How one simple statistic could help sort through the NFL’s enormous parity this season, forecasting the Super Bowl contenders

How in the world can you tell who’s really good this NFL season? And I mean – which team is the legitimate Super Bowl contender? In the AFC, we have 12 teams .500 or higher entering Week 11. Bananas.

In the NFC, four clubs in round one game in the winning column of the final knockout, and four additional teams with only two matches back.

To solve this puzzle, I would like to introduce to you the predictive power of the point differential. Of course, I’m hardly the first to notice any strongly suggestive score difference, but it’s not nearly covered enough and I have some fascinating statistics for you.

But first, I’ll explain the thought process behind what I’m about to show you.

It is known, in NFL, and even in college, where the difference in talent between clubs is more significant, that single point games are almost always coin flips, matches decided by play once or twice. Elite Teams not magically better in tight competitions than lesser teams, they are just much better at blowing up opponents and conversely, are rarely blown away.

What that phenomenon indirectly says is that the really great teams are the ones with a large positive score gap. They don’t play many single point games or lose big, and most of their wins are convincing.

History – and especially recent history – makes a huge claim that, at the end of every regular season, we should all consider the top five teams with a point difference as the most likely ones. get close Super Bowl, go to the Super Bowl, or win the Super Bowl.

The five most recent Super Bowl winners – and seven of the last eight – finish in the top five in regular-season points difference.

Furthermore, 16 of the 20 most recent conference title entrants hailed from the prestigious top five for point difference in the season in which they advanced to the NFL’s finals. That’s 80%. Shocking.

Does this indicator test with a larger sample size? Yes sir. Over the past decade, 31 of the 40 conference attendees have been the top five teams by point difference that season. That’s 77.5%. And 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl participants, yes, were in the top 5 with a point difference.

Of course, the point difference will fluctuate during the final half of the regular season. But right now, Receipt have different league best scores at +145. Prior to Thursday Night Football in Week 11, Patriots and Quantity came in second with +98. After the clubs? NS Cowboys at +89, Sugarcane seller at +67 and Titan at +46.

Those currently hovering near the top year include Saints and Rams (+44), Colts (+38), and Packers (+36).

NS Steelsmith, Charger, Brown, and Raiders each has five wins with a negative point difference. On the other hand, Eagle there is a significant difference of +26 but 4-6. Freak.

Unless a team enters the post-season with an all-time great defense and a future voted first full-back like 2015 Broncosor do we really believe a quarterback quartet will take place in 2013 Joe Flacco or 2011 Eli Manning kind of running in the knockout stages while receiving random breaks along the way, we need to look directly at the top five finishers in the point difference between seasons to determine the contenders that have most likely for conference title games and the Super Bowl.

The teams are not really what their achievements say. They are what their differences say they are.