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NFL Week 3 picks plus Prisco’s power rankings and how one gambler lost out on $736,000 due to Lions loss

Welcome to the Decide Six E-newsletter! 

Blissful Tuesday to everybody on the market; effectively, apart from the man who misplaced out on $736,000 as a result of he wanted the Lions to win final night time. It is most likely not a cheerful Tuesday for him. 

I’ve to say although, final night time’s recreation was much more thrilling than I believed it might be. I assumed I would have the ability to flip the sport off earlier than the primary half ended as a result of the Packers could be up 28-0, however I could not try this as a result of the Lions truly LED 17-14 at halftime. 

Perhaps biting kneecaps off is a greater soccer philosophy than all of us thought. It is also doable the Lions had been pumped up as a result of they had been carrying white pants for the primary time SINCE 1949. Positive, you are not speculated to put on white after Labor Day, however I feel the Lions truly made it work (You’ll be able to take a look at their particular uniform combination from last night by clicking here). In fact, biting kneecaps and particular uniforms will solely take you thus far. The Lions went full Lions within the second half and ended up shedding 35-17. 

Anyway, we’ve got a jam-packed e-newsletter that features picks for this week plus Prisco’s Week 3 Energy Rankings, so we should always most likely get to the rundown. We’ll additionally clarify how the Lions value that man $736,000. 

As all the time, this is your weekly reminder to inform all your pals to join the Decide Six e-newsletter. To get your pals to enroll, all it’s important to do is click here and then share this link with them. 

1. At present’s present: Recapping the Packers’ win over the Lions

 

I used to be absolutely anticipating this recreation to be a complete snoozer, however the Lions truly made issues fascinating. At the least for the primary half. After taking a 17-14 lead into the locker room at halftime, the Lions completely imploded within the second half and did not rating a single level. 

Are the Lions higher than we thought? What number of video games can they win this yr? Are we nonetheless anxious in regards to the Packers although they gained? We answered these questions and extra on our Tuesday episode of the Decide Six Podcast. 

Not solely did we reply these questions, however listed here are three key issues from the sport that we additionally touched on: 

  • Aaron Rodgers appears like Aaron Rodgers. After a tough begin to the season, Aaron Rodgers lastly regarded like Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback obtained off to a scorching begin within the first half with two landing passes after which solely obtained even higher as the sport went on. Not solely did he end 22 of 27 for 255 yards and 4 touchdowns, however he additionally went an absurd 16 of 17 on second and third down. It was a classic Rodgers efficiency and if he retains enjoying like this, the Packers are going to coast to a division title. The Packers quarterback additionally made a mark on the report e-book, passing John Elway for the tenth most passing yards in NFL historical past. 
  • Aaron Jones has an enormous night time. The Packers working again had a profession recreation with 4 touchdowns. Not solely did Jones do some harm on the bottom (67 yards, one landing), however he additionally did some severe harm by the air (six catches, 48 yards, three touchdowns). With the efficiency, Jones turned just the ninth player since 1950 to report three receiving TDs and a speeding TD in a single recreation. I hope you were not enjoying him in fantasy. 
  • Lions implode within the second half. The Lions truly obtained off to a scorching begin on this recreation and that was largely due to Jared Goff, who went 13 of 16 for 137 yards and two touchdowns in a primary half that ended with Detroit within the lead. The Lions had an opportunity to maintain this recreation shut within the second half, however then they completely melted down. On their first possession of the half, they failed on a fourth-and-1. On their second possession of the half, Goff fumbled a snap away on first down. The Packers ended up scoring a TD after each errors and at that time, the rout was on.  

We talked about these three issues plus all the pieces else you might presumably wish to learn about Monday’s recreation, so you should definitely test it out. To hearken to as we speak’s episode — and to subscribe to one of the best each day NFL podcast on the market — be sure to click here

2. Prisco’s Energy Rankings heading into Week 3

With Week 2 formally within the bag after the Packers’ win over the Lions, Pete Prisco obtained busy final night time rearranging his energy rankings. Though I will be trustworthy, he did not do a lot rearranging within the prime 5: We even have the identical prime 5 groups as final week, simply in a barely completely different order. 

This is a take a look at Prisco’s prime 5 groups heading into Week 3, which options the 2 Super Bowl groups from final season and three groups from the NFC West: 

  1. Buccaneers
  2. 49ers 
  3. Rams
  4. Cardinals
  5. Chiefs

I am not going to spoil the remainder of the ability rankings right here, however I’m going to present you just a few nuggets. This is what has modified since final week: 

  • Prisco is just not sleeping on the Panthers anymore. After watching them destroy the Saints on Sunday, he moved Carolina up 12 spots, which was the most important bounce made by any staff this week. Due to the win, the Panthers vaulted up from twenty third to eleventh.    
  • The most important general tumble went to 3 completely different groups, who all tied for the distinction. The Saints, Steelers and Seahawks all fell seven spots after shedding in Week 3. The Saints fell from sixth to thirteenth whereas the Steelers dropped from seventh to 14th. The Seahawks completed proper behind these two, falling from eighth to fifteenth.   
  • The most important bounce within the AFC this week went to the Raiders, who vaulted up eight spots following their stunning win over the Steelers. Prisco moved them up from sixteenth to eighth. 
  • In information that most likely will not shock lots of you, the Jaguars are ranked useless final, and based mostly on how they performed Sunday, I am beginning to assume they is likely to be there for the complete season, though the Falcons are approaching robust with two ugly losses to begin the yr.     

If you wish to know the place your favourite staff ended up in Prisco’s Week 3 Energy Rankings, be sure to click here. If you wish to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him on a regular basis about all the pieces. 

3. Breech’s Week 3 picks

If it is Tuesday, that may solely imply one factor: It is time for my weekly picks. 

If that is your first season with us, this is how the formulation works round right here: I keep up till an insane hour each Monday night time in order that I can provide you my picks each Tuesday morning. This text will characteristic three of my picks after which for those who really feel like studying the remainder of them, you can click through here and check them out. Even for those who do not feel like studying them, you need to nonetheless click on by as a result of I receives a commission 9 cents per click on. 

With that in thoughts, listed here are three of my picks for Week 3:  

  • Buccaneers at Rams (Decide’em): If I am a 44-year-old quarterback, the final individual on the planet I wish to go up in opposition to is Aaron Donald. The best way you beat Tom Brady is by placing quite a lot of strain on him and we all know the Rams can try this. The Rams truly beat the Buccaneers final yr and a part of the rationale it occurred was as a result of Brady was compelled into having considered one of his worst video games. He threw 22 incompletions, he threw two interceptions and he was flustered for many of the night time. I feel we’ll see quite a lot of that very same stuff occur this yr. PICK: Rams 34-31 over Buccaneers. 
  • New Orleans at New England (-3): The thought of Jameis Winston going up in opposition to a Invoice Belichick protection looks as if a mismatch of epic proportions, form of like me going up in opposition to Celine Dion in a karaoke contest. We noticed Jameis battle in opposition to the Panthers in Week 2 and I truly assume issues are going to be far more troublesome for him this week. I will not be shocked if we see a traditional Jamies recreation the place he throws a number of interceptions with at the least one pick-six. For me, this recreation goes to come back down as to whether Mac Jones can transfer the ball in opposition to the Saints protection and I feel he’ll just do sufficient to get the win and the quilt. PICK: Patriots 20-16 over Saints. 
  • Atlanta at New York Giants (-5): The Falcons is likely to be the worst staff in soccer. Not solely are they 0-2, however they’ve misplaced these two video games by an AVERAGE of 24.5 factors per recreation. Their offense is dangerous, their protection is dangerous and I am unsure they will have sufficient time to get issues circled earlier than Sunday. Additionally, Eli Manning is having his jersey retired at this recreation and I can not see the Giants shedding on Eli Manning jersey retirement night time, though that may be a typical Giants transfer. PICK: Giants 31-23 over Falcons.  

To verify out the rest of my picks for Week 3, be sure to click here

4. One factor we discovered about every staff in Week 2

Now that each one 16 video games from Week 2 have been performed, Cody Benjamin determined to wade by the aftermath to determine what we discovered about every staff. For some groups, just like the Panthers, this was a superb factor as a result of we discovered that Sam Darnold simply wanted to go away the Jets to be good. For different groups, just like the Dolphins, this was a foul factor, as a result of it is beginning to appear like they may not be nearly as good as they had been final yr.

This is a take a look at what we discovered about 5 groups: 

  • Cowboys: Give Tony Pollard extra touches. “Even with Ezekiel Elliott posting strong numbers of their win, Tony Pollard is clearly the staff’s most explosive again. Think about if Dallas retains feeding him as their prime possibility out of the backfield.”
  • Raiders: This staff is likely to be for actual. “An upset of the Ravens, adopted by a street win over the Steelers? Is Derek Carr actually onto one thing, or is he simply teasing us once more? Proper now, their inventory is up.”
  • Steelers: The offense appears horrible. “With Ben Roethlisberger bodily and/or schematically confined to a short-area strategy, they want their protection to hold them. This was form of obvious earlier than, nevertheless it retains getting bolstered.”
  • Buccaneers: They appear like one of the best staff within the NFC. “Tom Brady is throwing it like he is 25. Their protection is again to creating splash performs. Sure, loads can occur between now and the playoffs, however they appear explosive.”
  • Cardinals: Kyler Murray is enjoying at an MVP stage. “After reeling off one highlight-reel shot after one other in a shootout win over Minnesota, Kyler Murray is an early MVP candidate. And if he retains it up, the Cardinals can be within the playoff race.”

If you wish to see the one factor we discovered about all 32 groups, you possibly can check out Cody’s entire story by clicking here

5. NFL gambler loses out on $736,000 resulting from Lions loss

 

An NFL gambler nearly pulled off one of the vital unlikely parlays of all-time in Week 2, however he ended up lacking out on an opportunity to win greater than $700,000 due to the Lions.

The gambler put collectively a 16-team parlay over at BetMGM the place he tried to choose the winner in all 16 NFL games that had been performed in Week 2. The gambler guess $25 on his parlay and if he might have gotten a Lions win on Monday night time, he would have gained $736,959.

Via Sunday night time, he was 15-for-15 with EVERY single considered one of his picks hitting. 

This is a take a look at what his picks had been by the primary 15 video games. 

Washington over Giants (-175)
Bears over Bengals (-130)
Browns over Texans (-650)
Rams over Colts (-190)
Bills over Dolphins (-175)
Patriots over Jets (-250)
49ers over Eagles (-160)
Raiders over Steelers (+190)
Panthers over Saints (+150)
Broncos over Jaguars (-275)
Cardinals over Vikings (-190)
Buccaneers over Falcons (-650)
Cowboys over Chargers (+135)
Titans over Seahawks (+190)
Ravens over Chiefs (+180)

First, let me simply level out how inconceivable it’s that this parlay was even alive going into Monday. To start with, he nearly misplaced in on the very first recreation of Week 2. If the Giants do not bounce offsides on Washington’s game-winning discipline objective try, then New York would have gained. 

This man additionally would have misplaced the parlay if the Vikings beat the Cardinals, however that did not occur as a result of Greg Joseph missed a 37-yard discipline objective on the ultimate play of the sport. Additionally, he might have misplaced the parlay if the Chiefs or Seahawks gained, however that did not occur as a result of they BOTH blew a double-digit lead within the second half. The Seahawks blew a 15-point lead at dwelling which had NEVER occurred in franchise historical past earlier than Sunday. 

Heading into Monday, the gambler could not money out his parlay as a result of he had used a $25 free guess, which made him ineligible for a cash-out. The good factor to do on this state of affairs could be to hedge, however meaning he would have wanted to guess roughly $600,000 on the Packers to ensure a payout of $100,000. As most traditional folks know, attempting to search out somebody to mortgage you $600,00 is not simple. 

I don’t know if this man ended up hedging, however I do know he did not win the $736,000, as a result of the Lions ended up shedding. The unhappy factor right here is that if he had rolled with the Packers for the ultimate leg of his parlay, he would have ended up profitable roughly $150,000 on a free $25 guess. 

The ethical of the story right here is rarely guess on the Lions. 

6. Fast-fire roundup

It has been a busy 24 hours within the NFL and because it’s practically unattainable to maintain observe of all the pieces that occurred, I went forward and put collectively a roundup for you. Our roundup as we speak is usually an replace on each quarterback harm that occurred over the weekend. 

  • Deshaun Watson undoubtedly will not play Thursday, Davis Mills in. With Tyrod Taylor out, there was some hypothesis that the Texans may attempt to persuade Watson to play this week in opposition to the Panthers, however that will not be occurring. Coach David Culley made it clear that Watson can be inactive for the sport. Davis Mills would be the starter and Jeff Driskel, who’s presently on the observe squad, will possible be the backup.
  • Tua Tagovailoa might play on Sunday. The Dolphins quarterback suffered a rib harm in Week 2 and though it is nonetheless unclear when he’ll be again on the sphere, he might play this week in opposition to the Raiders. Dolphins coach Brian Flores mentioned on Monday that Tua is “day-to-day.” 
  • Derek Carr questionable for Week 3. There’s an opportunity that each beginning quarterbacks may very well be out for the Dolphins-Raiders recreation this week. Derek Carr injured his ankle in opposition to the Steelers on Sunday and Jon Gruden mentioned this week that Carr is “questionable” for the sport in opposition to Miami. Gruden additionally added that Josh Jacobs is “very questionable” for the sport. 
  • Colts don’t know if Carson Wentz will have the ability to play this week. Frank Reich is hoping Carson Wentz will have the ability to play this week in opposition to the Titans, however there is no assure that is going to occur after Wentz damage each his ankles in Week 2. Reich desires him to play, however would not know if it is going to be doable. “My historical past with Carson is that he is a reasonably quick healer and he is powerful. If there’s any likelihood he can play with these ankle sprains, he’ll play. It is an extremely large recreation,” Reich said Monday
  • Andy Dalton would be the Bears starter if he is wholesome. Throughout a clumsy press convention on Monday, Bears coach Matt Nagy wasn’t initially going to decide to a starter, however then he later confirmed that Dalton would be the Bears quarterback on Sunday if he’s healthy enough to play. Dalton injured his knee in opposition to the Bengals in Week 2. If Dalton cannot go, then Justin Fields can be underneath middle. 
  • Buccaneers have reached out to Richard Sherman. With beginning cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting now on injured reserve, the Buccaneers want some assist in the secondary, which is why they reached out to Sherman this week, in line with Bruce Arians. The Buccaneers coach famous that Sherman has some “different issues occurring,” which could hold him from signing anytime quickly. The veteran nook was charged with five misdemeanors after a authorized incident in July. 
  • Al Micheals may very well be headed to Amazon. With Amazon on the brink of completely take over “Thursday Night time Soccer” in 2022, the corporate is seeking to make splash and that splash may very well be the hiring of Michaels. In accordance to the New York Post, the web firm is 90% more likely to rent the well-known broadcaster. Michaels is anticipated to be accessible for the hiring as a result of his NBC contract is expiring after the 2021 season. 
  • Taco Tuesday in Pittsburgh. Former Cowboys’ first-round choose Taco Charlton is in Pittsburgh as we speak present process a bodily for the Steelers. In accordance to NFL.com, if the bodily goes effectively, the staff’s plan is signal Charlton to their observe squad. 

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