Fantasy Football breakouts: Why Joe Mixon, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jerry Jeudy are going to be league winners

To begin with, thanks a lot to everybody who tuned in to the Draft-A-Thon last night. We raised over $55,000 and counting for our buddies at St. Jude Youngsters’s Analysis Hospital, and our donation link will stay open until Friday, so you continue to have time to present. And if you happen to missed the present, the entire thing remains to be available to watch on our YouTube channel right here.

We had an superior time answering your entire questions all evening, however clearly, we aren’t carried out — there’s nonetheless every week left till the video games begin to depend, which implies every week of draft questions left. And lineup questions! If you happen to’ve obtained any questions, ship them my means at with the topic line “#AskFFT” for a mailbag tomorrow. 

As for as we speak: Breakouts! I went over 15 of my favorite sleeper targets for the late rounds, and tomorrow I am going to have my bust picks, however as we speak it is all about these gamers I am choosing to take their recreation to the subsequent degree. Heath Cummings and Jamey Eisenberg just lately refreshed their bust picks, with Heath standing by D’Andre Swift whereas Jamey is keeping the faith with Jalen Hurts and Myles Gaskin

That is what breakouts are all about. These are gamers with star potential — a few of them even have celebrity potential. And that is what you are on the lookout for, finally. You need distinction makers, and discovering subsequent 12 months’s first-round studs is the way you carry house a championship. Hopefully, this listing may be of some help in that regard. If you happen to’ve already drafted and also you’re on the lookout for some players to target on the waiver-wire, I wrote about that earlier within the week, and for your entire drafting wants in any other case, our Draft Day Cheat Sheet has completely the whole lot you want from Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, and the remainder of the FFT crew from this preseason. 

Now, listed below are tomorrow’s stars, as we speak.

My All-Breakouts Group

  • QB: Tua Tagovailoa — I am planting a flag on Tagovailoa, as a result of I actually imagine in his expertise and the scenario in Miami. Remember, he was neck-and-neck with Joe Burrow as a prospect and nonetheless went No. 2 total regardless of a devastating hip harm. He is one other 12 months faraway from that harm and we have seen rave reviews from him in camp, and he confirmed his enchancment within the preseason, finishing 24 of 34 makes an attempt for 273 yards and a landing whereas enjoying with out most of his prime weapons. About these weapons: With Will Fuller, Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki, Tagovailoa has 4 guys who could make large performs down the sphere, and Fuller and Waddle even have the flexibility to show any brief goal into an extended landing. It’s, low-key, one of the crucial thrilling teams of cross catchers within the league, and it places Tagovailoa in place to take an enormous step ahead. I am relying on it. 
  • RB: Joe Mixon — One of many worst issues you are able to do as a Fantasy player is assume, “I am by no means drafting that player once more!” I’ve talked quite a bit about it on this publication, however Mixon is one in all my favourite gamers to focus on this season. He is a top-six operating again and a top-eight decide for me total, however the humorous factor is, I have been decrease on Mixon than consensus each different 12 months of his profession. The distinction is, with Giovani Bernard out of the image, Mixon is lastly in line for the sort of function that may assist him dwell as much as his appreciable potential. Mixon might get 250-plus carries and 75 targets this season, and that is perhaps nearer to the ground than the ceiling. Whether or not Mixon has dissatisfied you prior to now or not is irrelevant, as a result of he is in a greater spot than ever earlier than.
  • RB: A.J. Dillon — Dillon confirmed us flashes of his potential final season, most notably when he ran for 124 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 16. Aaron Jones goes to stay the starter and first again for the Packers, however Dillon ought to have quite a lot of of these sorts of video games this season now that Jamaal Williams is out of the best way. Do not be shocked if Dillon eats into Jones’ goal-line function, too, however the actual upside comes if one thing occurs to Jones. Dillon would feast in that state of affairs, and whereas Kylin Hill figures to see a bigger function as a pass-catcher if that occurs, Dillon might be underrated in that facet of his recreation, so he will not be a complete zero in that regard. You understand how Gus Edwards worth spiked final week? Dillon can be even higher if he obtained the chance. 
  • WR: Jerry Jeudy — The FFT crew has been combating over who will get to be the Jerry Jeudy man recently, and it appears to be like like Dave received — he has him ranked 52nd total and twenty first at extensive receiver. I am not fairly that prime, however Jeudy is twenty fourth for me, and my daring prediction again early in the summertime once we revealed our journal was that Jeudy will probably be a top-12 WR. He is obtained the talents for it, for positive, displaying the flexibility to make performs with the ball in his palms whereas additionally receiving loads of deep targets. Sometimes, deep targets are inclined to result in fairly poor yards after catch numbers, however Jeudy averaged 5.5 YAC per catch with a 13.5 yard common depth of goal. That kind of talent set is what tends to separate the elite extensive receivers, and Jeudy confirmed it. Teddy Bridgewater ought to carry a steadier, extra correct hand at quarterback, and Jeudy ought to profit from that. I would not be shocked if we have been drafting him over CeeDee Lamb this time subsequent 12 months. 
  • WR: Curtis Samuel — I’ll be writing about our daring predictions subsequent week, however I am going to provide you with a sneak peek at my boldest take: Samuel will outscore his teammate Terry McLaurin. Now, I am not saying that is what I anticipate, however I’ll level out a number of particulars to contemplate earlier than you throw this electronic mail within the metaphorical trash. First, Samuel was truly solely 13 factors behind McLaurin in the identical variety of video games final season. Second, we have seen Samuel on the identical offense as McLaurin again in faculty, and Samuel was much more productive — he had 1,636 whole yards and 15 touchdowns, whereas McLaurin had simply 114 and two. Now, that is going all the best way again to 2016 at Ohio State, however that additionally brings up one other level: Regardless of having been within the NFL for an additional season, Samuel is definitely practically a 12 months youthful than McLaurin. However the largest motive I like Samuel is as a result of the final time he performed in Ron Rivera’s offense, he had a really invaluable downfield function, ending fifth within the NFL in air yards in 2019. He solely had 627 receiving yards in fact, however I am going to put that on Kyle Allen and Will Grier’s shoulders greater than Samuel’s. If we’re anticipating McLaurin to take a step ahead with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, we most likely have to anticipate Samuel to profit too. Add in his anticipated dashing dashing function — a bonus 20-30 factors he often would not get credit score for — and Samuel is a severely underrated Fantasy choice.
  • WR: Diontae Johnson — I’ve obtained reservations concerning the Steelers offense, however not about Diontae. Johnson is Ben Roethlisberger’s favourite goal, and it looks like he goes by way of a stretch each recreation the place he simply peppers Johnson with targets for the complete size of a drive. Some could level to Johnson’s points with drops as a motive to fade him, but when the Steelers do not care, why ought to I — he earned 27 targets within the two video games after he was benched for drops. He is not a big-play man, however at this level, Ben Roethlisberger may not be both, so Johnson ought to proceed to stay his QB’s safety blanket. He is an honest candidate to guide the league in catches. 
  • TE: Jonnu Smith — I began out the draft course of with Hunter Henry ranked increased than Smith, however I believe there’s room for each to thrive on this offense, and Henry’s shoulder harm has pushed Smith to the highest of the depth chart for me. Smith is an amazing playmaker with the ball in his palms, and Mac Jones and the Patriots can be good to lean on him as a lot as they will with quick-hitting targets in area. Taking part in in what needs to be a higher-volume passing recreation than the one he had in Tennessee will even assist. In an offseason the place the Patriots revamped their cross catching choices, Smith obtained the largest deal of all of them, so I would not be shocked if he ended up being the No. 1 choice on this passing recreation. I’ve obtained Smith projected for a barely smaller function than Jakobi Meyers, however Smith nonetheless is available in as a top-10 tight finish for me.
  • FLEX: D.J. Moore — If you happen to’re on the lookout for this 12 months’s Stefon Diggs, perhaps Moore may be your candidate. No, I do not assume Sam Darnold goes to play like Josh Allen did in his breakout 2020, however I believe he could possibly be satisfactory sufficient to gasoline a breakout for Moore, who has Diggs’-like expertise. Once I evaluate Moore to Diggs, it is not simply due to their shared background as College of Maryland alums, however as a result of we have seen Moore thrive in all types of various roles, similar to Diggs. In his first season, it was as extra of a short-area goal; in 2019, it was as a move-the-chains kind; in 2020, it was as a downfield-focused playmaker. Moore can do all of it, and with Terrace Marshall bringing a brand new factor to the offense, Moore could also be requested to do all of it quite than being shoe-horned into one function or the opposite. It is a case the place I am betting on a expertise I imagine in; the breakout is coming in the end. 
  • FLEX: Jakobi Meyers — Talking of Meyers, he is additionally able to take a step ahead. He was the Patriots most constant receiver within the second half of final season and he continued that in coaching camp and the preseason. Within the remaining 11 video games of 2020, he put collectively an 84-catch, 1,050-yard tempo, which eent form of underneath the radar as a result of he in some way managed to catch zero touchdowns. I really feel fairly assured in saying the Patriots are going to have greater than 12 passing touchdowns this season, and Meyers will get his share because the crew’s finest extensive receiver. My expectations aren’t tremendous excessive for Mac Jones, however he most likely will not be worse for the passing recreation than what they’d final season whereas throwing fairly a bit extra, so Meyers’ arrow is unquestionably pointing up. 
  • FLEX: Raheem Mostert — When the one case towards a player is well being, there is a fairly good probability I’ll be in on that player for Fantasy. We’re simply not pretty much as good at predicting accidents as we predict we’re, so if individuals are fading a productive player based mostly on well being issues, there is a good probability that player is simply being underrated. All Mostert has carried out since becoming a member of the 49ers is produce at a excessive degree, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 10.0 per reception. Mostert has performed 40% or extra of the snaps in 14 video games with the 49ers, averaging 50.8% of the snaps in these video games, and he is put up 923 yards on 177 carries to associate with 292 receiving yards on 25 catches, with 10 whole touchdowns. If he places up simply these numbers over the course of a 17-game season, he is most likely value the place he is going. If he did it over 17 video games, he is perhaps a top-12 RB. So, no, I am not that anxious about Trey Sermon hurting his worth. 

Accidents, Information, and Notes

Irv Smith is more likely to miss the complete season following meniscus surgical procedure. The restoration is predicted to take 4-5 months, which nearly definitely places him out for the complete season, although perhaps he might get again in time for the playoffs. Both means, his Fantasy season is probably going over earlier than it even begins. The Vikings traded for Chris Herndon to assist change Smith, and Tyler Conklin figures to see a bigger function, however I would not draft both till we see how their roles shake out … Tarik Cohen (knee) was positioned on the Bodily Unable to Carry out listing. He’ll miss the primary six weeks, and I am not anticipating a lot from him this season given his fitful restoration from ACL surgical procedure … T.Y. Hilton had neck surgical procedure and was positioned on IR. The hope is he will not be out lengthy, however he’ll miss three video games on the very least … N’Keal Harry (shoulder) was positioned on IR … Anthony McFarland was positioned on IR. Benny Snell figures to be the first handcuff to Najee Harris … The Panthers launched David Moore … The Broncos launched Royce Freeman. He might find yourself catching on someplace and discovering a reasonably wholesome function, so let’s control that … The Giants claimed Collin Johnson on waivers. He might work his means into the rotation for them … The Jaguars are anticipated to assert Tyron Johnson from the Chargers. Johnson was a stable big-play receiver for the Chargers final season in a restricted function, and he might play the same function right here. It might be fascinating to see if he might get an opportunity for extra if D.J. Chark‘s hand harm lingers. 

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts do you have to goal and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five efficiency? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen’s huge season, and discover out. | Fantasy Soccer breakouts: Why Joe Mixon, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jerry Jeudy are going to be league winners


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