What a great week for sportsbooks, as favorites are up 5-9 from the spread of the lines I used in my column last week. We went 2-3 of our top five picks, because New Orleans Saints beat us with Tennessee Titans, and Los Angeles Rams failed to resist San Francisco 49ers. In addition, I made The Arizona Cardinals choose when Orange Newton not a member of Carolina Panthers. I didn’t know he would infuse the franchise with as much incredible energy as he did.
We’ve had a bad couple of weeks but I know a change is coming. This week is sure to be a fun week, because Dallas Cowboys take a trip to Kansas City to make it Chief, and Newton held his former head coach in Ron Rivera.
Let’s jump into the options. See the stats for the season below.
Top five picks record: 28-22
Overall ATS record: 69-80-1
Straight up record: 92-57-1
ATS record 2020: 125-120-9 (2 official picks missed due to COVID reschedule)
Washington football team at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Carolina Panthers -3.5
I don’t know if Newton is a legit start signal caller right now. What I do know, however, is that he injected some serious energy into this franchise. Even with Colt McCoy under the center of the Cardinals last week, I didn’t expect the Panthers to do what they did. Bank of America Stadium will start rocking with Newton starting in his first game for the Panthers since September 12, 2019 and Rivera’s return is just a cherry on top. Carolina’s attack may not be able to score 34 more points, but the number 2 defense of the tournament will be eliminated.
Washington are leading 1-3 this season and have scored exactly 10 points in each of their last two games. Taylor Heinicke very interesting to watch but the defense has lost a leader in Chase Young last week and also Montez Sweat Still not cured due to jaw injury. Again, I’m not sure how the Panthers will go when we finish the season, but I’ll rely on the momentum Newton is bringing with him into this game. Panthers -3.5 is currently +100, so wait and see if it drops to -3. I want it there.
Selection: Panthers -3.5
Expected score: Panthers 23-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Miami Dolphin -3
The Dolphins’ defense is back in shape, as this unit has been playing well over the past few weeks. They have recorded 9.0 sacks since Week 9, tied with most NFL within that timeframe and recorded six lessons learned over the past two games, again the most tied in the NFL for that timeframe. As for the jets, their defense was absolutely brutal. They are walking away from a 45-17 defeat suffered at the hands of Buffalo Bills, and are allowing 32.9 points and 417.1 yards per game – both ranked last in the league and the worst in franchise history.
Joe Flacco will start using Jet for the first time since trading from Philadelphia Eagles. He’ll be under some pressure, though, as the Dolphins have pressured 35% of the league’s top dropout this season, according to TruMedia. The Jets have allowed pressure on 38% of dropouts this season, ranking fourth worst in the league. Three of the Jets’ last four losses had at least 15 points, so I’ll put three with Tagovailoa and copper.
Selection: Dolphin -3
Expected score: Dolphin 24-10
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Buffalo Bills -7
While facing the Jets, the Bills looked great on both sides of the ball last week. I’m ready to forget that strange loss to Jacksonville Jaguars a few weeks ago. As for the Colts, this season they are the team with a 0-4 win record, and lost to teams with a 5-1 loss record.
In a league full of attack, there aren’t many defences that I believe in. However, Bill of Lading is one of them. They lead the league in points per game (15), yards per game (4.6), yards allowed per game (274.1), third percentage drop (29.5) and number one. points spent (24). Buffalo has the third best defense in the league and the second best defense. I think they can accommodate Jonathan Taylor. In terms of offense, the Bills have an average of the second best 31.1 points per game. Even with just six points against the Jaguars!
Selection: Bill -7
Expected score: Invoice 31-21
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
San Francisco 49ers -6
Listen, I don’t want to be one of those people who look at a game more than a game, but maybe the 49ers are back on track against the Rams. 49ers ran the ball 44 times in 156 yards, the defense was forced to reverse twice, Deebo Samuel recorded a great performance in the receiving game and Jimmy Garoppolo throws twice hitting the ground and only four times failing to finish. Looks like the 2019 49ers have come to Super Bowl – It’s a exactly what Garoppolo said after the game. The 49ers have the potential to be one of the better teams in the NFL. They only have to rely on the running game and the physicality of the offensive and defensive fronts.
The 49ers are winning 3-1 on the road this season and 15-5 against San Francisco since 2019. That’s the third-best away record in that timeframe. I don’t think the 49ers beat Jags, but I’ll take six.
Selection: 49ers -6
Expected score: 49ers 24-17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Las Vegas Raiders +1
The Raiders are losing 41-14 games to the Chiefs, but they only dropped three points in the first half of the third quarter. Like the Raiders, the Bengals have recorded two embarrassing losses in a row. The first to resist Mike White and the Jets, and then Cincy was dominated by Nick Chubb and Cleveland Browns, 41-16. Worse still, the Bengalis had just had a good-bye week. Normally, you would think that would help a team regroup, but the teams that are about to split a week are 5-11 ATS this season.
Joe Burrow has struggled a bit in his last few games. He is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions with Sam Darnold (11), and intercepted for five consecutive games – this is the longest running streak in the NFL. On the defensive side, only the Jets have more points per game and yards per game than the Bengals since Halloween. I see this as a return match for the Raid gamers.
Selection: Raiders +1
Expected score: Raiders 27-24
Other options of Week 11
Patriots 28-24 more Eagle (+7)
Saints (+1.5) 27-23 vs Eagles
Ravens (-4,5) 28-20 all Bear
Browns 26-17 on Lion (+11.5)
Titans 30-21 more Texans (+10)
Vikings (+2) 28-27 out Packers
Cowboys (+2.5) 35-31 on Chiefs
Cardinals (-2.5) more than 24-21 Seahawks
Charger (-5.5) more than 29-21 Steelsmith
Sugarcane seller 30-23 more Giant (+11)
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-11-odds-picks-best-bets-cam-newton-wins-in-return-to-carolina-dolphins-continue-win-streak/ NFL Week 11 Best Odds, Picks, Bets: Cam Newton wins game against Carolina, Dolphins continue winning streak