaluating a coated wagon to a Ferrari: One is so a lot better than the opposite that it nearly appears unfair to check them. 

On the Chiefs’ finish, they have not been capable of cease anybody this yr. By way of 4 weeks, they’ve given up the second most factors within the NFL and the second most yards. However, the Payments have given up the fewest factors within the NFL this season (simply 11 factors per sport) and so they’ve outscored their final three opponents by a mixed rating of 118-21. They’ve additionally pitched two shut outs by means of the primary 4 weeks, which is nearly remarkable in NFL historical past. 

Talking of the Tremendous Bowl, I picked the Chiefs to get to the Tremendous Bowl in every of the previous two years (2019, 2020) out of the AFC, however I did not decide them this yr and that is as a result of I took the Payments, which I feel means I’ve to choose the Payments on this sport. 

Your complete inhabitants of Buffalo may concurrently smash themselves by means of a folding desk if the Payments pull off the upset on Sunday night time so my recommendation to any story promoting folding tables is to be sure to have as many in inventory as attainable heading into the weekend.

The decide: Payments 37-34 over Chiefs

NFL Week 5 picks: All the remainder

Rams 26-23 over Seahawks
Packers 27-24 over Bengals
Titans 30-23 over Jaguars
Vikings 27-20 over Lions
Panthers 24-16 over Eagles
Cardinals 30-24 over 49ers
Patriots 23-13 over Texans
Raiders 31-24 over Bears
Buccaneers 27-17 over Dolphins
Cowboys 34-24 over Giants
Ravens 31-23 over Colts

Final Week 

Greatest decide: Final week, I predicted that the Dolphins would score 17 points and lose to the Colts and guess what occurred? The Dolphins scored precisely 17 factors and misplaced to the Colts. Now, did I do know that Miami’s offense was going to fall flat on its face for the higher a part of three quarters? After all I did. I imply, have you ever watched this staff play? The Dolphins offense did not work when Tua Tagovailoa was working it so there was a zero p.c likelihood that it was going to work with Jacoby Brissett working it. Additionally, the Dolphins at the moment have two offensive coordinators which is like having two girlfriends who learn about one another and in addition hate one another: You may attempt to persuade your self that it should work, however belief me, it isn’t going to work. 

Worst decide: The Cardinals have been dangerous for thus lengthy that I am principally mechanically programmed to choose towards them in any huge sport, however I am undoubtedly going to should re-think issues going ahead as a result of that technique is de facto beginning to backfire. Final week, I picked the Rams to destroy the Cardinals and when you watched the sport, you might have seen that the Rams undoubtedly did not destroy the Cardinals. As a matter of truth, I am fairly certain the other occurred, however i can not say for certain as a result of I turned the sport off at halftime to play Uno with my cat. That was far more fulfilling than watching the Rams attempt to play soccer.  

Lastly, when you guys have ever puzzled which groups I am really good at choosing, this is a fast look: 

Groups I am 4-0 choosing this yr: Colts, Texans, Jaguars, Broncos, Buccaneers, 49ers.

Groups I am 0-4 choosing this yr: Washington, Saints. 

Picks Report

Straight up in Week 4: 10-6 (10-4 choosing video games that did not contain the Saints or Washington)
SU total: 41-23 (41-15 choosing video games that did not contain the Saints or Washington)

In opposition to the unfold in Week 4: 5-11 (Yikes)
ATS total: 30-32-2

IMPORTANT NOTE: Ryan Wilson is an absurd 43-18-2 towards the unfold this yr and if you wish to know which groups he is choosing to win in Week 5, then be sure to click here. I do know what you are considering and sure, I’ve considered copying his picks, however that is not attainable as a result of he does not make them till Tuesday night time. 

Actual rating predictions: 1
Actual rating, unsuitable winner: 2

You’ll find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he isn’t doing a type of issues, it is as a result of they’re each down. | NFL Week 5 picks: Payments shock Chiefs in Kansas Metropolis, Chargers win thriller over Browns in Los Angeles


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