Fantasy Football Week 1 WR Preview: Target share for the Cowboys and Buccaneers a mystery worth solving

There ought to be little doubt that the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers ought to be two of essentially the most prolific go offenses within the NFL In 2021. However there’s nonetheless loads of doubt the place precisely all these passes are going. Each groups appear to be they’ve too many weapons for only one soccer. 

It is just about not possible to unravel this riddle by wanting a minimum of 12 months’s numbers. Dallas solely had 4 and a half video games with Dak Prescott and Blake Jarwin left after Week 1. O.J. Howard left in Week 4 final 12 months and Antonio Brown did not arrive till Week 9. Giovani Bernard wasn’t even part of the equation. However we are able to a minimum of get an concept of the positional goal share. 

Kellen Moore’s offense in Dallas has distributed between 62-64% of the targets to vast receivers the previous two seasons, with 17-21% going to tight ends and 16-18% going to operating backs. In Tom Brady’s first 12 months in Tampa, the Buccaneers WR goal fee fell from 62% to 57.6% and the operating backs and tight ends noticed a rise that coated that drop. 

At vast receiver, that leaves sufficient room for all six receivers on the 2 groups to obtain a 20% goal share, however not far more…if it is a good break up. That is nice for offensive effectivity, as a result of it is not predictable on a given play, however it most likely guidelines out a top-12 season except somebody has a loopy landing 12 months like Mike Evans did final 12 months.

One recreation is not going to completely remedy this thriller, however I will likely be watching very carefully to see snap and goal charges for Antonio Brown and Michael Gallup specifically. They have been the 2 most cost-effective, by far on Draft Day. If drafters have been proper and so they’re a distant third within the goal share, Evans, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Chris Godwin have a a lot better probability of justifying their ADP.  If not, we may have a handful of low-end WR2s on these two groups. 

Two issues for the long run, earlier than we get to the remainder of the preview:

1. On each these groups, if one of many high three receivers misses time, the opposite two ought to be absolute stars.
2. I’ve no hassle with beginning all of those guys merely out of FOMO. I anticipate fireworks within the opener.

Right here is the remainder of the Week 1 WR Preview:

Week 1 WR Preview

• 70 — Allen Robinson had 70 yards towards the Rams in 2020, when you’re on the lookout for a cause for hope.
• 45% — The Raiders ranked lifeless final in share of targets to their vast receivers final 12 months; that might want to change if Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards is to matter for Fantasy.
• 10.4 — Michael Thomas averaged 10.4 targets per recreation over the previous two seasons. If Marquez Callaway earns 75% of that he’ll be a must-start receiver.
• 5.6 — Brown led the Buccaneers with 5.6 catches per recreation in 2020. If that continues, it is going to be laborious for Evans and Godwin to justify their ADP.
• 17% — Lamb had a 17% goal share with Dak Prescott. He most likely wants a 20% improve to come back near justifying his ADP.
• 0 — Jakobi Meyers has nonetheless by no means scored a landing in an actual NFL recreation.
• 10 — Corey Davis noticed 10 targets in two quarters of the preseason. It is attainable I am nonetheless too low on him even with the Week 1 enhance.
• 4 — Ja’Marr Chase dropped 4 preseason passes. I do not actually care about that however I do fear that a few Week 1 drops may exacerbate the issue. He is an upside WR3.
• 5.9 — Sammy Watkins averaged 5.9 targets per recreation in Kansas Metropolis. How these are distributed will assist decide whether or not the Chiefs have one other Fantasy-relevant vast receiver.