Five things to watch in Tuesday’s Texas primaries

(Hill) – The first primaries of the year will take place on Tuesday in Texas, setting the stage for November’s midterm battle in the Lone Star State.

Both parties are keeping an eye on several key races, including the Democratic primaries in the 28th Congressional District and the Republican attorney general primaries.

Here are five things to watch out for in the wake of Tuesday’s Texas primaries:

Can Cuellar take on another progressive challenge?

Progressive candidate Jessica Cisneros narrowly lost to Representative Henry Cuellar in her first test against the Texas Democrat. Two years later, Cuellar faced a very different political environment.

Last month, his home and campaign offices in Texas were raided as part of an FBI investigation into his ties to Azerbaijan. Cuellar has denied any wrongdoing. While Democratic Leaders Like Speakers Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) Having lobbied with Cuellar two years ago, they have been silent on this major cycle.

Cisneros used the investigation to suggest that Cuellar was a pervert and out of touch. But the investigation did not make her a nominee. Cuellar is a district fixture, with his allies saying his moderate and sometimes conservative stance is in line with the views of the majority of the district’s voters. Cuellar, for his part, has argued that Cisneros’ progressive stance is too far left for District 28.

Recent elections indicate that the district has become more conservative. 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won almost 20 points. In 2020, Biden won 4. Cisneros and her allies argue that voters in the county don’t care about the “progressive” label and are more concerned about electing a candidate who doesn’t care about interests. especially.

What impact will the new voting law have?

Tuesday’s preliminary also marks the first election under Texas’ controversial new voting law, known as SB 1. The law requires Texas voters to vote by mail to provide a driver’s license number, an ID number. Texas or the last four digits of their Social Security number. Any number provided must match the number on the voter registration record.

However, this rule does not match a rough start to this first season. Thousands of voters who voted by mail have had their ballots denied due to the new law. In Harris County, the state’s most populous county, 38 percent of votes were specifically flagged for lack of identification. The county’s rejection rate for vote-by-mail applications, 14 percent, is more than double the 6 percent rate seen in the 2018 primaries.

Elections officials have expressed concern that the process could reduce voter turnout. Supporters of the bill, passed after the 2020 presidential election, say it is necessary to ensure fair elections. However, critics say it is being used to suppress Democratic turnout.

Will Trump win with AG endorsement?

Before President Donald Trump also faces a test in the state, which he won by 5 points two years ago, especially in the crowded Republican primaries for attorney general. Current Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing State Land Commissioner George P. Bush, former State Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and Representative. Louie Gohmert.

Last year, Trump endorsed Paxton, dealing a blow to Bush, who had openly teased the former president’s endorsement. However, Paxton has faced backlash because of the various ethics scandals he is facing. And there’s a risk he might face a stream of water. A poll released earlier this month from the University of Texas and Texas Political Projects showed Paxton leading the very competitive field at 47 percent but missing the 50 percent threshold to avoid outflows.

Paxton loses or is likely to face a strong current that could make the former president’s approval appear weak in deep red, especially as Trump weighs another presidential bid and prepares campaigning for Republican midterm candidates across the country.

And the attorney general’s race won’t be the only one testing the former president’s endorsement. Trump supported a total of 32 candidates in Texas, including 23 incumbents.

Will Hispanic voters continue to support the GOP?

Both parties will keep a close eye on Hispanic voters, a major voting block in Texas. Trump made significant strides with the group in 2020, particularly in South Texas, and Republicans have continued to focus on border and immigration policies since. On top of that, several Hispanic GOP candidates are running for office in the state, including Monica De La Cruz, who came out on top in the crowded primaries for the 15th congressional district, and Mayra Flores , who ran for the 34th congressional district.

But Democrats are also trying to bolster support with Hispanic voters. A University of Texas at Tyler poll conducted last month showed the incumbent Governor. Greg Abbott and Democratic domination Beto O’Rourke are virtually tied in a hypothetical showdown between Hispanic voters.

Will Abbott claim his first win in a landslide?

Abbott is facing a crowded GOP field in Tuesday’s preliminary session, but he is widely expected to win. However, his win rate could be an important indicator that he will stand in the general election as an incumbent.

Former GOP State Chairman Allen West and former State Senator Dan Huffines are among Abbott’s key challenges.

Abbott has come under scrutiny from some opponents for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, with some Republicans arguing that his coronavirus restrictions from the outset were too strict. Additionally, Abbott has faced backlash for how he handled the major winter storm that hit the state last year.

However, a Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler poll released earlier this month found that 60% of likely GOP primary voters said they plan to vote for Abbott, putting him high. than the flow threshold.