College football bowl projections: Michigan into New Year’s Six, Cincinnati must look like a playoff team

It was one other weekend that noticed a pair prime 10 groups lose, however we’ll get to that in a second. First, let’s talk about one specific group nonetheless in my College Football Playoff projections for now and the way the CFP Choice Committee is evaluating it: Cincinnati.

The Bearcats got here in sixth within the first CFP Rankings launched Tuesday night time, and there was the standard hue and cry over the mistreatment of it as a non-Energy 5 college. Sadly for the Bearcats, apart from that massive win at Notre Dame, it is like committee chairman Gary Barta mentioned, “Who else did they beat?”

No person of word. The remainder of Cincinnati’s schedule is fairly unhealthy, and that was true earlier than the Tulsa outcome was added. In reality, when you think about that Navy (2-7), Tulane (1-8) and one of many season’s most disappointing groups in Indiana (2-7) are already on it, Tulsa might have been an improve.

Nevertheless, fashion factors matter. They’ve all the time mattered, and Cincinnati didn’t play nicely towards Navy, Tulane and Tulsa. In reality, the Bearcats may have misplaced a few these video games, and that can positively be held towards them.

That stage of play should change. Cincinnati should appear to be a playoff group each time it takes the sector the remainder of the best way if it truly needs to be one. There’s nothing flawed with a 52-7 win {that a} 59-7 win would not remedy. You need to play with the likes of Alabama? Beat these groups like Alabama would.

That mentioned, I have to draw the road at a selected remark made by from Barta on Tuesday night time’s post-release media name. In regards to the Tulane recreation, he commented that the Inexperienced Wave “ran the ball successfully towards [the Bearcats]. They began a freshman QB.”

Who cares if Tulane ran the ball nicely? Tulane had 280 yards of complete offense in that recreation and had averaged 403 yards going into it. Does it matter that 187 of these yards got here on the bottom? Would the committee have felt higher about that efficiency if Cincinnati gave up 93 yards dashing and 187 yards passing? Additionally, two groups forward of Cincinnati within the rankings begin freshmen quarterbacks. I’m not saying that Tulane’s QB measures up, however the age of an opposing quarterback must be irrelevant.

The opposite downside with final week’s CFP Rankings rationalization didn’t contain Cincinnati. Barta and CFP govt director Invoice Hancock have insisted that “recreation management” just isn’t an element; nonetheless, on that Tuesday name, when Barta was requested about Notre Dame, he had this to say about final week’s recreation. “Simply utilizing this final week’s recreation for instance, at halftime in [sic] North Carolina, the sport was 17-13.”

The halftime rating. That is all he talked about. So, the halftime rating is significant and that is “recreation management” whether or not they use the time period or not. It is positively an element for the committee, which signifies that, sure, groups should be involved about their halftime scores. They need to additionally fear about their finish of first quarter scores, and doubtless their 6:23 to go within the third quarter scores. It is not sufficient to win. The message right here is that it is higher to attain early than late to get to the identical outcome. That completely shouldn’t matter.

I assume the committee will likely be extra happy with Notre Dame’s 17-3 lead on the half this week towards Navy however would possibly maintain that 3-0 deficit on the finish of the primary quarter towards the Combating Irish. And sure, that sentence is each bit as ridiculous because it sounds. Barta didn’t reply to a request for remark.

On this week’s projections, the one change among the many New 12 months’s Six groups got here as Kentucky dropped out following a loss to Tennessee at house. That’s the third straight defeat for the Wildcats after leaping out to a 6-0 begin. There isn’t any lifelike path again to a New 12 months’s Six recreation for them now.

Changing the Wildcats is Michigan, which defeated Indiana, 29-7. The Wolverines path to a New 12 months’s Six recreation just isn’t simple as they nonetheless have video games at Penn State and at house to Ohio State. Nevertheless, in the event that they cut up these two, Michigan can have a very good likelihood on the New 12 months’s Six.

Purdue’s win over Michigan State doesn’t change the Spartans’ projection because the Huge Ten’s consultant on the Rose Bowl. It additionally doesn’t change their possibilities of entering into the CFP. If Sparty can win out, which would come with a highway win at Ohio State, they’d be a lock for a spot within the ultimate prime 4.

School Soccer Playoff

Jan. 10

Nationwide Championship

Title recreation Semifinal winners

Dec. 31

Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, Fla.


(1) Georgia vs. (4) Cincinnati

Dec. 31

Cotton Bowl
Arlington, Texas


(2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Ohio State

New 12 months’s Six bowl video games

Jan. 1

New Orleans

SEC vs. Huge 12

Alabama vs. Oklahoma State

Jan. 1

Pasadena, Calif.

Huge Ten vs. Pac-12

Michigan State vs. Oregon

Jan. 1

Glendale, Ariz.

At-large vs. At-large

Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh

Dec. 30


At-large vs. At-large

Michigan vs. Ole Miss

This week, there are solely two sub-.500 groups left within the projections, Hawaii and Missouri. That quantity is beginning to dwindle, however I’m not optimistic it should disappear completely. There are at the moment 49 bowl-eligible groups, so we nonetheless have a methods to go together with three weeks to get there.

Don’t see your team? Check out the rest of Jerry Palm’s updated bowl projections. | School soccer bowl projections: Michigan into New 12 months’s Six, Cincinnati should appear to be a playoff group


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