China is about to make a big mistake by supporting Russia

China is about to make a big mistake.

Faced with a choice between playing a constructive role in helping to resolve the Ukraine crisis or helping support Russia’s brutal attack on that countryChina seems committed to a course that can take the world in a new cold war.

On Monday, US officials led by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met in Rome with a Chinese delegation led by his counterpart, Yang Jiechi. While the central topic of the seven-hour discussion was UkraineThe meeting covered a wide range of topics including North Korea, Taiwan and ongoing efforts to manage strategic risks facing the two nations.

A source familiar with what went on in the meeting told me that their sense is that “the Chinese at the highest levels have been aggressive towards Putin” and that Chinese President Xi Jinping is “trying to show appears to be publicly neutral but is fundamentally supportive of Putin — economically, financially, and now perhaps militarily. I don’t think they want to play the role of mediator.”

The source added, “I feel significantly distrustful and not very promising at the moment. American officials told them that if China continued down the path with Russia, it would be one of the most consequential turning points in modern history.”

As Sullivan said on Sunday in a CNN interviewThe United States is monitoring to see if China actually “provides any form of assistance, material assistance, or economic assistance to Russia.” Mr. Sullivan added that “we have informed Beijing that we will not stand aside and allow any country to compensate Russia for the damage caused by economic sanctions.”

For weeks, American officials were uncertain about how closely Beijing wanted to match the Russian invasion.

On the one hand, before the invasion, Vladimir Putin met with Xi and the two leaders shaped the relationship as one of the deep friendship (Most prominent during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics). More recently, Chinese state media has ramped up Russian propaganda — including baseless stories circulating among MAGA-friendly media that the US is operating biological weapons facilities in Ukraine.

But on the other hand, China might be surprised by how far Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has gone. CIA Director William Burns told the Senate Intelligence Committee last week that Mr. Xi “is uneasy with what he is seeing, partly because his intelligence does not seem to tell him what to expect.” Burns goes on to say, perhaps prophetically, that the Chinese are concerned about the “reputational damage that may come from” the country’s association with a conflict that has been ravaged by the vast majority of nations in the world. world condemns.

According to a senior administration official, Mr. Sullivan emphasized to the Chinese delegation the unification of the United States and its European partners, at least when it came to Ukraine. He also highlighted the participation of America’s Asia-Pacific allies in the sanctions program against Russia and said that Ukraine was a core topic of discussion at the recent virtual summit of the Group of Nations. (USA, Japan, Australia and India), in which President Joe Biden participated.

Biden administration officials harbor hope that China’s concerns about Russia’s conduct in Ukraine could provide an opportunity for China to influence Russia to change its behavior or perhaps even play a role. The role of interlocutor helps bring the conflict to an end.

In the past, Xi and other top Chinese officials have expressed a desire for China to be recognized as a leader in the international community. But by throwing much of its stuff at Putin — already a global leader who every day lumps past war crimes with new ones — China’s leadership is not only risking its own territory. taste they were looking for, but also made three other serious errors.

That is because as the war continued, Russia’s international standing was not only affected, but also weakened economically and militarily. As a result, China’s partnership with that country must be seen as a wasted asset – less valuable to China by the day.

At the same time, if China were seen as providing military aid to Russia or helping Russia evade international sanctions, China would put its economy at risk as it would also become a became the target of US-led Western sanctions.

Finally, by supporting the indomitable invasion of a peaceful country in violation of international law, China is not only against the international order but also against the United States and its allies.

This will push the potential “new” Cold War between China and the US closer to reality. It would also bring the conflict into one between the Sino-Russian alliance versus the United States and its allies on both sides of the globe.

That would be an ironic tragedy for China. After decades of remarkable economic growth, on the verge of claiming a leading role in helping to define the future of the entire planet, they have put it all in jeopardy to become a alliance with a man, Vladimir Putin, who is desperately clinging. The past is lost, there is no solution.