Damien Harris, not Mac Jones, key to Patriots success versus Falcons, plus other best bets for Thursday

It’s been an exciting start to the college basketball season, and I’m still wondering if we’re in a situation similar to what we’ve seen in college football, where teams are ranked high continuously lose or not.

The Big Ten and Big East kicked off The Gavitt Games this week, an ACC/Big Ten Challenge-like event that pits teams from each conference against each other. The series began on Monday night and saw significant disturbance the first two nights.

On Monday, the Illinois No. 10 lost to Marquette 67-66 in a game that drove me insane with fury when Illini made a blunder after a blunder to blow the game late. Thankfully, Tuesday brought another sadness, as Seton Hall beat #4 Michigan 67-65 in a game where my editor Nick Parco would tattoo his entire back. I don’t know the specifics, but he assured me it would look “very sweet”.

The Big Ten had to go through another nasty Wednesday, even though it wasn’t part of the Gavitt Games this time around. It was another ranked Big Ten team, however, as George Mason knocked out 20 Maryland, 71-66. So that’s the three ranked Big Ten teams going down after three nights. That’s enough to make me wonder if it’s already March because that’s usually when the Big Ten is supposed to fall facedown.

Anyway, could it happen again tonight? Probably! We’ll get there soon, but first, let’s catch up on the rest of what’s happening in the sports world.

OK, let’s make some money.

All Eastern Times, and all odds through Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 Hot ticket

🏈Patriots in Eagle, 8:20 pm | TV: FOX
Selection: Damien Harris Over 52.5 Javelin (-115): Damien Harris missed New England’s win over Cleveland last week when he had to rest with a concussion, but he was allowed to play earlier this week and is not included in the latest injury reports. Patriots. All indications are that he’s leaving tonight, which is good news for the Patriots and us. I fully expect the Patriots to win this game under a similar scenario to the one they had all season.

When Mac Jones already the best rookie quarterback in the league, he’s still the rookie QB, and his coach is still Bill Belichick. That means he’s not required to do much in difficult situations, including being away from home. During the season, New England held the ball 44.3% of the time, which is the ninth-highest percentage of the season NFL. At home, however, that rate dropped to 38.9% and placed 22nd. When New England entered the field, the rate spiked to 52.4%, the highest in the league.

Part of this is due to the opponent. The Patriots are on track 4-0 this season with a previous win Jet plane, Texans, Charger and Panthers. While the Chargers are respectable, those other three teams are 8-20 combined for the season. But even if the numbers are slightly skewed due to the late arrival of Patriots sanatoriums, will tonight make any difference? Atlanta is 4-5 in the season, no Calvin Ridley and may not have Cordarelle Patterson, too. On defense, Atlanta’s overall numbers against the run are solid, but they rank 28th in defense success to the run.

Expect the Patriots to lean on tonight’s game again and limit the responsibility they place on Mac Jones. That’s what they did during the season, and it worked in their favor. It will also benefit Damien Harris – and us, too.

Main trend: Damien Harris has averaged 57.5 yards in four dribbles earlier this season.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine pundit Emory Hunt is a crazy ATS 17-4 in his last 21 picks involving the Patriots, and he posted a pick for tonight’s match.

💰 Selection

NBA

Wizards at Heat, 7:30pm | TV: NBA League Pass

Latest rate:

Under 206.5

Select: Under 206.5 (-110) – Do you really need me to keep explaining to you why I’m beaten in any NBA game? Okay, in case you’re new here, it’s pretty simple. The way the referees call matches this season has allowed the matches to have more contact and less to fly like a fish on land hoping to be picked up and tossed back into the calm waters of the road. free throw. It resulted in games with scores much lower than what we’ve seen recently, and even with the books adjusted, they haven’t adjusted enough.

Especially in a game like this where we have two of the best defensive teams in the league. Washington made a big surprise when it started the year 10-4 and finished fourth in the NBA with a defensive rating of 102.8. Miami isn’t far behind with 103.7, which is the seventh-best in the league. Combine these defenses with two slow-moving offenses (Washington is 21st, Miami is 25th), and you’re unlikely to witness a high-scoring game. I like this on anything above 204.

Main trend: Under is 6-1 in Washington’s last seven road games.

🏀 College basketball

19 Ohio State at Xavier, 6:30 p.m. | TV: FS1

Latest rate:

Xavier Musketeers +2.5

Pick: Xavier +2.5 (-110) – Ohio State in turn played the role of “Rated Big Ten team lost to unranked Big East team.” OK, so maybe the Buckeyes won’t be the latest ranked Big Ten team to lose in The Gavitt Games, but based on what we’ve seen so far this season, the line appears. That’s what tends to happen in college basketball, where the market overestimates the ranked teams because they’re ranked, so they have to be better!

And so are the Buckeyes, but I didn’t know they were 2.5 points ahead of Xavier at Cintas Center. While this is the most formidable opponent the Musketeers have ever played against, they have excelled on the offensive front to start the season, which is a point the Buckeyes have struggled with. It’s an area that I believe the Musketeers can exploit, as they are a larger team than the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s regular rotation does not include players taller than 6’8, while Xavier has 6’11 Dieonte Miles and 7’0 Jack Nunge regularly on the bench. Don’t be shocked if Xavier takes a big win at home, but take the points.

Main trend: Ohio State is 2-7 ATS in the last nine games as the favorite while Xavier is 8-3 in the last 11 games as the underdog.

🔒 SportsChoice of the day: SportsLine Model’s favorite game of the night BY FAR is a money game on tonight’s NHL game between the Buffalo Sabers and the Calgary Flames.

🏀 College basketball bets

With all the turmoil in college basketball already, where do you say we’re living? Let’s match a bunch of favorites! It pays +108.

• Confidence level (-900)
• Marshall (-320)
• West Virginia (-900)
• San Diego State (-350)