Javier and Valdez, High and Low

If you happen to’re a baseball nerd like me, you’ve seemingly seen this graph (or a variation of it) earlier than:

wOBA by Launch Angle

The main target must be on launch angles between 0 and 36, or higher at 8-32 levels.

When you get beneath 0 or above 36, it is arduous to be productive. Once more, we do not care about “common” launch angle, however the frequency you will get into the “candy spot”. pic.twitter.com/7JYOPGAd4c

— Tangotiger (@tangotiger) October 14, 2018

Yep, it’s an illustration of how launch angle impacts wOBA. And Tango’s iteration, like many others, is advised via the hitter’s perspective. That is smart – we seldom take into consideration launch angle with respect to pitchers, because it’s trickier for them to regulate the contact they permit. We do know in a broad sense that there are groundball pitchers and fly ball ones, therefore why metrics like xFIP and SIERA stay related.

However particular launch angles will also be helpful in assessing pitchers. A couple of week in the past, I shared this graph with my Twitter followers:

Right here, I ought to make clear that what’s being measured is the year-to-year correlation of the proportion of batted balls inside choose launch angle ranges. What can we take away from this? It seems that pitchers are a lot better at controlling the quantity of maximum contact they permit. Happening the checklist, line drives are a capricious bunch. What we regard as customary groundballs and fly balls are a bit extra manageable. In relation to slap hits or pop-ups, although, pitchers surprisingly account for about half the variance. Go pitchers!

It’s robust to pinpoint precisely why that is the case. A attainable issue is that the inverse is true of hitters (i.e. line drives are their forte), however I haven’t appeared into that but. Or it might be that line drives are by definition finicky, as a loss or achieve of even a couple of levels means a batted ball will get categorised as a grounder or a fly ball as a substitute.

Regardless, we are able to safely assume pitchers don’t merely luck right into a ton of pop-ups. If that’s the case, it is perhaps a good suggestion to take a look at some leaderboards, that are all the time enjoyable. Here’s a checklist of pitchers who’ve allowed the best proportion of batted balls above 40 levels since 2020:

And listed below are the leaders within the beneath -20 levels class:

Hey, there’s our titular duo highlighted in yellow. Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez by themselves are fascinating outliers. However they’re additionally on the identical group. In fact I needed to write in regards to the two as a package deal deal.

First, a couple of phrases about Valdez. You don’t want a leaderboard to inform you that he’s adept at preserving the ball on the bottom – in 232.2 major-league innings, the lefty has recorded a groundball fee of 63.6%. It’s additionally straightforward to see how Valdez pitched his approach in direction of that monstrous determine. Try the place his sinkers, changeups, and curveballs have ended up this season:

The identify of Valdez’s sport is finding down within the zone – low, low, and low. Sinkers and changeups are already identified for inducing weak contact on the bottom, however he attracts out these traits additional via constant command. His personal variations additionally function ridiculous quantities of vertical drop in comparison with the league common. Heck, he’s even eliminated an excellent chunk of spin from his four-seam fastball, a sparingly-used fourth choice that’s sporting a launch angle of destructive two levels thus far. It’s a incredible repertoire. And it doesn’t matter that Valdez tends to permit arduous contact when typically, balls in play fail to achieve the outfield.

In direct distinction, Javier is a prototypical energy pitcher who pairs a tough, rising fastball with a side-spinning slider. It’s additionally not so apparent how or why he induces a lot sky-high contact. Positive, finding one’s fastballs up within the zone helps. That at the least is evident. However what about Javier’s slider? Right here’s what normally occurs when batters make contact towards one:

By no means thoughts that Sean Murphy provided the hitting – since final season, the curious pitch has averaged 30 levels, an eye-raising quantity. And but, it’s not as if sliders normally permit increased launch angles. Clayton Kershaw’s slider barely will get airtime, for instance, and it’s how he’s managed to restrict the harm all through his profession. If a slider’s conduct is set by its wielder, what does Javier do together with his that’s conducive to inducing increased launch angles?

To reply that query, I made a decision to analyze what variables, if any, affect the launch angle of a slider put into play. This was impressed by Ben Clemens’ own attempt to parse a pile of complicated information about sliders. Luckily, as a result of we’re conscious of the traits of Javier’s slider, we are able to slim our search from the get-go. The GIF from earlier tells us his slider clocked in at 80 mph; certainly, that’s about what Javier averages. It’s on the gradual aspect, particularly contemplating his fastball velocity, however is that significant to us? Maybe this specific information about sliders can shed some mild:

What you’re seeing in every row is the median launch angle, which I’ve elected to make use of from right here on to attenuate the affect of outliers. On this case, although, utilizing the common would nonetheless inform you that the slower the slider, the upper the launch angle. Attention-grabbing! Once more, I’m unsure in regards to the why, however this relationship removes a number of the thriller surrounding Javier.

Apart from being slower, Javier’s slider doesn’t sink as a lot as the common slider does; as a substitute, it’s efficient because of the horizontal break it creates. That is one other alternative for a desk, so right here it’s – vertical motion crossed with horizontal, and the way they mix forces to affect launch angle:

There’s quite a bit to think about. Throughout the board, sliders with much less vertical motion end in increased launch angles no matter horizontal motion. I purchase the concept that much less vertical break offers hitters a neater job of lifting the ball. What appears to actually matter, although, is whether or not it’s paired with ample horizontal break. Take into account the way it barely appears to have an effect on launch angle till the rightmost column when, rapidly, there’s a large uptick. There’s presumably a threshold {that a} slider should move, and Javier’s seemingly does. Within the mixture, his pitch information from this season would place him within the highlighted cell.

Lastly, Javier additionally stands out because of the place he locates his slider: Suppose coronary heart of the plate, then shift in direction of the glove-side from his perspective, proper on the strike zone’s edge. That looks like a harmful spot, however not for Javier, whose sliders have permitted a minuscule .140 xwOBA thus far. Is that this one other secret? Median launch angle by vertical and horizontal location says sure:

Larger pitches permit increased launch angles, as do ones located across the coronary heart of the plate – no large shock right here. The tough half is that there’s inevitably covariance between location and motion. How do we all know whether or not a pitcher is intentionally aiming down, or if the motion of his pitch takes him there? In Javier’s case, I suppose it’s each. The pure sweep of his slider leads it astray, however he retains it throughout the confines of the zone. Coupled with a sluggish velocity, the pitch seemingly will get hitters out in entrance and underneath the ball, a two-step recipe for weak, airborne contact.

Amazingly, Javier isn’t sacrificing something to induce such contact – towards the slider, hitters are whiffing 49.6% of the time. It’s the most effective of each worlds. Taking a look at his FanGraphs dashboard, xFIP suggests he’s certain for a rise in dwelling runs allowed, however we all know fly ball pitchers are able to sustaining decrease HR/FB charges. In an analogous vein, though there’s a large hole between Valdez’s ERA and FIP this season, his off-the-charts groundball fee might imply he finally ends up outpacing the latter metric.

Apart from its reinvigorated, uber-patient lineup, one other nice shock for Houston has been the rotation. Zack Greinke remains to be consuming up innings regardless of a dwindling strikeout fee, and Lance McCullers Jr. is the nastiest he’s appeared in years. After a turbulent begin, Jake Odorizzi is popping right into a strong pickup. Then there are the 2 rookies, who seemingly exist on reverse ends of the launch angle spectrum. Framber Valdez has efficiently constructed upon his debut season. There’s an opportunity that Cristian Javier finally ends up as a multi-inning reliever relatively than a starter, however his electrifying efficiency (overshadowed by Gerrit Cole’s gem) towards the Yankees is an indication the Astros are prepared to construct him up. It’s uncommon for a group to have two pitchers with such contrasting profiles. It’s even rarer for each of them to be this good.