Dems always swear they can win in NC. This time they mean business

In the last four US Senate elections in North Carolina, the Democrats are at a disadvantage. But in 2022, Democrats swear things will be different.

Party leaders and strategists say they have a winning candidate in Cheri Beasley, former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. She won 81 percent of the vote in the state primary, and if elected, she would become only the third black woman to serve in the Senate.

“When you have historic candidacies, you end up in a place where voters are showing up at higher levels than traditionally,” said Morgan Jackson, a North Carolina Democratic strategist.

While Democratic strategists feel they have a strong candidate in Beasley, they also believe they have a weak candidate in the Republican nominee: Rep. Ted Budd, a third-term congressman who drove to victory in the primary after he had won the support of former President Donald Trump.

Budd was one of the 147 members who voted against confirming the 2020 election results, and in addition to being a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, he has support from the ultra-conservative PAC Club for Growth.

North Carolina is one of the few opportunities for Senate Democrats this cycle. And early polls show the race between Beasley and Budd is very competitive.

“Cheri made this race competitive and capable of winning, which is why polls show this race is a tie and Washington Republicans are spending millions of dollars on false attacks and supporting struggling Congressman Ted Budd,” said Beasley spokeswoman Dory MacMillan a statement.

But while signs point to a tight race for the Democrats, they have been.

In 2020, Democrats nationwide rallied around then-Senate nominee Cal Cunningham, a born and raised North Carolinian who had millions believing the seat would turn blue. His campaign involved massive spending by Democrats: it was the Senate’s most expensive race of the year, with left-leaning outside groups raking in millions in support of their Southern champion and Republicans also plentiful of money on their nominee, incumbent Senator Thom Tillis ( R), threw.

But Cunningham’s candidacy took a turn for the worse in the final days of the 2020 election after it was revealed he’d been involved in an extramarital affair, tarnishing his Boy Scout-like reputation and drawing criticism for his lack of transparency (as well as the actual lyrics he had on his beloved sent). Cunningham eventually lost the election by 1.8 points — preventing the blue wave Democrats had hoped for in 2020.

It can be difficult to recreate that kind of momentum in a voter base, especially in a year when Democrats have several contested seats nationally — and a Senate majority — to protect. North Carolina will compete for party resources with other competitive Senate races like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where both states already have a Democratic senator in office and who both went for Biden in 2020.

Conversely, Trump won North Carolina in 2020, and both incumbent senators are Republicans.

But Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), DSCC chair, told The Daily Beast that North Carolina is certainly a priority for the committee. “I get a lot of excitement in the campaign, it’s a clear contrast between her and her opponent who is an extreme candidate. He’s out of touch with the majority of North Carolina voters…they’re going to do extremely well,” Peters said. “She’ll cause a lot of excitement on the trip.”

When asked if he was concerned that Cunningham’s loss could have a lasting impact on the race and Democratic enthusiasm in Tar Heel State, Peters bluntly replied, “No. Not at all.”

Budd’s campaign dismisses the idea that he disagrees with North Carolina’s electoral base. Budd’s senior adviser Jonathan Felts told The Daily Beast that Democrats said Tillis was unavailable in 2014, Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) was unavailable in 2016, and that Tillis was unavailable in 2020. “And then you wasted millions of dollars in NC that could have helped Democratic candidates in other states who actually had a shot at winning,” Felts said.

“Looks like they’ll be using the exact same loser playbook in 2022. Doing the same thing, down to the same spin, but expecting a different result is the definition of insanity,” he continued.

Felts added that he expects inflation to play a big role in the Democrats’ chances nationally, and particularly in North Carolina.

It’s still unclear how much the Democrats’ national campaign weapons will invest in North Carolina. But with Beasley’s dominating leadership in elementary school, she began doing nationwide television and digital advertising in April. Senate Majority PAC, an outside group allied with Democrats, has issued a seven-figure ad buy to counter attacks against Beasley, and North Carolina TV stations have also dropped a series of attack ads on Beasley that allegedly distorted their court records, according to Charlotte’s NPR station.

Republicans have started investing heavily in the state. The GOP-backed Senate Leadership Fund has already earmarked $27 million for ad purchases in the state this fall, a number second only to its planned investment in a Georgia Senate race.

Michael Bitzer, a politics professor at Catawba College in North Carolina, told The Daily Beast he expects a high overall price for the race, saying it’s “possible that this year’s US Senate race will be in the top 10 most expensive , but Democrats face an uphill battle in Georgia, New Mexico and Arizona, so those contests may get the bulk of the money just to defend those seats.”

Jackson agreed, telling The Daily Beast that, much like 2020, he expects this race to ultimately be “incredibly expensive.”

It’s still early in the cycle, of course. “There’s no arms race in North Carolina on either side yet,” Jackson said.

But as the clock gets closer to November, he’s still optimistic about the Democrats’ chances.

“I like our shot,” he said.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/dems-always-swear-they-can-win-in-nc-this-time-they-mean-it?source=articles&via=rss Dems always swear they can win in NC. This time they mean business

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