ALCS X-factor: Red Sox’s ability to punish low pitches against Astros’ sinkerball pitchers could loom large

Friday evening in Houston, the 2021 American League Championship Series begins with Recreation 1 between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros. This can be a rematch of the 2018 ALCS, which the Pink Sox received in 5 video games, and the third time these two groups have met within the postseason within the final 5 years (the ‘Stros swept the Sox within the 2017 ALDS). Here’s how you can watch Game 1.

“I am having fun with this. I’m having fun with the group. I feel we’re clicking on the proper time. These guys are having a blast. That is what it is all about,” Pink Sox supervisor Alex Cora, Houston’s former bench coach, mentioned Thursday. “… It does not matter the way you get right here. It is only a matter of what you do from right here on, and we’re ready for it.”

The Astros led baseball with 5.33 runs scored per sport this 12 months and the Pink Sox weren’t far behind them at 5.12 runs per sport. They had been the fourth-highest scoring crew within the sport. Offense tends to lower within the postseason as a result of groups run their prime arms on the market on daily basis, although the ALCS has an opportunity to be moderately excessive scoring given the 2 groups and the 2 ballparks.

Just a few years in the past the Astros popularized the artwork of pitching up within the strike zone, significantly with excessive spin four-seam fastballs. They went about producing that spin in unsavory methods (i.e. international substances), although the technique was very efficient and it inevitably caught on round baseball. Elevated fastballs are an awesome swing and miss pitch and the Astros embraced them totally.

The pendulum is beginning to swing within the different path now. Sinkers are returning to prominence — Logan Webb simply dominated the Dodgers for 14 2/3 innings within the NLDS with sinkers — and the Astros are once more on the forefront. Setup man Kendall Graveman, employees ace Lance McCullers Jr. (at present injured), and Recreation 1 starter Framber Valdez are all excessive floor ball pitchers.

Sinkers and the like are typically thrown down within the zone to get floor balls. I imply, that is the entire level. It is troublesome to raise a pitch down on the knees as it’s. Throw a pitch with motion down there, and it is even harder to get the ball airborne. Houston’s pitching employees had the fifth-highest floor ball price in baseball (44.7 %) as a result of they pitch down within the zone so properly.

The Pink Sox could also be uniquely geared up to counter the “pitch down within the zone” technique, significantly in opposition to Graveman and Valdez (and McCullers ought to he pitch within the ALCS). A number of of their hitters are glorious low-ball hitters, and by low ball we imply pitches within the backside third of the strike zone. Listed here are some numbers in opposition to pitches within the decrease third of the zone:

* Contains time with Nationals

Anticipated weighted on-base common, or xwOBA, is a catch-all metric that estimates how a hitter ought to have carried out primarily based on exit velocity, launch angle, issues like that. Typically good contact results in outs and unhealthy contact results in hits. This weeds that out and simply appears on the contact high quality. xwOBA is scaled to common previous on-base proportion, so .400 is nice and sub-.300 is unhealthy. 

By way of xwOBA, the Pink Sox have two of the 9 finest low-ball hitters in baseball in Dalbec and Devers, and Hernández is a prime 35 hitter in opposition to low pitches as properly. Devers is a improbable all-around hitter, and my psychological picture of him is golf shot house runs, like his go-ahead ninth-inning homer in Recreation 162 to offer the Pink Sox house subject benefit within the Wild Card Recreation.

On the flip aspect, Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo are Boston’s weakest low-ball hitters. Bogaerts hit .261 with a .345 slugging proportion (.313 xwOBA) in opposition to pitches within the backside third of the zone whereas Verdugo hit .211 with a .320 slugging proportion (.290 xwOBA). Catcher Christian Vázquez has a .240 xwOBA in opposition to low pitches due to weak contact.

Level is although, five-ninths of Boston’s common lineup excels at punishes pitching down within the strike zone. That might be particularly problematic for Valdez on Friday evening. He is a sinker/curveball/changeup pitcher who makes use of the sinker and changeup down within the zone, and likes to again door the curveball to righties. Right here is Valdez’s common season pitch location warmth map:

The brighter the crimson, the extra pitches in that location. Valdez usually lives on the knees, which is usually a wonderful place to work — Valdez had a 3.14 ERA this season and by far the best floor ball price in baseball (70.3 %, Webb was second at 60.9 % — however not essentially in opposition to this Pink Sox lineup. They will attain down and drive low pitches.

The excellent news for the Astros: Valdez confronted the Pink Sox twice in the course of the common season, and held them to solely two runs in 14 1/3 innings. He struck out eight and 10 in these two begins, his two highest strikeout totals of the season. Boston’s means to punish pitches down within the zone did not assist them the 2 instances they confronted Valdez beforehand this 12 months.

In fact, these two begins got here means again in June, earlier than the Pink Sox added Schwarber and earlier than Hernández actually took his sport to a different stage. Changes can be made on either side, and even then, it is unattainable to foretell particular person pitches and swings. Gamers nonetheless need to execute and infrequently issues go fallacious in the course of the course of a sport. That is baseball.

“You can also make some small changes on it, hold working it, however you do not wish to get away from what’s labored for you as a result of that is when you are not going to have the ability to have success in moments like this,” Valdez mentioned Thursday. “I will exit and throw all my pitches with depth like I at all times have. 4-seam, two-seam, the changeup, curveball. Depth and assault the strike zone, however I am not planning on altering my sport plan in any respect.”

Within the grand scheme of issues, the ALCS will characteristic two high-scoring offenses and doubtlessly some sketchy center aid. On a extra micro scale, the Pink Sox have numerous glorious low-ball hitters, and several other of Houston’s prime pitchers are best down within the zone, Valdez particularly. It’s the sport inside the sport, matching your strengths to the opposite crew’s weaknesses.