Fantasy Football draft prep: ‘Bust-Case Scenario’ for the top 12 players; what can go wrong in 2021

Draft prep season for Fantasy Soccer is meant to be when optimism reigns. Each player’s ceiling is value speaking about as a result of in the end, it is the best-case state of affairs that is going that can assist you win your league. And we spend loads of time speaking in regards to the best-case situations. By now, you understand how issues might go proper for the highest gamers in drafts — most of the time, you’ll be able to simply level to 2020 to see what it seems like! 

However issues do not all the time work out that manner. Generally, gamers stay as much as and even surpass expectations, nevertheless it’s simply as seemingly that any given player may underperform too. Final season, first-rounders like Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs all disenchanted us, and never all due to accidents. That is not as a lot enjoyable to speak about, nevertheless it’s nonetheless necessary to have an concept in your head of how issues can go improper. 

As a result of it is not the identical for everybody. I imply, certain, everybody might simply get harm and wreck their season, however that is not the purpose of this train. The purpose of this train is to have a look at the non-injury methods a player’s season might get derailed. From some limitation in their very own recreation to some missed flaw of their scenario, the purpose of this two-part collection — gamers ranked 13-24 in ADP are here — is to attempt to determine what the ground is for these projected high picks.

How issues might go improper: Sam Darnold craters the offense

We have seen McCaffrey put up historic numbers with the likes of Will Grier and Kyle Allen, so there actually is not a lot to be involved about. Nonetheless, that does not essentially assure that he’ll stay that good with Darnold, who has actually struggled by way of the primary three seasons of his profession. The Panthers have extra competitors for targets than they’ve ever had with McCaffrey with Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall alongside D.J. Moore, which might cap his receiving ceiling. 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for McCaffrey? Fairly unlikely — he averaged 30 factors per recreation in his three video games on this offense final season. Certain, Darnold might be so dangerous that it sinks everybody else, however McCaffrey has already thrived in that sort of state of affairs. So long as he will get his regular stream of targets, there is a narrower path to disappointment for him than any player in Fantasy. He is received each the best ground and highest ceiling of any decide. 

How issues might go improper: The workload lastly catches as much as him

And it is not simply due to harm threat, although that actually exists right here greater than with most backs, I’d say. Nonetheless, there’s additionally the danger that, after 705 touches during the last two seasons, together with 356 in simply 14 video games in 2020, he simply may not be as efficient as he has been not too long ago It is asking an terrible lot of any again to carry as much as this type of workload week in and week out. 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Cook dinner? I believe it is fairly unlikely. Harm threat exists for each again, and we’re fairly dangerous at predicting who may really get harm at any given time. Cook dinner is not my RB2, however he is no worse than RB3. 

How issues might go improper: Taysom Hill wins the QB battles

That is oversimplifying issues only a bit. Hill might win the QB battle and Kamara may see sufficient of an uptick in speeding quantity and effectivity to make up for no matter he would definitely lose within the passing recreation. Conversely, Jameis Winston might wrestle with turnovers — not precisely a stretch — whereas overlooking Kamara sufficient within the brief passing recreation to harm his worth. However, all issues thought-about, Winston is clearly the perfect QB of the 2 for Kamara’s worth given the chance of elevated passing quantity and a greater offense total. Kamara had only a 15.7% goal share with Hill in 2020, in comparison with 21.8% with Drew Brees. 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Kamara? Effectively, it certain appeared like Winston locked up the QB1 spot along with his displaying Monday, and Kamara is my No. 2 RB, so not very seemingly!

How issues might go improper: The workload lastly catches as much as him

Every part I mentioned about Cook dinner applies to Henry to an excellent larger diploma. He is been a mannequin of well being and consistency, lacking simply two video games in his profession regardless of an enormous workload and punishing, bodily speeding fashion. However he is additionally as much as over 1,400 profession touches, together with a very unbelievable 827 during the last two seasons. How lengthy can he hold that up? 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Henry? On the one hand, having been in a position to deal with this workload to this point is an efficient signal that he is up for the problem. Then again, Henry’s margin for error as a very elite Fantasy operating again is comparatively slim — he had the fifth-most speeding yards ever, the fourth-most speeding touchdowns of the final decade, and completed simply fifth amongst all RB/WR/TE in PPR scoring per recreation in 2020. It is unlikely he’ll ever have a greater season than that, and he is being drafted at his ceiling. I believe Henry’s received a excessive ground due to his workload, however he is very depending on being among the many league leaders in touches, which implies any harm might be particularly dangerous. 

Sony Michel was traded to the Rams. What does this imply for Darrell Henderson? And for Michel? Adam Aizer and the crew you coated on a Fantasy Football At present emergency pod breaking down the commerce:

How issues might go improper: The offensive line falls aside once more

The factor about operating backs is, irrespective of how proficient they’re, they’re closely depending on their conditions to supply for Fantasy. And final season, Elliott’s scenario went from superb to very dangerous in a short time with Dak Prescott harm together with 4 of 5 beginning offensive linemen for lengthy stretches of the season. A power became a weak point, and if that occurs once more, Elliott goes to wrestle to supply like an RB1. 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Elliott? Effectively, there have been reports out of Cowboys camp that the backup offensive line has been a difficulty once more, so we actually cannot write it off. The Cowboys are a really top-heavy roster and as we noticed final season, issues get shaky actual fast if the harm bug hits. That being mentioned, it is unlikely issues go as dangerous as they did final yr for the Cowboys line, proper? 

How issues might go improper: Aaron Rodgers regresses

Adams hasn’t completed worse than WR5 in factors per recreation over the previous three seasons, however his worst end did are available 2019, which coincided with considered one of Rodgers’ worse seasons ever. Adams nonetheless averaged 17.7 factors per recreation, an enormous quantity, however nonetheless eight factors in need of his 2020 common. Rodgers threw for 48 touchdowns, but when he had hit his profession norm TD%, it might have been 33. It is not laborious to see how Rodgers might take a step again. 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Adams? I believe Rodgers will regress, however I additionally assume he will proceed to be one of many absolute best quarterbacks within the league and Adams goes to proceed to see an enormous share of his targets, so it would not actually appear to be an enormous threat to me. Adams is at or close to his peak and needs to be the consensus No. 1 WR. 

How issues might go improper: Age catches as much as him

It could not appear to be it as a result of he is coming off his greatest season ever, however Kelce will probably be 32 come Week 5. He is proven no indicators of slowing down in any way, however age can typically catch as much as gamers fast, and for each Tony Gonzalez there is a Jimmy Graham or Antonio Gates who cannot maintain the high-level manufacturing deep into their 30s.

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Kelce? I believe he is value drafting as early because the No. 4 total decide so I am not betting on it. There’s threat with Kelce’s age, certain, however that does not appear to be an even bigger concern in my eyes than Elliott’s 2020, or Henry’s workload, or the rest. He is defied the chances by being this good at this age with no indicators of decline, so I am going to hold betting on him. 

How issues might go improper: He simply cannot discover the top zone once more

Ekeler looks as if about nearly as good a guess as you can also make for an enormous receiving workload at RB, and I’ve him forward of even McCaffrey in projected targets. Nonetheless, Ekeler scored simply 3 times in 9 full video games in 2020 and has by no means scored greater than three speeding touchdowns in a season. He’ll must depend on scoring by way of the air except that adjustments, and that is a finicky factor to depend on. 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Ekeler? He is my RB4, so I do not assume it’s extremely seemingly, particularly as a result of I believe he’ll get so many touches that it will not matter all that a lot — I’ve him projected for 10 touchdowns, fewer than some other top-12 RB. 

How issues might go improper: Carson Wentz is a catastrophe

Wentz and Quenton Nelson are each anticipated to be wholesome for Week 1, which is nice news for Taylor. However there’s nonetheless very a lot an open query about how useful Wentz can really be at this level in his profession — if he performs like he did final season, that is an enormous downgrade for the Colts offense as an entire, even from the comparatively pedestrian Phillip Rivers. Taylor goes to have the amount to place up massive numbers, but when he is struggling to search out the top zone and never getting a lot work within the passing recreation … properly, you realize why everyone seems to be all the time so pissed off with Joe Mixon? How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Taylor? I believe there is a first rate probability. I am decrease on Taylor than the consensus partly due to that and partly as a result of I do not belief his function within the passing recreation. I might see this being a really vanilla offense, and whereas Taylor will virtually actually be a top-12(-ish) RB it doesn’t matter what, the upside might be actually capped. 

How issues might go improper: Unhealthy landing luck

In all honesty, it is actually laborious to provide you with a manner for issues to go improper for Hill that do not embody accidents. However, as a result of he is such a comparatively low catch man for an elite receiver, Hill would not have that to fall again on in case of a random string of touchdown-less video games. 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Hill? The flip aspect of that’s, his low catch totals stem from his excessive effectivity and large play skills, each of which make him extra seemingly than your common player to attain on any given contact. Which is to say, it is laborious to see issues going improper for Hill on this offense. 

How issues might go improper: A.J. Dillon is irrepressible 

There’s little purpose left to doubt Jones at this level, nevertheless it’s honest to level out that Dillon certain appears to be a way more proficient complementary piece than Jamaal Williams ever was. If Dillon turns into the sort of playmaker the Packers certainly assume he could be, what does that imply for Jones? Jones ought to have the passing downs locked up it doesn’t matter what, but when Dillon begins to encroach on his goal-line function particularly, it might make issues very tough for Jones. 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Jones? I believe it is fairly unlikely that Jones falls out of RB1 rivalry due to Dillon, however he might push him farther from the elite tier. I am going to guess on Jones to stay the lead again — he is my RB7 — however Dillon is a superb mid-round goal as a result of there is a non-zero probability this strikes nearer to being a 50-50 break up on the bottom. Dillon might be that good. 

How issues might go improper: He simply by no means will get absolutely wholesome

Barkley is enhancing and anticipated to be absolutely cleared by Week 1, however the Giants have made it very clear they are going to be cautious with him. What if he pulls up brief in observe in two weeks? Will he have a full function in Week 1? It appears unlikely. Harm threat exists for everybody, however Barkley might be extra susceptible to lacking time with small, nagging issues if the Giants play it as cautiously as they’ve to this point. 

How seemingly do I believe issues are to go improper for Barkley? Extra seemingly than for a lot of the high tier gamers. I’ve received Barkley ranked as my RB7 regardless of that threat, as a result of the upside is so excessive. Nonetheless, it is also value noting that within the 12 video games Barkley has performed with Daniel Jones in his profession, he is been on tempo for 88 targets, in comparison with 115 within the 19 different video games. So the upside may not be as excessive as we hope. 

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts must you goal and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five efficiency? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen’s huge season, and discover out. | Fantasy Soccer draft prep: ‘Bust-Case Situation’ for the highest 12 gamers; what can go improper in 2021


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