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Fantasy Football draft prep: Using target data, ADP and player tendencies to help you make key WR decisions

There’s too many groups, too many receivers getting too many targets … and never many Fantasy factors to go ‘spherical.

Cannot you see that is the land of confusion?!

A number of the league’s most prolific and pass-heavy offenses have three or extra receivers who’ve Fantasy enchantment however are nonetheless onerous to gauge. How will they be used? Will they maintain getting fed targets, or is the diversification of throws from the quarterback a certainty that can cannibalize their Fantasy upside from sport to sport? And simply how do their quarterbacks do throwing to sure receivers?

With the season lower than a month away, I assumed it was value one final dive into the numbers to determine simply how the seven most crowded receiving corps would function in 2021.

For this we leaned closely on prior receiver utilization (the place they lined up, how typically they have been focused) and the way typically quarterbacks threw to exterior receivers and slot receivers. Observe that each single stat is consultant solely of receivers and doesn’t embody targets, catches, yards or touchdowns to tight ends until particularly famous.

You will additionally be aware that precisely zero receivers with a top-24 ADP made the checklist. There is a cause for that — these receivers determine to be in a safe place with their anticipated targets and are getting drafted accordingly. These receivers aren’t, which is why we’re wanting into them.

Understanding how these receivers and quarterbacks work ought to assist type some concrete opinions on when to draft these guys — and who to prioritize primarily based on undervalued ADP.

Observe: ADP supply is NFC from early August.

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Bengals

Anticipated major roles

Ja’Marr Chase: exterior receiver
Tee Higgins: exterior receiver (72% go snaps out extensive in 2020)
Tyler Boyd: slot (84% go snaps in slot in 2020; at the very least 73% go snaps in slot in 4 of 5 seasons)

2020 targets per sport from Joe Burrow (10 video games)

Boyd: 8.5
Higgins: 7.3 (excludes Week 1)
AJ Green: 7.5

2020 passing tendencies:

Burrow to fit WRs: 27.5% goal share, 73% completion charge, 8.15 yards per try, 3 TD, 2 INT
Burrow to exterior WRs: 39.4% goal share, 59.7% completion charge, 6.84 yards per try, 6 TD, 1 INT

Burrow to fit WRs in purple zone: 22.2% goal share, 58.3% completion charge, 3 TD, 1 INT (Boyd 3)
Burrow to exterior WRs in purple zone: 27.8% goal share, 46.7% completion charge, 6 TD, 0 INT (Higgins 4, Inexperienced 1, Mike Thomas 1)

With an ADP after 80.0, Fantasy managers are undervaluing Boyd. He isn’t flashy like Chase or Higgins however appears to have a sufficiently big piece of this passing sport to doubtlessly lead them not simply in targets per sport however receptions. Enjoying as a short-area slot man has its benefits, particularly when Burrow must do away with the ball shortly. The youthful receivers will profit from defenses being unable to double-team them each, so it is on Burrow to constantly join with them after they’re open. Meaning being on-target, which Burrow had some points with on downfield throws final 12 months.

Goal predictions

Boyd: 7.5 per sport
Chase: 7.3 per sport
Higgins: 6.6 per sport

ADP & Fantasy worth

Boyd: 83.22 (undervalued)
Chase: 54.63 (truthful worth)
Higgins: 54.68 (overvalued)

Anticipated major roles

CeeDee Lamb: slot/exterior receiver (93.2% of go snaps in slot in 2020)

Amari Cooper: exterior/slot receiver (27% of go snaps in slot in 2020, a career-high)

Michael Gallup: exterior receiver (93.7% of go snaps out extensive in 2020)

2020 targets per sport from Dak Prescott (5 video games)

Cooper: 10.4

Lamb: 7.4

Gallup: 5.0

2020 passing tendencies:

Prescott to fit WRs: 25.7% goal share, 68.4% completion charge, 9.42 yards per try, 3 TD, 0 INT
Prescott to exterior WRs: 33.3% goal share, 77% completion charge, 10.65 yards per try, 3 TD, 2 INT

Prescott to fit WRs in purple zone: 35% goal share, 57.1% completion charge, 1 TD, 0 INT (Lamb)
*2019: 2 TD
Prescott to exterior WRs in purple zone: 20% goal share, 50% completion charge, 0 TD, 1 INT
*2019: 7 TD (5 to Cooper, two to Gallup)

Every part out of Cowboys camp factors to Lamb taking over a bigger position within the offense, which clearly would decrease the upside for Cooper and Gallup. But when Cooper is wholesome, he’ll have a shot at growing improved consistency so long as Lamb garners extra defensive consideration. A drop-off in targets is anticipated, however to not the purpose the place he turns into a Fantasy legal responsibility. Gallup is the one whose targets determine to stay minimized, making him intriguing for Greatest Ball however an inconsistent increase or bust kind in redraft so long as he is the third fiddle.

Goal predictions

Lamb: 8.0 per sport
Cooper: 7.3 per sport
Gallup: 5.6 per sport

ADP & Fantasy worth

Lamb: 29.44 (overvalued)
Cooper: 40.3 (truthful worth)
Gallup: 101.09 (overvalued)

Anticipated major roles

Jerry Jeudy: exterior/slot receiver (66.6% go snaps out extensive in 2020)
Courtland Sutton: exterior receiver (at the very least 80% go snaps out extensive in every of three seasons)
KJ Hamler: slot receiver (66.2% of go snaps in slot in 2020)

2020 targets per sport from Drew Lock

Jeudy: 7.2 (13 video games)
Hamler: 4.4 (10 video games)
Sutton: 8.0 in 2019 (5 video games)

2020 passing tendencies:

Lock to fit WRs: 21% goal share, 52.7% completion charge, 6.54 yards per try, 3 TD, 6 INT
Lock to exterior WRs: 32.5% goal share, 56.9% completion charge, 9.07 yards per try, 6 TD, 4 INT

Lock to fit WRs in purple zone: 16% goal share, 50% completion charge, 2 TD, 1 INT (Tim Patrick 1, Hamler 1)
Lock to exterior WRs in purple zone: 24% goal share, 58.3% completion charge, 2 TD, 1 INT (Patrick 1, DaeSean Hamilton 1)

Teddy Bridgewater to fit WRs: 26.8% goal share, 78.0% completion charge, 8.16 yards per try, 3 TD, 2 INT
Bridgewater to exterior WRs: 35.2% goal share, 64.2% completion charge, 10.38 yards per try, 6 TD, 5 INT

Bridgewater to fit WRs in purple zone: 24.5% goal share, 84.6% completion charge, 3 TD, 0 INT (one every to Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore)
Bridgewater to exterior WRs in purple zone: 26.4% goal share, 35.7% completion charge, 0 TD, 1 INT

The quarterback takeaways aren’t nice — Lock struggled to finish throws regardless of the place he was on the sector however the poor numbers general to fit receivers is disheartening. Bridgewater was at the very least higher connecting along with his slot targets however wasn’t significantly good in any other case. If these are the blokes throwing to Jeudy and Sutton, two gamers Fantasy managers are drafting with excessive hopes, then whoever’s taking part in should throw otherwise than he ever has earlier than. On the very least, Bridgewater’s had the next on-target charge than Lock every of the final two years. If we’re rooting for Jeudy and Sutton, we must always most likely root for Bridgewater to start out.

There’s additionally the difficulty of Jeudy and Sutton taking part in collectively for all of 1 sport final 12 months (and Noah Fant barely lining up like a mismatch tight finish ought to). These elements mixed with the unsure quarterback play make issues messy in Denver. Are these three pass-catchers gifted? No query. However might they wind up with inefficient stats that maintain their numbers low as a result of they’re sharing targets and coping with weak quarterbacks? No query. Fortunately, all of those uncertainties are baked into their present ADPs.

Goal predictions

Jeudy: 7.0 per sport
Sutton: 6.3 per sport
Hamler: 4.6 per sport

ADP & Fantasy worth

Jeudy: 72.76 (truthful worth)
Sutton: 78.41 (truthful worth)
Hamler: 200+ (truthful worth)

Anticipated major roles

D.J. Chark: exterior receiver (at the very least 75% go snaps out extensive in every of three seasons)
Laviska Shenault: slot/exterior receiver (68.6% go snaps out extensive in 2020)
Marvin Jones: exterior/slot receiver (underneath 68% go snaps out extensive in every of previous two years)

2020 targets per sport

Chark: 7.2 (from totally different QBs over 13 video games)
Jones: 7.2 (from Matthew Stafford in Detroit over 16 video games)
Shenault: 5.6 (from totally different QBs over 14 video games)

2020 passing tendencies:

Trevor Lawrence to fit WRs at Clemson: 26.9% goal share, 82.2% completion charge, 10.4 yards per try, 5 TD, 2 INT
Lawrence to exterior WRs at Clemson: 37.1% goal share, 62.1% completion charge, 9.58 yards per try, 12 TD, 2 INT

Lawrence to fit WRs in purple zone at Clemson: 19.4% goal share, 66.7% completion charge, 2 TD, 1 INT (Amari Rodgers 2)
Lawrence to exterior WRs in purple zone at Clemson: 41.9% goal share, 53.8% completion charge, 5 TD, 0 INT

I used to be shocked to see Lawrence’s slot receiver goal share are available low, however the larger shock was the less-than-excellent completion charges and touchdowns within the purple zone final 12 months. Perhaps coping with Covid or a depleted receiving corps performed a much bigger position than he led on. Regardless, it is fairly clear that exterior receivers determine to have an edge with Lawrence, even when a few of these targets manifest as fast screens and slants. Chark and Jones each have a observe document of getting deep targets, so rely on that taking place. As for Shenault, Jones hinted throughout a coaching camp interview that Shenault’s “capability to do some nice issues” would play properly, “particularly within the slot.” Perhaps that is the place he winds up probably the most, which truly could be wonderful.

Goal predictions

Chark: 6.5 per sport
Shenault: 6.7 per sport
Jones: 6.2 per sport

ADP & Fantasy worth

Chark: 78.8 (overvalued)
Shenault: 92.1 (undervalued)
Jones: 130.4 (undervalued)

Dolphins

Anticipated major roles

Will Fuller: exterior receiver (over 73% go snaps out extensive in 4 of 5 seasons)
DeVante Parker: exterior receiver (over 76% go snaps out extensive every of six seasons)
Jaylen Waddle: slot/exterior receiver (36.2% go snaps in slot in 2020)

2020 targets per sport

Waddle: 5.3 (in six video games at Alabama)
Fuller: 6.8 (in 11 video games with Houston)
Parker: 7.4 general, 4.9 in 9 video games with Tagovailoa

2020 passing tendencies:

Tagovailoa to fit WRs: 13.1% goal share, 65.8% completion charge, 5.42 yards per try, 1 TD, 2 INT
Tagovailoa to exterior WRs: 32.4% goal share, 56.4% completion charge, 6.35 yards per try, 4 TD, 1 INT

Tagovailoa to fit WRs in purple zone: 11.7% goal share, 25% completion charge, 1 TD, 0 INT (Jakeem Grant)
Tagovailoa to exterior WRs in purple zone: 32.4% goal share, 54.5% completion charge, 4 TD, 0 INT (Parker 2, Preston Williams 1, Mack Hollins 1)

The Dolphins did every part they may to encompass Tagovailoa with explosive playmakers. With a reasonably good coaching camp underway, we could possibly be on the verge of a breakout 12 months. And do not get too caught up along with his unimpressive goal share to fit receivers — in 2018 and 2019 he stored his go quantity to fit guys very, very near the surface wideouts, particularly within the purple zone. Waddle’s arrival ought to enormously swing the steadiness of slot targets for the Dolphins, and the information on his ankle might have created a Draft Day low cost. In truth, all of Miami’s receivers might have a gorgeous ADP as a consequence of concern of a tough 12 months from Tagovailoa, however none are getting into a spot the place they’re going to actually harm a Fantasy roster.

Goal predictions

Waddle: 6.5 per sport
Fuller: 6.0 per sport
Parker: 5.4 per sport

ADP & Fantasy worth

Fuller: 102.9 (undervalued)
Waddle: 108.2 (undervalued)
Parker: 127.6 (undervalued)

Steelers

Anticipated major roles

Diontae Johnson: exterior receiver (over 86% go snaps out extensive in every of two seasons)
Chase Claypool: exterior receiver (77.3% go snaps out extensive in 2020)
JuJu Smith-Schuster: slot receiver (85.3% go snaps in slot in 2020; slot go snaps have elevated yearly of profession)

2020 targets per sport

Johnson: 9.6
Smith-Schuster: 8.0
Claypool: 6.8

2020 passing tendencies:

Roethlisberger to fit WRs: 22.7% goal share, 75.4% completion charge, 6.41 yards per try, 11 TD, 4 INT
Roethlisberger to exterior WRs: 45.1% goal share, 63.9% completion charge, 7.07 yards per try, 17 TD, 4 INT

Roethlisberger to fit WRs in purple zone: 20.5% goal share, 86.7% completion charge, 7 TD, 1 INT (Smith-Schuster 5, Claypool 2)
Roethlisberger to exterior WRs in purple zone: 41.1% goal share, 56.7% completion charge, 9 TD, 0 INT (Johnson 4, Claypool 2, James Washington 3)

Pittsburgh led the NFL with a 41.0 go try per sport common. That is unlikely to hold over after the edict to run the ball extra got here from possession. The Steelers adopted that up by taking Najee Harris within the draft. Harris will catch the ball lots, too (70 receptions in 2019-20), so anticipating some kind of goal dip for all of the Pittsburgh wideouts is smart.

There may even be extra scheming and pre-snap movement in an try to create smarter mismatches. That may particularly assist Johnson, a shifty speedster, and Claypool, a hulk with wheels. Claypool is especially thrilling in that he is introduced in a number of landing catches in and out of the slot. Nevertheless, it is an anticipated dip in general go makes an attempt in Pittsburgh that can harm all three of those guys. Even a ten p.c dip in go makes an attempt would cut their outlooks significantly, particularly somebody like Smith-Schuster who has been tied to excessive goal quantity his entire profession.

Goal predictions

Johnson: 7.9 per sport
Smith-Schuster: 6.8 per sport
Claypool: 6.4 per sport

ADP & Fantasy worth

Johnson: 47.72 (truthful worth)
Claypool: 63.8 (truthful worth)
Smith-Schuster: 69.92 (truthful worth)

Anticipated major roles

Mike Evans: exterior/slot receiver (37.9% go snaps in slot in 2020 was career-high)
Chris Godwin: slot/exterior receiver (over 63% go snaps in slot in every of previous two seasons)
Antonio Brown: exterior/slot receiver (78.3% go snaps out extensive in 2020)

2020 targets per sport

(within the 11 video games all three receivers performed in collectively, together with the postseason)

Evans: 7.0 (7.5 if excluding injury-shortened Week 17)
Godwin: 7.1
Brown: 6.7 (5.9 if excluding Week 17 sport Evans left early)

2020 passing tendencies:

(within the 11 video games all three receivers performed in collectively, together with the postseason)

Brady to fit WRs: 21.4% goal share, 70.9% completion charge, 9.6 yards per try, 10 TD, 3 INT
Brady to exterior WRs: 38.6% goal share, 62.6% completion charge, 8.85 yards per try, 11 TD, 4 INT

Brady to fit WRs in purple zone: 15% goal share, 66.7% completion charge, 5 TD, 0 INT (Evans 3, Godwin 1, Brown 1)
Brady to exterior WRs in purple zone: 33.3% goal share, 60% completion charge, 6 TD, 0 INT (Godwin 3, Evans 2, Brown 1)

Brady’s low goal share to his slot receivers is slightly gorgeous given his historical past, however that is most likely a by-product of Brady by no means having a receiving corps as wealthy and as deep because the one he has now. The information supplied would not embody Rob Gronkowski, or Giovani Bernard, or O.J. Howard, or anybody else the Buccaneers have. It is that maxed-out wealth of targets that may make Brady’s numbers nice, however go away the Bucs pass-catchers with some inconsistent patches.

It’s a little humorous, if not counter-intuitive, that Godwin had three red-zone touchdowns lined up extensive in comparison with only one whereas within the slot. And I’ve constructed the case for Evans to be a bust primarily based on declining effectivity and heavy reliance on touchdowns, but when he will proceed seeing red-zone targets out and in of the slot, I would need to rethink the stance.

Goal predictions

Godwin: 7.2 per sport
Evans: 7.1 per sport
Brown: 6.2 per sport

ADP & Fantasy worth

Evans: 38.2 (overvalued)
Godwin: 41.83 (truthful worth/i>)
Brown: 91.34 (undervalued)

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts must you goal and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five efficiency? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen’s huge season, and discover out.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/soccer/information/fantasy-football-draft-prep-using-target-data-adp-and-player-tendencies-to-help-you-make-key-wr-decisions/ | Fantasy Soccer draft prep: Utilizing goal information, ADP and participant tendencies that can assist you make key WR choices

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