NFL Week 4 odds, picks: Tom Brady beats Patriots in Foxborough, Chiefs get back on track vs. Eagles

By means of three weeks, we have been handled to fairly the slate of video games within the NFL. Irrespective of which manner you flip, it looks as if we’re watching game-winning area targets, last-second landing drives and various high-profile matchups. It is most definitely taken about five-ish years off all of our lives, however I for one am right here for it. 

As we flip our consideration to Week 4, it does not appear to be that drama goes to decelerate anytime quickly, with the headliner being Tom Brady coming again to Foxborough for the primary time since leaving the Patriots within the spring of 2020. Because the resident New Englander on employees right here at CBS Sports activities who primarily covers the Patriots, it is secure to say this shall be fairly the weekend for yours really. 

That stated, Week 4 has a tricky activity in entrance of it because it tries to stay as much as our very profitable Week 3. We have been an ideal 5-0 ATS on our locks of the week and 11-5 ATS total. We’ll attempt to preserve that momentum rolling as this highly-anticipated week within the NFL kicks off.   

All NFL odds through Caesars Sportsbook.

2021 file

Locks of the Week ATS: 11-2-2
ATS: 26-20-2
ML: 32-16

Newest Odds:

Chicago Bears
-3

Regardless of their 0-3 file on the 12 months, the Lions have been aggressive below first-year head coach Dan Campbell. In actual fact, they’re 2-1 ATS and would have earned their first win of the season had it not been for Ravens kicker Justin Tucker setting a new NFL record with a 66-yard field goal to win the sport as time expired. So whereas many is probably not too shocked concerning the Lions’ file, they have not rolled over. They now get a Bears crew that appears misplaced offensively, even with first-round rookie Justin Fields below middle. (In opposition to Cleveland final week, he was sacked 9 occasions.) Whereas Detroit does not have almost the protection that the Browns do, I like getting the sphere aim bump with a crew that — in my thoughts — has been the higher membership all through the primary three weeks, even when the information do not mirror it. This may be a back-breaking moment for Matt Nagy’s job if the Bears have been upset at residence, which is price monitoring. 

Projected rating: Lions 24, Bears 20
The choose: Lions +3 

Newest Odds:

Inexperienced Bay Packers
-6.5

The Steelers and Packers are groups on two completely totally different trajectories. Over the past two weeks, Inexperienced Bay has righted the ship and gained two straight as Aaron Rodgers returned to his MVP type of a 12 months in the past. In the meantime. the Steelers will come into Lambeau Area on a two-game dropping streak that features an upset loss at residence to the Bengals in Week 3. Ben Roethlisberger appears to be working on empty on his Corridor of Fame profession, and Pittsburgh’s protection is lower than 100% from a well being standpoint. With all that in thoughts, it is laborious to think about the Steelers rolling into Inexperienced Bay and protecting this inside a landing. Following their final eight straight-up losses, Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS. As for the Packers, they’re 5-2 ATS of their final seven as a house favourite. 

Projected rating: Inexperienced Bay 27, Steelers 20
The choose: Packers -6.5 

Newest Odds:

New England Patriots
+7

That is the granddaddy of the Week 4 slate. Whereas this sport is very anticipated as a result of it is Tom Brady’s first trip back to New England since leaving the Patriots in free company in 2020, I do not count on this sport to be notably shut. Tampa Bay is just the higher crew from high to backside, whereas the Patriots are nonetheless wanting to determine their id on offense below rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Tampa’s offensive effectivity ranks contained in the top-five within the NFL, whereas New England sits at twenty sixth total in DVOA, per Soccer Outsiders. Whereas this sport shall be held at Gillette Stadium, I do marvel if the Bucs could have that very same road-crowd-type ambiance with Brady below middle. Regardless, this sport does not really feel like will probably be a lot of a contest. Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS over their final 5 video games following a straight-up loss. The Patriots are 2-5 ATS of their final seven total.  

Projected rating: Buccaneers 30, Patriots 20
The choose: Buccaneers -6.5 

Newest Odds:

Philadelphia Eagles
+7

Surprisingly, the Chiefs have begun the season 1-2 and are presently final within the AFC West. They’re additionally one among 4 groups (Jets, Jaguars, and Washington being the others) to start the 12 months 0-3 ATS. In fact, nobody expects Kansas Metropolis to stay of their present standing, and I count on that upward trajectory to start this week in Philadelphia. Dallas was capable of dangle 41 factors on this Eagles protection whereas Jalen Hurts and the offense managed simply two touchdowns. If that continues — and I anticipate it’s going to — the Chiefs should not have any drawback protecting by a landing right here. Philly is 4-10 ATS of their final 14 video games following a straight-up loss. 

Projected rating: Chiefs 32, Eagles 21
The choose: Chiefs -7

Newest Odds:

New York Jets
+7

Even with a brand new coach and a brand new quarterback, the New York Jets proceed to be the New York Jets. Robert Saleh’s crew is winless by means of three weeks and has but to cowl. Offensively, they have been stagnant with No. 2 total choose Zach Wilson on the helm, averaging simply over six factors per sport. They have been additionally shut out in opposition to the Broncos final week in Denver. They will get to move again to MetLife Stadium this weekend however shall be dealing with a Titans offense that features Derrick Henry, who has been on fireplace over these final two weeks. As long as Tennessee performs to its capabilities, they’re going to win this sport by double digits. For what it is price, the favourite can be 5-1 ATS within the groups’ final six conferences. 

Projected rating: Titans 28, Jets 16
The choose: Titans -7.5 

Remainder of the Bunch

Jaguars at Bengals
Projected rating: Bengals 28, Jaguars 17
The choose: Bengals -7.5 

Washington at Falcons
Projected rating: Falcons 24, Washington 21
The choose: Falcons +1.5

Texans at Bills 
Projected rating: Payments 30, Texans 14
The choose: Texans +16.5

Panthers at Cowboys
Projected rating: Cowboys 28, Panthers 21
The choose: Cowboys -5

Colts at Dolphins 
Projected rating: Dolphins 21, Colts 17
The choose: Dolphins -1.5

Browns at Vikings
Projected rating: Browns 27, Vikings 24
The choose: Browns -2 

Giants at Saints
Projected rating: Saints 28, Giants 17
The choose: Saints -8

Cardinals at Rams 
Projected rating: Rams 30, Cardinals 23
The choose: Rams -4.5

Seahawks at 49ers 
Projected rating: 49ers 27, Seahawks 24
The choose: 49ers -2.5

Ravens at Broncos 
Projected rating: Ravens 27, Broncos 23
The choose: Ravens +1

Raiders at Chargers 
Projected rating: Chargers 30, Raiders 24
The choose: Chargers -3.5

So which picks are you able to make with confidence? And which undefeated crew goes down laborious? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and discover out.