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2021 Fantasy Football Quarterback Preview: Projections, sleepers, breakouts, busts, and more

The one factor that has been constant on the quarterback place the previous three seasons is a late spherical decide producing like a league winner.  Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Lamar Jackson in 2019, and Aaron Rodgers final yr.

You might pause on the Rodgers reference, however his ADP was outdoors the top-10 quarterbacks, one spot behind Josh Allen, who was the opposite quarterback to shock in a great way final yr. In order that leads us to 2 questions: Who is that this yr’s late-round league winner and can Rodgers and Allen regress the best way Mahomes and Jackson did the yr after they have been No. 1?

We’ll get to each of these solutions within the sleepers, breakouts, and busts part, however first, we most likely want to interrupt down the state of the place. 

There is a fairly clear prime six for me at quarterback, led by Mahomes and Jackson. However Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson all belong within the Tier 1 dialogue as effectively. ADP would let you know that Rodgers and Justin Herbert do as effectively. What’s exhausting to determine is how a lot of an outlier 2020 was shifting ahead.

In 2018 when Mahomes had his breakout, he averaged 32.3 Fantasy factors per sport and solely two different quarterbacks topped 25. In 2019, Jackson averaged 32.5 FPPG and solely two quarterbacks topped 25. Final yr, 11 quarterbacks averaged a minimum of 25 FPPG, with Prescott, Mahomes, Rodgers, and Allen all between 29 and 30. 

My expectation is that final yr was influenced by the shortage of coaching camp, poor defensive play, and all of the weirdness that got here from enjoying soccer in the midst of a pandemic. That is why I favor Mahomes and Jackson, as a result of they’ve proven us the 32-point upside in a ‘regular’ yr. 

After that prime six (or eight) there are actually solely a few different sure-fire starters. Ryan Tannehill and Tom Brady. Then you definitely get a bizarre mixture of upside and youth (Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence), in addition to a veteran who gives stability (Matthew Stafford). There are legitimately 10 different quarterbacks who may offer you low-end QB1 manufacturing, however it’s exhausting to think about very a lot of them supplying you with a top-five season. 

Quarterback draft technique

In a one-quarterback league that rewards six factors per passing landing, Patrick Mahomes is price a decide on the two-three flip and the remainder of the top-six needs to be drafted in Spherical 4 or Spherical 5. If I do not land Mahomes, I am completely pleased with the final of the highest six. In case your league sees quarterbacks drafted early, then I am very pleased with the final of the Herbert, Brady, Tannehill, Rodgers tier. In the event you miss all of these guys, there’s nonetheless loads of upside left, however I’d make sure that I grabbed two of the top-15 as a result of quite a lot of the remaining guys have very low flooring. I would love for Justin Fields to be one of many two.

In two-QB or Superflex leagues, the highest six ought to all be first-round picks or early second-round picks at worst, and the top-10 ought to most likely be passed by the tip of Spherical 2. However do not go chasing after that. There’s quite a lot of depth within the QB2 vary and there comes some extent round Spherical 3 or Spherical 4 the place Fantasy managers cannot cross up the place player depth. Which means there’s typically not a lot distinction between the QBs taken in Spherical 4 and Spherical 7 on this format. 

One change you have to make when you can begin a couple of quarterback is to worth flooring extra. Somebody like Trey Lance could have huge upside, however he won’t play for a month or extra. That hurts you much more except you draft somebody like Sam Darnold as a 3rd QB to start out over him. As a rule, use my rankings for one-QB leagues however lean extra in direction of the projections under if you can begin two. 

Now let’s check out the breakouts, sleepers and busts. As a reminder, sleepers and busts are closely influenced by ADP, and for this model, we’re utilizing CBS ADP

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Numbers to know

  • 3.9 — Patrick Mahomes has outscored the second-best quarterback over the previous three years (Russell Wilson) by 3.9 Fantasy factors per sport.
  • 15 — Aaron Rodgers would have thrown 15 fewer landing passes final yr had his landing fee been his profession norm.
  • 6.4%Ben Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford each had 6.4% of their passes dropped final yr, solely Andy Dalton had extra.
  • 30.7 — Kyler Murray’s dashing yards per sport in his remaining seven video games. He solely scored as soon as on the bottom in that stretch. If that does not bounce again, he isn’t a prime 5 Fantasy quarterback.
  • 8Cam Newton solely had eight passing touchdowns for the Patriots final yr. Mac Jones ought to a minimum of double that.
  • 29Daniel Jones has 29 fumbles over the previous two seasons, main the league every year. Know your scoring guidelines earlier than you draft him as your QB2.
  • 608Matt Ryan has thrown a minimum of 608 passes every of the previous three seasons. The arrival of Arthur Smith may impression that quantity negatively.

Draft to stream

Baker Mayfield at Kansas City Chiefs

Mayfield’s primary downside has been cross quantity however I would not count on that to be an issue in opposition to arguably the most effective offense within the league. He’ll have Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry totally wholesome and will throw as a lot as he does all yr.

Kirk Cousins at Cincinnati Bengals

Like Mayfield, Cousins has usually been adequate in Fantasy so long as his coach does not restrict him to fewer than 30 cross makes an attempt. Towards a suspect Bengals protection in Week 1, that won’t even matter. 

Trevor Lawrence at Houston Texans
Tyrod Taylor vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville and Houston may have two of the worst defenses within the NFL this yr, which may flip this matchup of quarterbacks outdoors the top-12 in ADP right into a barnburner. I would desire Lawrence, however Taylor will most likely be accessible after the draft in most leagues.

Format Issues

Higher in leagues that reward 4 factors per cross TD: Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Trey Lance

Higher in leagues that help you begin a couple of QB: Matthew Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kirk Cousins, Ben Roethlisberger, Daniel Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff

Tiers

Projections



https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/soccer/news/2021-fantasy-football-quarterback-preview-projections-sleepers-breakouts-busts-and-more/ | 2021 Fantasy Soccer Quarterback Preview: Projections, sleepers, breakouts, busts, and extra

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