Left to vote

Emmanuel Macron once held Donald Trump’s hand. I don’t see Joe Biden doing that.

Macron is 44 years old. Biden will turn 80 in November. Macron, a former finance minister and son of a doctor and professor of neurology, studied philosophy and worked as an investment banker. Biden grew up in a middle-class home in Pennsylvania and Delaware. Finally, his father also succeeded as a car salesman. Macron is very French. Biden in American is apple pie. The politics of France and America are very different.

However, following Macron’s victory in France’s first-round presidential election over the weekend, senior White House officials are watching very closely the run to the final round of the vote. France. For all the differences between the two leaders, their political destinies lead to a common challenge: Both must campaign voters to the political left to ensure that their countries don’t turn right. difficult with potentially devastating domestic and international consequences.

Macron finished first among all the candidates in last Sunday’s election. He won about 28 percent of the vote. In second place, thus earning the right to face him in the run-up, was right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen, who earned just over 23% of the vote. The third-place finisher, representing the French left, was Jean-Luc Mélenchon with 22 percent of the vote. Mélenchon immediately urged his supporters not to vote for Le Pen but refused to explicitly support Macron, who has been criticized by those on both the left and the right as a “president for the rich.” .

Polls predict that Macron will overtake Le Pen. One shows Macron’s lead as very narrow with 51% to 49%, while another shows him with the support of 54% of voters. But it all comes after an election that saw record turnout from a disgruntled French voter.

Macron’s popularity, like Biden’s, has been lagged by inflation and the lingering effects of COVID. In fact, while the most recent Morning Consult leader ratings show Biden with an approval rating of 44 percent, Macron is at 39 percent. (It should be noted that many leaders have been bearing the brunt of the global economic and public health challenges of the past few years, with people coming from Germany, Japan, the UK, Australia, South Korea and most other countries. other developed countries, not more and sometimes less commonly than the president of the United States.)

Voter dissatisfaction could prove important in French elections. Indeed, voter turnout among Mélenchon’s supporters could prove decisive. If the right is mobilized and the left does not emerge, a close race between Macron and Le Pen could tilt in favor of the right-wing leader. This echoes the concerns of some Democratic leaders in the US, who have faced the uphill struggle that midterm elections typically represent the incumbent president’s party. that supporters are disappointed that the remaining key US foundational priorities are not being adopted. Home page. Just as Mélenchon supporters could land a shock victory if they stay at home, if core Democratic constituencies don’t show up by November, the GOP could win back both the Senate and the House of Representatives. House and perhaps a very substantial majority in the House.

Le Pen hit back at anti-immigrant rhetoric and nationalism and refocused on economic issues that concern many French voters. She has also moved away from her previous embrace of Vladimir Putin, going further after the invasion of Ukraine and destroying millions of pieces of campaign documents featuring pictures of her and the Russian leader. In American terms, she was Youngkinized herself.

Meanwhile, Macron has reached out to win the approval of leftist leaders. He also abandoned a proposal to raise the retirement age, which was very unpopular with the left wing. And he has stepped up his criticism of Le Pen as a threat to Europe in times of crisis, given her historic Europeanism, proximity to Putin and proposed withdrawal of France from the command structure. of NATO.

These steps anticipate what Biden and the Democrats will likely have to do in the months leading up to November. Proposals to help offset inflation have been put forward as in this week’s announcement of regulations. allowing for a higher ethanol content in gasoline (which would help lower prices). Expect many such steps. Similarly, while Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson’s recent confirmation to the Supreme Court is expected to garner support among Black voters, further steps will be needed due to the inability to pass reforms. way of voting rights. One more step Pramila Jayapal, head of the Congressional Radical Conference, has recommended is to cancel student debt, which she calls a “racial equity issue”—a single step she has taken. It is estimated to increase the wealth of black families in America by 40%.

Biden is also expected to turn up the heat on GOP leaders and senior members who are pro-Vladimir Putin and weak in favor of NATO, just as Macron did with Le Pen. The current global crisis underscores the importance of a stronger Atlantic Alliance, which Biden has played a central role in rebuilding, and is felt among the senior Democrats that I see. spoke that the coming months will see more approaches toward Trump and top Republicans on that front as well as in their bid to overturn the 2020 election.

While the French election will not necessarily predict what happens in the US, over the next two weeks Washington will pay close attention to what happens to a centrist leader facing global circumstances. challenging and a tough race against a right-wing surrogate who poses a legitimate threat to Western Security and Coherence.

Democrats here will be looking for lessons they can draw from in an effort to energize both the left and center elements of their establishment to produce an outcome next month. 11 upsets the grim expectations of many experts and pollsters.