Fantasy Football draft prep Q&A: Quarterbacks whose ADP makes least sense, plus who we’re drafting most

Whats up, everybody. Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) right here, and we’re inching nearer to the beginning of the 2021 NFL common season and even nearer to your Fantasy Soccer draft days. Our first full weekend of preseason football is within the books and we’re now within the stretch run of Fantasy Soccer 2021 draft preparation. We wish to get you caught up with every part right here and so we’ll be dedicating every of the next weeks to at least one place group with an offshoot of content material particular to that place. This week would be the quarterbacks (and tight ends to come back later).

At the beginning of every week from now till the tip of the Fantasy season, I will be organizing a panel of types asking questions of our FFT staff and they are going to be delivering solutions. We’ll hear from Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Chris Towers, Heath Cummings and Adam Aizer. If in case you have any burning questions you need answered, attain out to me on Twitter @DanSchneierNFL. If the questions are good, I will work them into the weekly panel.

With out additional ado, let’s dive into this week’s questions:

1. Which QB’s ADP makes the least sense to you?

Adam: Josh Allen fifteenth total makes little sense to me. To begin with, it is too early for any QB in my view. However after Patrick Mahomes, I see a tier of 5 extra QBs who’re principally even (Allen, Murray, Jackson, Prescott, Wilson), so I do not see a cause to take the primary QB on this tier. Let somebody take Allen in Spherical 2 and you may take Wilson in Spherical 4. 

Dave: CBS Sports activities’ ADP has begun to mirror the outcomes of Fantasy drafts around the globe, and individuals are nonetheless taking quarterbacks unnecessarily excessive. Patrick Mahomes at 10.69 and Josh Allen at 16.15 are overpriced, as are Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers all earlier than fortieth total. It took Dak Prescott getting MRIs to fall to an inexpensive spot at 49.11. Why attain for a quarterback in the event you solely have to begin one?!

Jamey: Justin Herbert because the No. 4 quarterback at 32.42 stands out probably the most, even when I do not agree with Patrick Mahomes having an ADP in Spherical 1 or Josh Allen having an ADP in Spherical 2. I like Herbert this season, however he should not be drafted forward of Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson. Aaron Rodgers additionally being drafted forward of Wilson and Prescott is puzzling.

Chris: Justin Herbert as QB4. There’s quite a bit to love about Herbert coming off his historic rookie season, and it is pure to suspect he’ll solely get higher in 12 months 2. Herbert scored the second-most Fantasy factors of any rookie QB ever in 2020, behind solely Cam Newton’s 2011 season that noticed him drop 404.6 factors in CBS Fantasy commonplace scoring, ending as QB5. Newton solely dropped to sixth the next season, however his complete fantasy factors fell by practically 45 factors. That was the same situation to Herbert’s rookie season, as 2011 was a historic yr for passing, at the least partly as a result of defenses being much less ready coming off restricted work collectively coming off the lockout. We already noticed some regression for Herbert, who had a number of passing touchdowns in eight of his first 9 begins, however solely three of his ultimate six. Herbert ought to nonetheless be a beginning Fantasy quarterback, however I can not justify taking him over any of Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, or Dak Prescott, at the least. 

Heath: Justin Herbert. He is falling quick however it is not sensible for Herbert to go forward of Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, or Dak Prescott. I want Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Ryan Tannehill as nicely. Regression of Herbert’s speeding touchdowns and the Chargers complete performs will value him any of the Fantasy factors he could acquire by enhancing in 12 months 2. Do not draft Herbert to be greater than he was final yr. 

2. Which QB (exterior the primary two rounds*) has an ADP that makes probably the most sense to you?

Adam: Justin Fields and Trey Lance are usually not being drafted as starters, however they’re being drafted forward of low-upside #2 QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jared Goff. That is precisely how Fantasy managers ought to play it. 

Dave: Prescott’s is sensible at 49.11. He is downgraded due to his shoulder points, however there’s nonetheless hope for him to play this preseason and present the world he is nice. And I feel he form of must do it or else he’ll see his Fantasy inventory proceed to slip. Honorable point out: Jalen Hurts at 94.69 — the press clippings had been dangerous early but when he strings collectively some good practices, he’ll be a discount.

Jamey: Ryan Tannehill because the No. 10 quarterback off the board is improbable, and he has top-five upside with the addition of Julio Jones. I do not like his ADP at 68.49, however I like the thought of drafting him as a low-end starter given his potential, plus what he is proven us since changing into the starter for the Titans in the course of 2019..

Chris: Tom Brady as QB9. I might need him ranked a bit beneath that, however I can see bumping him up due to the protection he brings to the desk. The Buccaneers are ludicrously stacked on the ability positions, and, after a form of tough begin to the season — hitting all-time low in Week 9 in opposition to the Saints — he performed at arguably a better degree than we have ever seen, with 30 touchdowns in his ultimate 11 video games and a 4,800-yard tempo. He would not have QB1 upside as a result of he lacks speeding manufacturing, however Brady is about as protected as a non-Patrick Mahomes QB can get. 

Heath: I’ve Russell Wilson as QB5 within the Spherical 4 or Spherical 5 vary, so his ADP makes probably the most sense to me. Wilson has QB1 upside and there is actually no arguing that however questions on his quantity and his late season struggles the previous two seasons hold him out of the top-five in ADP. That is sensible to me, however I might nonetheless reasonably draft him than Aaron Rodgers or Kyler Murray.

3. Which QB have you ever been drafting probably the most?

Adam: I attempt to get the final of the highest six QBs, but when that does not occur I search for Tom Brady. He feels extremely protected as a result of the Bucs will throw quite a bit and have arguably the very best receiving corps within the NFL. Brady additionally has massive upside as he was the #3 QB per recreation in his final seven video games of the common season. 

Dave: I’ve jumped on the probability to take Josh Allen when he falls to late Spherical 4 or Spherical 5 (which apparently could sound impossibly low to the individuals who have been drafting at CBS). However I’ve additionally waited and are available by way of with Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford and Trey Lance with late picks. Both approach, I am in search of a good worth on Draft Day.

Jamey: Tannehill for positive, however I additionally like Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts. If I do not find yourself with a top-five quarterback at a superb value — Spherical 5 is the earliest I’d draft one in all Lamar Jackson, Murray or Prescott — then I normally look forward to one in all Tannehill, Brady, Stafford or Hurts. All of them have the prospect to be particular this season, with Hurts having probably the most upside along with his speeding skill. Sadly, Hurts additionally has probably the most draw back given his inexperience and lack of a confirmed receiving corps.

Chris: If I am taking a QB early, it is most likely going to be Kyler Murray. If I am ready, I have been doubling up on Cam Newton and Justin Fields, with the hope that if and when Newton loses the job, Fields can have the Bears job locked up. It is potential neither is beginning by Week 1, however I am assured sufficient in my skill to stream to chase the upside of two speeding QB.

Heath: It relies upon. In analyst drafts the place no QB goes earlier than Spherical 3 I’ve drafted lots of Patrick Mahomes, as a result of I legitimately imagine Mahomes ought to be a second spherical choose in non-PPR and an early third in full PPR. In drafts which might be much less quarterback averse, I draft lots of Ryan Tannehill as a result of he will get drafted as if he will be worse with Julio Jones than he was with out Julio Jones.

4. Which QB have you ever been drafting the least?

Adam: Except for Josh Allen, I’ve been avoiding Trevor Lawrence. I hope to have my beginning QB earlier than it is time for Lawrence to come back off the board, and I want Burrow and Hurts to Lawrence anyway. 

Dave: I took Patrick Mahomes in Spherical 5 of the King’s Basic final weekend. It is the primary time I’ve taken him in a one-QB league this yr. I am merely not keen to spent a Spherical 1, 2 or 3 choose on Mahomes once I know there are gamers at different positions I can construct my lineup with and nonetheless discover a good quarterback in a while.

Jamey: Rodgers for positive. I do not count on him to repeat because the No. 1 quarterback once more this season, and I additionally do not count on him to complete as a top-five quarterback. And given his ADP at 37.63, he is simply somebody I’ll keep away from this season.

Chris: Baker Mayfield. He would not value very a lot, however I’ve a very exhausting time getting excited a couple of quarterback in a run-first offense who would not run himself. Mayfield had simply three video games final season (out of 18, together with playoffs) with greater than two passing touchdowns, and solely 4 with three or extra complete touchdowns. It isn’t unimaginable for a low-volume QB to be a starting-caliber choice — and I am not totally against streaming Mayfield in opposition to the Chiefs and Texans to open the season — however there are most likely 25 quarterbacks I’d reasonably draft, together with stash-and-hold guys like Fields and Trey Lance. 

Heath: I have never had event to draft Josh Allen this yr. Too many individuals are behaving as if Allen will not have some regression off his profession yr regardless of the proof we have seen the previous two seasons from Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. I might reasonably draft each of them than Allen, and it is uncommon that drafts go that approach.

5. Which QB will profit most from an offseason teaching change?

Adam: There are usually not lots of eligible QBs for this query, however I will go along with Russell Wilson. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can have Wilson do away with the ball rapidly, which can hopefully make the Seahawks offense much less predictable. It is time for Wilson to get some MVP votes!

Dave: It’ll be Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are shifting to an up-tempo passing recreation that may stress defenses. I count on Wilson to try loads of passes and full lots of them. He was beginning to put collectively an MVP-type yr in 2020 till he struggled with zone defenses. That is going to alter as a result of the brand new offense will make issues tougher on zone defenses and provides Wilson an opportunity to not essentially throw three touchdowns and 300 yards each recreation, however be productive most weeks with some smash stats every now and then.

Jamey: Wilson will with the addition of Shane Waldron as Seattle’s offensive coordinator. The Seahawks ought to be extra aggressive throwing the ball, with Wilson getting the ball out faster, and we all know what he is able to when his passing makes an attempt are up. It would not be a shock to see Wilson end as a top-three Fantasy quarterback this season.

Chris: I feel Tua Tagovailoa is a darkish horse for this one. The Dolphins promoted TE coach George Godsey and RB coach Eric Studesville to be co-offensive coordinators, and I am hoping they will be extra aggressive with their younger QB this season. Tagovailoa had one of many lowest common instances from snap to throw within the league and he had the sixth-most move makes an attempt in run/move choice performs, and whereas these low-risk performs are a significant a part of any NFL offense at this level, you’d prefer to see the Dolphins belief Tagovailoa to take the highest off the protection a bit extra. If his full complement of weapons is ever wholesome, I count on they’ll.

Heath: Matthew Stafford, although I am undecided it is the teaching change that may make all of the distinction. Sean McVay would be the finest offensive thoughts he is performed for, however the duo of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp makes issues quite a bit simpler as nicely.

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts do you have to goal and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five efficiency? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen’s huge season, and discover out. | Fantasy Soccer draft prep Q&A: Quarterbacks whose ADP makes least sense, plus who we’re drafting most


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