Joe Biden and Democrats should be absolutely horrified by these new poll numbers

In Ernest Hemingway’s The sun also rises, one character was asked how he went bankrupt. “Gradually, then suddenly” was the answer.

This formula can also help explain the feeling of losing an election. President Joe Biden’s fall to popular support has lasted so long that a new Quinnipiac poll showing him with only a 33% approval rating (!) has been greeted mostly with positives. yawn.

Dig a little deeper, though, and things are even scarier for Democrats.

Biden is voting with a dismal 24% approval among Hispanics (with 54% disagreeing). And while his number among African-Americans still on the water is 63%, his number is down nearly 20 percentage points since last April.

This poll may form a new low, but it is no exception. The trends are clear. NBC News recently compared the poll from 2018 (a great midterm year for the Dems) to its own poll in 2022 — and college-educated women are only the cohort has become greener. (In contrast, NBC News found a “pronunciation [Republican] Steve Kornacki noted in the men 20 points.)

So why is all this happening, and what does it mean? Please unzip this.

There are a lot of theories as to why Hispanics are giving up eating at Biden, but let’s start with a few options.

Many Hispanics work in the service sector, and have been disproportionately damaged by the strikes (a policy more likely to be associated with the Democratic Party). Some Hispanics who came to the US from socialist countries suffered from political repression and failed economies, and as a result, they disliked the Democratic Party’s growing socialist leanings. And some are repelled by the party’s “wake-up” politics. Example: many Latinos really dislike the word “Latinx.” And there is a poll that shows that Hispanic Democrats are particularly muted by the rhetoric of “shame the police”.

What about black Americans? One theory is that Biden’s failure to pass progressive legislation, like a voting rights bill or police reform, is to blame. But there really isn’t any data to suggest that Black voters prioritize these goals. Likewise, Biden’s slide with black Americans began before his legislative defeat. (Interestingly, it seems more plausible that Biden’s vaccine mandates might actually be involved in this decline.)

However, the main explanation is probably simple: Hispanics and African Americans – like so many of us – are worried about inflation.

As Democratic pollster Jay Campbell told CNBC, “The cost of living has blown everything else, including COVID, out of the country. And part of the reason for that is, there are attitudes about the economy that are largely a partisan phenomenon,” Campbell said. “That is not the case with inflation, or at least not at the moment. It’s a top issue for Democrats, independents and Republicans. ”

This makes all the more sense when you consider that inflation hurts low-wage Americans worse than anyone and a disproportionate percentage of minorities in that economic group. As a result, some previously trusted Democratic Party voters may prioritize “working-class” status over their racial identity.

To understand how dangerous this attrition is for Dems, consider that only about 37.5% of Americans have a bachelor’s degree and about 60% of Americans are white (about 65% of whites do not). graduate). Because whites without a college education already have a strong bias toward the Republican Party, the Democrats must be overactive with the Republican Party. everyone else just to keep pace. It’s not enough to win college graduates and minority voters — vital profits. And Joe Biden doesn’t deliver.

Complicating matters further is that the most predictable quick-fix solutions can actually deepen the Democrats’ long-term problems.

If you consider college-educated women to be your core base, what would you do or say to get their voter turnout? And if you think minority votes are important to avert an election tsunami, what do you say or do (aside from actually fixing inflation)?

It’s Catch-22. The fastest way for Democrats to increase their numbers may be to do or say progressive things that ironically cause them to decline in the long run.

In this respect, the Democrats are like a man lost at sea who finally decides to quench his thirst by drinking salt water. And if Democrats stay out, Biden deserves the blame.

After winning the office, Biden quickly ditched the “Biden coalition” that had helped him get elected, and attempted to become LBJ’s second. A disastrous retreat from Afghanistan came before his eyes, and that seems to have started his vote decline. Similarly, Biden’s policies and rhetoric could contribute to a host of problems, including inflation and the border crisis. And finally, Biden’s inability to effectively lead or inspire as a public speaker makes it very difficult for him to change his current trajectory.

With his approval rating hitting a new low, Joe Biden has better hope that April is indeed the most brutal month of the year. We were expecting a complete wipeout for Dems, coming in November. Make no mistake: It could get worse.

The sun also sets.