The Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos will get Week 7 within the NFL began when these two golf equipment sq. off throughout “Thursday Evening Soccer.” Each of those groups are coping with accidents on a brief week, however the Browns are notably banged up for the time being. For this matchup, they are going to be with out beginning quarterback Baker Mayfield, who aggravated a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and will likely be held out rather than veteran Case Keenum. That change below heart actually adjustments how the parents within the betting neighborhood will take a look at this head-to-head.
That is the place we’ll spend our major focus. We’ll particularly be trying on the completely different betting angles that this recreation has to supply. Together with the unfold and complete, we’ll additionally check out plenty of participant props and hand in our picks for a way we see this prime-time matchup unfolding.
All NFL odds by way of Caesars Sportsbook.
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This unfold initially opened at Browns -6 however has naturally fallen fairly a bit for the reason that harm bug took a chew out of Cleveland’s depth chart. On Wednesday, this quantity stood a Browns -2, which comes after the information that Mayfield can be sidelined for Case Keenum. Given all of Cleveland’s different accidents, it would not be a shock to see this fall to a decide’em earlier than kickoff.
The decide: Broncos +2. Even earlier than Mayfield was formally dominated out, I used to be stunned that this unfold did not lean in Denver’s favor merely as a result of onslaught of accidents Cleveland was dealing with (20 gamers on the preliminary harm report). Teddy Bridgewater — who is battling an foot injury but is expected to play — uncharacteristically had three interceptions final week in opposition to the Raiders and I anticipate him to be extra environment friendly on this matchup. Cleveland’s protection will probably maintain the Browns aggressive, however they’ve not too long ago not performed properly at residence, proudly owning a 1-4 ATS mark of their final 5 residence video games. I appreciated getting a area objective bump once I might get it with Denver, however I will accept +2 right here.
Key pattern: Broncos are 11-3 ATS of their final 14 Thursday video games.
As you’d anticipate, this complete has sunk within the days main as much as this matchup. After opening at 44.5, the whole now sits at 41 on the eve of this matchup, which is essentially pushed by the lack of Mayfield. Popping out of Sunday, the whole stood at 43 and has dropped two factors since his standing started to crystalize.
The decide: Over 41. In all probability good to fade the whole right here with a bunch of unknowns, notably with Keenum in for the Browns. The veteran does have a robust historical past with Kevin Stefanski, who was his quarterbacks coach throughout their shared time in Minnesota. Throughout that 2017 season, Keenum accomplished 67.6% of his passes whereas averaging 236.5 passing yards per recreation with 22 touchdowns and simply seven interceptions. If he recreates that sort of efficiency, we might be trying on the Over right here, particularly with it sitting within the low 40s.
Key pattern: Over is 4-1 in Browns final 5 residence video games.
Teddy Bridgewater props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +120, Underneath -150)
- Passing yards: 229.5 (Over -115, Underneath -115)
- Passing makes an attempt: 31.5 (Over -115, Underneath -115)
- Longest move completion: 36.5 (Over -110, Underneath -120)
- Completions: 19.5 (Over -125, Underneath -105)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -105, Underneath -125)
The Browns boast one of many higher defenses within the NFL, so it might be tough sledding for Bridgewater. That mentioned, one space the place there was a crack within the basis for Cleveland is permitting passing touchdowns. Getting into Week 7, the Browns have allowed 14 passing scores this season, tied for third-most within the league. Bridgewater has thrown for a number of touchdowns in 4 of his six video games performed this yr, together with three final week in opposition to Las Vegas.
Case Keenum props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +150, Underneath -180)
- Passing yards: 220.5 (Over -120, Underneath -110)
- Passing makes an attempt: 31.5 (Over -115, Underneath -115)
- Completions: 19.5 (Over +100, Underneath -130)
It is exhausting to look again to 2017 at Keenum’s time below Stefanski as any type of indicator of what might occur on Thursday. I might lean towards the Underneath on Keenum’s 31.5 passing makes an attempt for this matchup. I am undecided if Stefanski will utterly put the ball in his fingers to try to win the sport even with D’Ernest Johnson slated to start out at operating again. Mayfield had solely gone over this prop twice this season, so it is exhausting to think about the Browns allowed Keenum to drop again greater than 30 instances in opposition to a protection that’s permitting an NFL-best 56.7 completion proportion to opposing quarterbacks.
Participant props to think about
Noah Fant complete receptions: Over 3.5 (-150). Fant has seen a gentle goal share from Bridgewater and has gone over this quantity in 4 of his six video games performed this season.
Courtland Sutton complete receiving yards: Over 67.5 (-115). Sutton has seen 25 targets during the last two video games, which is loads of quantity to get us over this quantity even when he’s going in opposition to a Browns protection that’s permitting simply 220.7 passing yards per recreation.
Melvin Gordon complete speeding yards: Over 39.5 (-110). Robust matchup within the Browns (87 rush yards per recreation this yr), however Gordon nonetheless has a stable function on this backfield and will see much more work if the Denver employees decides to restrict Bridgewater’s publicity with an injured foot. Gordon has additionally topped this quantity in all however two video games this yr.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/information/broncos-at-browns-picks-point-spread-total-player-props-trends-for-thursday-night-football-in-week-7/ | Broncos at Browns picks: Level unfold, complete, participant props, traits for ‘Thursday Evening Soccer’ in Week 7