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College football realignment fallout: What’s next with Texas, Oklahoma stating intent to leave Big 12 for SEC

Texas and Oklahoma have taken the following step in direction of migrating to the SEC by declaring their intent to leave the Big 12 with a proper assertion informing the convention they won’t renew their grant of rights agreements as soon as they expire in 2024-25. The shock that got here when this information first broke final week hasn’t worn off and will not for fairly a while.

Two iconic packages who rule the Large 12 are about to swim into the deep finish of the pool within the SEC if all goes as deliberate. On the sector, Oklahoma is the No. 1 program within the Large 12. Whereas it has struggled these days in soccer, Texas continues to be the richest athletic program within the nation with an endowment that nears $32 billion.

How does that match within the SEC? Oklahoma may at finest be — what? — the fourth-best program within the Power In every single place Convention. Is Texas fifth, possibly sixth? Regardless of the place you come down on that dialogue, the Large 12’s two large canines higher be ready to lose a few of their swagger after they head Southeast. They may not the loudest most impactful voices within the room. That is going to take humility, a time period that is by no means described both program traditionally. It is also going to reshuffle faculty athletics.

Now that the primary bomb has dropped, let’s check out what’s subsequent at Texas, Oklahoma, the SEC and the bigger nationwide panorama of faculty athletics.

Likelihood to alter all the pieces

That is greater than a cash play by the SEC. Positive, Texas and Oklahoma may get a pleasant bump in income by altering conferences. One conservative estimate put their share within the SEC at $64 million per yr, up $20 million from what SEC groups are incomes now. However until ESPN is within the enterprise of tearing up monster contracts in the midst of their phrases, the present 14 SEC colleges will proceed making the identical income (roughly $44 million) via 2032. ESPN has all of the leverage right here. It owns have half the rights (with Fox) for Texas and Oklahoma. Why ought to it pay any extra for this transfer?

Why ought to they pay even $1 extra for this transfer?

Which means this whole realignment, for the second, should to be considered via SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s dissatisfaction with the NCAA. Sankey has been public in his criticism, most not too long ago Monday in a strident takedown of NCAA president Mark Emmert and his affiliation on the opening of the 2021 SEC Media Days.

If the NCAA and Emmert usually are not going to steer faculty athletics, this transfer will place the SEC and Sankey to fill the void.

It is probably not essentially the most principled transfer stealing the Longhorns and Sooners, however as we realized a decade in the past, there isn’t a honor amongst conferences in realignment.

With essentially the most finest groups, the SEC will primarily be capable of make its personal guidelines. Why cease at a restrict of 25 scholarships per yr? The SEC may, by itself, go to 30. Why not 40? How a couple of 150-man roster?

Title, picture and likeness rights has made it doable (and authorized) for gamers to revenue from their model. That might have beforehand been an NCAA violation.

A Miami booster is actually paying gamers for being on scholarship with the Hurricanes. Nick Saban claims Alabama quarterback Bryce Young has earned almost $1 million. Taken to a logical conclusion, there may be going to be faction of packages that may pay gamers and enter into group licensing agreements. That hints of unionization.

Why cease there? Suppose reworked amateurism and eligibility guidelines. A streamlined enforcement mannequin with extra liberal guidelines the place instances take weeks to be adjudicated as a substitute of years. Suppose an SEC owned-and-operated streaming service that brings in even extra cash.

All of it must be in play in the long run. There’s merely nobody round to cease the SEC. The NCAA is already on report as waving the white flag hoping that conferences will step up.

As a lot as anything, this energy play is about … energy. Watch what the SEC does with its model of a 16-team superconference. (It could not even cease there.) With no central NCAA authority, there shall be those that comply with the SEC’s athletic mannequin and those that do not … or cannot, whether or not financially or in any other case.

“The autonomous conferences can decide who they’re by themselves. They do not want any NCAA. They’ll simply make it up as they go,” one faculty advisor informed CBS Sports activities.

If that simply means 4 tremendous conferences, it would proceed the progress of what has already been a de facto breakaway by the Energy 5. It doesn’t matter what occurs, the SEC may simply have develop into the brand new NCAA.

Large Ten is on the clock

With Texas and Oklahoma on board, the SEC will at the least have the potential to go the Large Ten because the No. 1 income convention.

That nearly compels the Large Ten to behave. Its groups earn greater than $50 million per yr between TV rights, Large Ten Community cash, bowl payouts and NCAA Tournament revenues. Its media rights contracts expire subsequent yr, so even with out including groups, the Large Ten and its members are due for a windfall.

However which groups on the market add “professional rata”? In different phrases, which groups are value proportional worth of $50 million-plus per yr?

The largest remaining chips on the realignment board are Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame and USC.  The Buckeyes and Wolverines aren’t going wherever. Notre Dame has proven no indication of assimilating into the ACC completely after taking part in there (efficiently, thoughts you) in 2020 on account of COVID-19.

It is conceivable the large cigars at USC, bored with the underachieving Pac-12, could possibly be excited about becoming a member of the Large Ten. That offers the Trojans higher entry to the playoff and positively more cash.

Such a transfer would most likely contain getting journey companions in Washington, Colorado and presumably Arizona State. That might carry the Los Angeles, Seattle, Denver and Phoenix markets into the Large Ten. What would UCLA and Oregon (and Nike) need to say about that?

Do not sweat the journey. Geography ceased to matter in realignment way back. Consider a West Coast scheduling “pod” that would embrace USC, Washington, Colorado, Arizona State, Nebraska and Iowa.

That is the following potential blockbuster, at the least corresponding to what the SEC simply did. That is a Large Ten with conceivably seven of the highest 16 TV markets within the nation stretching coast-to-coast. Earlier than all this occurred, Rutgers was handed a doc from the Large Ten throughout its assimilation into the league. It said the league’s per college income can be $67 million by 2027. Now attempt to think about if the West Coast joined in.

Kevin Warren being a rookie commissioner who struggled to align the Large Ten round COVID-19, it is laborious to examine such a large transfer for the convention. However with Texas’ curiosity within the SEC spurred by a robust board of regents chair, there are highly effective forces above commissioners that would make this occur. 

The Left Coast appears susceptible in a Large 12 form of approach. Nonetheless, the Large Ten may as a substitute flip the opposite course and attempt to beat the SEC to the punch by way of world domination by going after Clemson and Florida State.

A supply informed CBS Sports activities over the weekend that Clemson is completely dedicated to the ACC.

Would Kansas be on the Large Ten’s quick record? Imagine it or not, soccer stays the first income driver at KU. Its languishing soccer program could be a plus in realignment. Large Ten soccer is robust sufficient to soak up a workforce that may be an automated W regardless of it subtracting from total schedule energy. It might be a no brainer as a result of Jayhawks basketball is a traditionally nice program.

Fascinating be aware: Within the final spherical of realignment, former Large Ten commissioner Jim Delany went after some mixture of Georgia Tech, North Carolin and Virginia. He settled for Maryland and Rutgers.

Delany brilliantly signed a short-term six-year TV deal that expires in 2022. With the Large Ten standing as the following main convention to renegotiate, will it signal a mini-extension to 2025 permitting its deal to sync up with these within the Large 12 if it desires to go after Kansas and/or Iowa State? Or will it take a large swing and look West?

Warren was requested twice by CBS Sports activities over the weekend whether or not the SEC’s transfer compelled the Large Ten to develop. He didn’t reply immediately. “You would really feel the bottom in faculty athletics was going to shift,” he stated.

Pac-12 is within the gap

The perfect, smartest transfer by the Pac-12 can be taking in some the rest of the Large 12. Shortly. Stiff-arm a possible transfer by the Large Ten by increasing your convention East and guaranteeing you might have a future.

Keep in mind: Former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott tried for half the Large 12 simply over a decade in the past. When he informed Texas it could not preserve the Longhorn Community, the deal died. Occasions have modified. Drastically.

The eight remaining Large 12 colleges want a house. It is unlikely that every one of them would go to the Pac-12, however two — Oklahoma State and Texas Tech — can be engaging additions. That will get the Pac-12 into two states that would improve cable subscriptions (subscription charges) for its rightsholders.

If it does nothing, the Pac-12 goes to get a income bump after its present take care of ESPN and Fox expires in three years. There’s additionally the diminished Pac-12 Community that apparently will proceed however wants a large reboot.

Like Warren, new Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff is a rookie. Coupling that with the Pac-12’s ongoing lack of on-field success or consistency, and the convention must make a daring transfer.

Any five-star prospect on the West Coast now has to take a critical take a look at the SEC first in the event that they weren’t already. The league goes to have the most effective entry to the expanded playoff and essentially the most potential groups within the soon-to-be-expanded discipline on an annual foundation.

Sure, the SEC and Clemson have been going West not too long ago to snag big-time expertise. Texas and Oklahoma becoming a member of the league will prolong that probability, making it much less doubtless the Pac-12 will get out of its present soccer malaise — 17 years with no nationwide championship and solely two College Football Playoff berths in seven years.

Large 12’s unhappy, tragic potential finish

In 2016, Iowa State athletic director Jamie Pollard made this prescient assertion: “The Large 12 exists as a result of we’ve got Texas and Oklahoma within the room. If we take Texas and Oklahoma out of the room, we are the Mountain West Convention.”

These phrases hit like a sledgehammer at this time. Because the SEC shocked the world by getting ready to imagine the ‘Horns and Sooners, the Large 12 misplaced 50% to 75% of its worth, a number of business sources inform CBS Sports activities. Their TV contracts with ESPN and Fox include language that permits the Large 12 networks to scale back payouts if there’s a lack of membership.

“Once you’re shedding two of essentially the most seen packages, the community has the best to come back and say, ‘We will scale back the rights by X.'” one longtime, high-profile administrator stated.

Which means the Large 12 deal may drop from $37 million in annual income to as little as $9 million per college. Contemplating there aren’t two colleges obtainable that come near changing the worth of Texas and Oklahoma, the Large 12 is in troubled waters to say the least.

There’s an actual chance the convention could possibly be scattered to the 4 winds. What a disgrace. Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia and Baylor look notably susceptible. These colleges are neither in a serious market nor a longtime nationwide model.

What’s subsequent? The Large 12 appears to be the hunted as a substitute of the hunter. It retains autonomous (Energy 5) legislative voting rights inside the NCAA … if it stays collectively. As talked about, some Large 12 colleges may discover a lifeline within the Pac-12 — simply not all of them.

American the attractive?

The American Athletic Convention has proven an curiosity in taking in at the least some Large 12 colleges. It flirted with Boise State final yr. Does some mixture of Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech make sense? Would the AAC finally change the Large 12 as a Energy 5 convention?

“You must include an aggressive concept that the convention not solely goes to exist however the convention goes to develop a program that’s going to make them stronger than what can be anticipated with the absence of Texas and Oklahoma,” that supply stated. 

If the Large 12 dissolves, everybody strikes up a spot in faculty soccer’s pecking order. Which means the AAC all however turns into an automated qualifier for the expanded playoff when you assume it’s the next-strongest convention after what is going to then be the 4 tremendous conferences (SEC, Large Ten, ACC, Pac-12).

Within the urged 12-team playoff, the highest six convention champions get automated bids. AAC commissioner Mike Aresco has lengthy stumped for his league to obtain “Energy Six” standing. That will now come by attrition.

Determine on the AAC including at the least one college to make it a good 12. The convention has 10 years to run on a 12-year take care of ESPN that’s value a reported $1 billion. Even in its present state, the value of some Large 12 colleges can be a lift to the AAC.

Mountain of a darkish horse

The Mountain West is presently one yr right into a six-year TV rights deal that expires in 2026, one yr after the Large 12. In keeping with business sources, it purposefully did a short-term deal so it may get to the open market faster and in case the Large 12 imploded.

Kansas taking part in a convention basketball sport at Air Force? It may occur.

Ugliness to come back

The Large 12’s grant of rights seems ironclad. The groups agreed to “grant” their TV rights to the Large 12 within the occasion any of them go away for an additional convention. (You can read the details here.)

Along with an estimated $80 million early exit charge, Texas and Oklahoma must litigate that grant of rights deal to go away earlier than the present Large 12 contract expires in 2025. As money wealthy as these universities could also be, have they got the urge for food to wage that monetary battle?

The UT and OU joint assertion notes that they’re keen to attend the contract out, but when the remainder of the Large 12 crumbles round them, maybe they will slide out early with no huge charge. That every one stays to be seen, however each time it involves contracts and cash, a protracted, ugly exit is to be anticipated.

4 extra years of Texas and Oklahoma in Large 12 stadiums/arenas realizing all alongside every is simply taking part in out the string having lobbed a center finger at the remainder of the league? Hold your helmets on, boys.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/information/college-football-realignment-fallout-whats-next-with-texas-oklahoma-stating-intent-to-leave-big-12-for-sec/ | School soccer realignment fallout: What’s subsequent with Texas, Oklahoma stating intent to go away Large 12 for SEC

Linh

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