Fantasy Football draft prep Q&A: Wide receivers whose ADP makes least sense, plus who we’re drafting most

Howdy everybody — Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) right here and we’re inching nearer to the beginning of the 2021 NFL common season and even nearer to your Fantasy Soccer draft days. The Corridor of Fame sport has handed and really quickly we’ll be diving too deep into analyzing preseason football. We’re within the stretch run of Fantasy Football 2021 draft preparation. We wish to get you caught up with the whole lot right here and so we’ll be dedicating every of the next weeks to 1 place group with an offshoot of content material particular to that place. This week would be the huge receivers.

Initially of every week from now till the top of the Fantasy season, I will be organizing a panel of types asking questions of our FFT group and they are going to be delivering solutions. We’ll hear from Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Chris Towers, Heath Cummings and Adam Aizer. You probably have any burning questions you need answered, attain out to me on Twitter @DanSchneierNFL. If the questions are good, I am going to work them into the weekly panel.

With out additional ado, let’s dive into this week’s questions:

1. Which WR has an ADP that makes the least sense to you?

Adam: Odell Beckham in Spherical 6 (WR26) would not make sense to me. That is too early for Beckham, who has been injured in 4 straight seasons (he performed by means of a sports activities hernia in 2019) and has principally solely been price beginning in good matchups since arriving in Cleveland. Thrilling children like Tee Higgins and Chase Claypool ought to be drafted forward of Beckham. 

Dave: Michael Thomas at 52.5. The man would possibly miss as many as eight weeks, would possibly want a few weeks to spherical into type at any time when he does come again, will not have his Corridor of Fame quarterback throwing to him anymore and, candidly, wasn’t the unstoppable receiver we had been hoping for final 12 months. Persons are drafting him solely on status, barely contemplating his circumstances.

Jamey: I am utilizing the CBS Sports activities ADP, and it is Diontae Johnson because the No. 26 receiver off the board at 73.46. I am in search of Johnson as early as Spherical 4, and he ought to proceed to be a PPR star this season. Even with JuJu Smith-Schuster nonetheless on the Steelers roster, in addition to the upside of second-year standout Chase Claypool, Johnson is one of the best receiver in Pittsburgh — possibly by a large margin.

Chris: I perceive that the hype machine can kick into overdrive throughout coaching camp, however the way in which CeeDee Lamb’s ADP has taken off like a rocket ship simply seems like unhealthy course of to me. Perhaps if we had been every week away from the beginning of the season and Amari Cooper nonetheless wasn’t practising you might justify a decide in the midst of the third spherical for Lamb, however we have now each purpose to consider Cooper goes to be there to start out the season. And sure, I do know Lamb was on an unimaginable tempo (93-1,386-6) with Dak Prescott wholesome, however however he additionally had a goal share within the 16% vary throughout that point; should you do not assume Prescott goes to maintain up that 6,000-yard tempo, Lamb’s numbers with him do not imply all that a lot. Lamb is a wonderful prospect in a very good offense, however taking Lamb a full spherical forward of Cooper — who was the significantly better participant in 2020 — simply would not make any sense to me. 

Heath: I really like CeeDee Lamb and I not too long ago joined the gang and moved him one spot forward of Amari Cooper, however I can’t get behind Lamb as WR11 in full PPR. Lamb now has a third-round ADP, which is fairly outstanding contemplating he wasn’t a top-24 WR final 12 months on a per-game foundation and the Cowboys are bringing everybody again. Dak Prescott ought to assist, and Lamb ought to be higher, however his ADP is uncontrolled. 

2. Which WR (exterior the primary two rounds*) has an ADP that makes probably the most sense to you?

Adam: Allen Robinson in late Spherical 3 (WR12) makes excellent sense. He shouldn’t be taken forward of youthful and extra thrilling gamers like Terry McLaurin and A.J. Brown, however as quickly as you begin having doubts concerning the WRs on the board, it is Allen Robinson time. He seems like a lock for 150+ targets and 100 catches, however he will not be a real standout in yards or TDs and subsequently doesn’t have top-five upside. 

Dave: Cooper Kupp at forty sixth total, simply inside the primary 4 rounds in PPR, is smart to me. Anybody who doubts Kupp solely off of final 12 months’s last stat line must keep in mind that he completed top-12 amongst receivers in targets per sport. He simply went by means of some critical regression on a group with a shy quarterback and a rookie quarterback who hit his stride late. The Rams determine to throw extra this 12 months than final.

Jamey: I am going with the order of two receivers, and that is CeeDee Lamb being drafted forward of Amari Cooper. We’ll see if the second-year receiver can show that he is higher than Cooper, however I am keen to take that probability, particularly with Cooper out for the beginning of the coaching camp following offseason ankle surgical procedure. Now, this is not to recommend you keep away from Cooper this season, and he is changing into a stable worth decide in late Spherical 4 on CBS. But when given the selection, I would slightly have Lamb this 12 months. 

Chris: I believe D.J. Moore is being valued completely. He is a rock-solid No. 2 Fantasy WR being drafted as WR19, who has confirmed he can overcome poor QB play to be a must-start participant. And there may be sufficient upside there to make him arguably the final participant I would be snug with as my No. 1 if I waited. He is not sufficient of a positive factor to be within the WR1 dialog, however he is higher than the Diontae Johnson/Adam Thielen varieties who go after him. This porridge is good. 

Heath: Kenny Golladay at WR27 in Spherical 6, is sort of precisely the place I’ve him. Which is sort of odd, as a result of Golladay is a tough man to rank. He has elite weekly upside and may have a path to all of the targets he needs, however he is by no means actually been a real alpha receiver and there are critical questions on his quarterback and his offense. Add within the hamstring harm and also you actually cannot take Golladay as a top-24 man. However he has an excessive amount of upside to go a lot later than this. 

3. Which WR have you ever been drafting probably the most?

Adam: Brandin Cooks goes to dominate targets on an terrible Texans group that ought to must throw regularly. I am anticipating Tyrod Taylor to be his QB, however I nonetheless assume Cooks can end as a top-24 WR. If Deshaun Watson is his QB, Cooks ought to be a Spherical 3 decide. 

Dave: Robert Woods retains falling to me in Rounds 3 and 4, and I preserve drafting him. His flooring is just about set: 90 catches, 1,000 yards, six touchdowns. However the guess is he’ll enhance on his effectivity in an offense captained by Matthew Stafford. I anticipate Woods to flirt with a profession 12 months.

Jamey: Lamb is certainly on that listing, however so is Terry McLaurin. I really like the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick for McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel (groin) being out ought to solely assist McLaurin and Fitzpatrick set up their rapport. McLaurin has top-five upside this season, and he is somebody to focus on in early Spherical 3 in all leagues.

Chris: Robert Woods. I really like huge receivers who can rating in a bunch of various methods, and Woods is among the most versatile on the market. He is a superb playmaker with the ball in his fingers, and the Rams like to scheme stuff up for him within the dashing sport and within the quick areas of the sector, however he additionally figures to be  a greater deep-ball receiver with Matthew Stafford underneath middle. I normally snag him as my No. 2 WR, however he is a top-12 man for me. 

Heath: The reply was T.Y. Hilton within the double-digit rounds, however the Carson Wentz harm makes me wish to again off Hilton a bit of. Second could be Terrace Marshall. I cherished the match for Marshal when Carolina took him and the Panthers have been raving at him since he arrived. Marshall seems to be like a giant slot in Yr 1 with the power to maneuver exterior if the Panthers ask him to. He might play Curtis Samuel’s function from final 12 months with extra pink zone targets. And he is obtainable after Spherical 10 in most drafts.

4. Which WR have you ever been drafting the least?

Adam: Deebo Samuel would not even make it into my queue. I merely don’t assume the 49ers passing sport can maintain three choices, particularly since no 49ers participant has had greater than 5 TD catches underneath Kyle Shanahan. Extra like Dee-NO Samuel (sorry)

Dave: I have been lacking out on D.J. Moore. Has it been on objective? Eh, not likely. I believe he is an important participant who’s needed to make his personal luck up to now in his profession. By way of three seasons, Moore has 28 red-zone targets, 12 red-zone receptions and THREE (3) catches within 10 yards. WHAT THE HECK?! I would like to see the Panthers step up targets to their premier receiver, however they only added energy forwards in Terrance Marshall and Dan Arnold and can get Christian McCaffrey again on the sector. I doubt Moore scores a ton, and he truly fared higher in Non-PPR (WR19) than PPR (WR27) on a per-game foundation.

Jamey: I plan to keep away from Kenny Golladay this season, and I felt that method previous to his hamstring harm final week. I do not anticipate Daniel Jones to maximise Golladay’s upside, and now you need to fear about his well being. Golladay’s ADP on CBS is the No. 25 huge receiver off the board, and I would slightly have Diontae Johnson as a substitute, in addition to a number of different receivers as a substitute of Golladay in that vary.

Chris: In addition to Lamb, you imply? I am going to say it is Thielen, who looks as if he may very well be on the verge of falling off the cliff right here. He turns 31 in just a few weeks and has seen a major dip in his manufacturing, going from 85.8 yards per sport in 2018 to 41.8 in 2019 and simply 61.7 in his bounceback 2020. You won’t have seen as a result of he scored 14 touchdowns, however that is a tempo he positively will not have the ability to maintain, and he is now clearly the No. 2 WR on his personal (low-volume) group. I would not be shocked if Thielen would not break 900 yards this season, and I can not go into the season with him as my WR2.  

Heath: I do not consider I’ve drafted Odell Beckham as soon as and that will not change with a sixth-round ADP. Beckham’s harm historical past is actually a priority, as is the Browns low-volume move assault, however the reality is Beckham hasn’t been that good since he left New York. His targets per sport have dropped to 7.6, which oddly mirrors his yards per goal with the Browns. These numbers are mere shadows of what the elite receivers produce and who Beckham himself was. 

5. Which WRs fear you most by way of goal quantity?

Adam: It must be the entire Bucs WRs. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin each being drafted in Spherical 4, maybe ready for Antonio Brown is one of the simplest ways to go if you’d like a bit of the passing sport. Within the first seven common season video games they performed collectively (not counting Week 17 as Evans left early with an harm), Evans had 59 targets, Godwin had 48 targets and Brown had 47. 

Dave: JuJu Smith-Schuster. I am not saying his targets are going to shrivel to three.7 or one thing like that, however I’m saying Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool aren’t going to go away. Each of these guys supply the Steelers offense extra by way of creating after the catch, and Claypool specifically might evolve right into a near-unstoppable receiver. Each have extra upside than Smith-Schuster and will additional diminish Smith-Schuster’s goal quantity, which is already headed south given the Steelers’ rededication to the run.

Jamey: It is extra like a group, and that is the Tampa Bay receiving corps. It is a crowded bunch with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, in addition to the tight ends and operating backs Tom Brady will use within the passing sport. All three have the possibility to achieve success in Bruce Arians’ offense and with Brady, however Evans and Godwin may very well be too costly if they are going in Spherical 4 or earlier. Brown is a superb worth decide within the Spherical 8 vary, but it surely may very well be irritating this season if the entire Buccaneers receivers keep wholesome and should share targets.

Chris: Saquon Barkley, at the least early on. All this hemming and hawing about his Week 1 standing looks as if a number of noise proper now, but it surely appears clear to me that Barkley is not the place he needed to be by this level within the preseason. He is an unimaginable expertise, however the Giants are a reasonably mediocre offense, and his utilization within the passing sport has not been nice when he has performed subsequent to Daniel Jones. What if he is simply caught in a foul offense with a middling receiving function? And what if he is not as much as full energy till October on high of that?

Heath: The Cowboys…and the Buccaneers…and possibly the Steelers. My greatest concern is getting proper who the No. 1 is, but additionally, if there will probably be sufficient targets to go round. The probably state of affairs is that somebody will get harm after which everybody else will get the quantity they want. But when everybody stays wholesome in these three offenses then there’s prone to be a number of busts at their present ADP. I really feel extra snug taking the most affordable receiver in these offenses, particularly JuJu Smith-Schuster, Antonio Brown, and Michael Gallup.

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts must you goal and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five efficiency? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen’s huge season, and discover out. | Fantasy Soccer draft prep Q&A: Huge receivers whose ADP makes least sense, plus who we’re drafting most


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