Everything points to the over in Red Sox-Astros, plus other best bets for the weekend

🏈 NFL

Jets at Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. | TV: CBS
The Decide: Jets +7 (-115) — Eat your greens! We discover ourselves in one other scenario the place Mac Jones and the New England Patriots are heavy favorites. Two weeks in the past, the Patriots have been eight-point street favorites towards Houston, and we backed the Texans, who coated for us. Now the Pats are enjoying one other horrible staff, however this time they’re at residence the place they’ve gone 1-3 ATS to begin the season and 0-2 ATS as favorites. The truth is, New England is simply 1-3 ATS as favorites total this season as a result of the Patriots merely aren’t that good.

They rank twenty first within the NFL in factors per drive on offense and nineteenth in success fee. They’re strong on the defensive facet of the ball, and that is why I totally anticipate them to win this recreation. However I am not able to belief this offense’s capability to cowl spreads this dimension, even towards the Jets.

Key Pattern: The Patriots are 2-8 ATS of their final 10 as a favourite.

Lions at Rams, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | TV: FOX
The Decide: Underneath 50.5 (-110) — The plain storyline for this recreation is Jared Goff returning to Los Angeles to face his outdated staff and the quarterback they traded him for. It is exhausting to argue that the commerce hasn’t gone precisely how the Rams hoped, as they’re 5-1, and Matthew Stafford is lighting it up. Goff is just not. Following Detroit’s 34-11 loss to the Bengals final week — which dropped the staff to 0-6 — Detroit coach Dan Campbell brazenly challenged Goff to play higher.

I do not know that he can. Whereas I believed this Lions staff performed properly and fought exhausting to start the season, it appeared like a staff that had misplaced the desire to combat again final week. Possibly Goff might be rejuvenated this week towards the Rams, however I’ve severe doubts about how the Detroit offensive line will maintain up towards this Rams entrance. My learn is the Lions wrestle transferring the ball, and the Rams hand off loads within the second half whereas nursing a snug lead.

Key Pattern: The below is 12-3 in Los Angeles’ final 15 as a house favourite.

🏈 School Soccer

No. 8 Oklahoma State at Iowa State, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. | TV: FOX
The Decide: Oklahoma State +7 (-110) — I’ve acquired a variety of questions on why Oklahoma State is a landing underdog towards unranked Iowa State and the reply is straightforward: regardless of its report, there is a good argument to be made the Cyclones are literally higher total than the Cowboys. They’re definitely extra well-balanced. Nonetheless, I do not assume they are a full landing higher.

Iowa State’s total defensive numbers are sturdy, however it hasn’t performed as properly on that facet of the ball lately. Plus, its offense has by no means been explosive. And whereas I have been important of Oklahoma State’s offense — it is a large motive why I have not been all that prime on this staff regardless of its unblemished report — it has performed higher on that facet of the ball lately and the protection remains to be sturdy. All of that makes it exhausting to belief the Clones as favorites.

Key Pattern: Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in its final 16 as an underdog, together with 10 straight up wins.

LSU at No. 12 Ole Miss, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. | TV: CBS
The Decide: Underneath 76.5 (-110) — This isn’t a straightforward recreation to handicap. We do not know how LSU will reply after the college reached a “separation settlement” with coach Ed Orgeron earlier this week. To be truthful, although, it isn’t like we have been ever certain what to anticipate from the LSU earlier than that occurred. The Tigers lastly had success leaning on their run recreation in a 49-42 win over Florida and I believe they will deliver that very same method right here. The Rebels protection has struggled towards the run, rating 113th nationally in defensive anticipated factors added (EPA) towards the run and 123rd in success fee. Working the ball may also hold the Ole Miss offense off the sphere a bit longer, which might be useful.

The opposite facet now we have to contemplate is that Rebels QB Matt Corral carried the ball 30 occasions towards Tennessee and he isn’t precisely a large. After the sport, Lane Kiffin stated Corral was banged up and hinted that he may miss the LSU recreation. If he is out or lower than 100%, that hurts Ole Miss’ offensive ceiling, which solely makes the below much more interesting right here.

Key Pattern: There is no such thing as a development to assist this, so you will simply need to belief me.

Want more college football picks? You can find all my favorite plays for the weekend in The Six Pack.

⚽ Soccer

Manchester United vs. Liverpool, Sunday 11:30 a.m. | TV: NBCSN
The Decide: Underneath 3.5 (-160) — There’s usually a typical theme with matches like these in England. When two of the most important golf equipment within the nation meet, there’s continuous hype surrounding the match. The whole lot each participant or coach does through the week main as much as it has to imply one thing and is scrutinized accordingly. There’s then loads of time spent speaking about how vital the match is for each golf equipment and the way it will likely be electrical.

Then it often ends with a boring match the place neither staff appears fascinated about making the error that might be mentioned for the following week. So once I see a complete set as excessive as this one, I’ve to go below. Going again to the 2011-12 Premier League season, these golf equipment have met 20 occasions in league play and scored 45 targets. That is a mean of two.25 targets per match, and solely three of these 20 matches have seen 4 or extra targets scored in them, so why on this planet would we guess on it being 4 in 21?

Key Pattern: Solely 4 of the final 20 Premier League matches on this rivalry have had 4 targets or extra scored.

Barcelona vs. Actual Madrid, Sunday, 10:15 a.m. | TV: ESPN+
The Decide: Actual Madrid (+150) — I’m grateful for Barcelona having one of many world’s largest and most passionate fan bases as a result of it forces sportsbooks to guard themselves towards it. Actual Madrid is favored on this match, although it is in Barcelona, however it’s not favored by sufficient.

During the last couple of seasons, Barcelona have been bumslayers. That is nonetheless the case with out Lionel Messi. It is a staff with numbers that look good as a result of they pile on towards inferior competitors however come crashing again to Earth towards higher groups. In 11 matches throughout all competitions, Barcelona has performed 4 golf equipment at the moment within the Champions League (Bayern Munich, Benfica, Atlético Madrid and Dynamo Kyiv). Barca has gained solely a type of 4 matches (it beat Dynamo) and misplaced the opposite three. They have been outscored in xG in these matches by a rating of 5.3-4.1. If we take away the Dynamo Kyiv match, they have been outdone 5.2-2.5.

In Barcelona’s different seven matches this season, they’ve an xG benefit of 12.3-6.7. Discover the disparity? That is what bumslaying appears like! Effectively, Actual Madrid may not be on the peak of its powers proper now, however it’s in a lot better form than the Blaugrana, and it definitely is not a bum. To get Actual at this value appears like a steal regardless of the consequence.

Key Pattern: Actual Madrid has gained three straight conferences.

🔒 SportsLine Decide of the Day: Let SportsLine’s Projection Mannequin enable you in your confidence pool by not solely helping you figure out which teams to pick, but how much confidence to have in each one.

🏀 Friday Night time NBA Parlay

How a couple of three-leg NBA parlay for Friday night time? It pays +181.

• Knicks (-360)
• Nuggets (-330)
• Nets (-145)