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2021 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Wide receivers are cheaper than ever, but should you be buying the dip?

Chances are high, your Fantasy Soccer crew goes to have extra large receivers within the lineup than every other place most weeks. Clearly, that is very true in three-WR leagues, but it surely ought to most likely be true most of the time in two-WR leagues, as properly; the No. 24 RB in factors per sport final season averaged 13.5 PPR factors per sport, a mark that 33 large receivers both matched or surpassed. 

That is to not say large receivers must be the important thing to your draft technique, in fact. The depth of the place is such that, irrespective of the way you draft, it’s best to be capable of discover sufficient viable beginning choices. In his WR tiered rankings and strategies piece, Dave Richard makes the case for working your WR round the remainder of your technique, moderately than the opposite manner round. 

And that is good recommendation. It is smart with how the participant pool seems to be this season, and it is how most individuals appear to be drafting proper now. Simply check out this chart evaluating WR ADP to the general participant pool for the previous 4 draft seasons, primarily based on historical NFC data:

As you may see, large receivers have been cheaper at just about each level within the draft this offseason than any yr over the earlier three, particularly when you get previous the WR15 vary. That is as a result of working again and quarterback costs are being comparatively inflated, particularly on the high. 12 working backs are being drafted inside the primary 18 picks and 16 are going inside the highest 30, on common, whereas seven QB are going within the highest 65 and a whopping 13 are going within the highest 100. 

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This can be a response partially to a season the place the elite quarterbacks were unusually dominant, as 56.2% of all top-12 weekly finishes amongst QBs got here from guys who completed within the top-12 on the finish of the season, in comparison with 49.5% in 2019; moreover, the top-six finishers on the finish of the season had 45% of all top-six weekly finishes this season, in comparison with 33.3% in 2019. Having one of many elite quarterbacks was a real benefit in 2020, extra so than most years. 

It is also a response to an RB crop that appears unusually deep with younger, three-down gamers. These are traditionally probably the most beneficial belongings in Fantasy — the gamers most certainly to provide you a kind of actually elite, 300-plus level seasons in PPR. It is smart that these gamers are being pushed up draft boards, and my ideal draft day plan entails ending up with certainly one of them within the first two rounds, together with one of many three elite tight ends.

So, I am a part of the pattern that’s pushing the value of large receivers down, too! However it’s value holding in thoughts that, whereas the large receiver place is clearly the deepest within the sport, the elite large receivers are nonetheless extremely beneficial gamers. Let’s have a look some outcomes for large receivers during the last 5 seasons primarily based on draft order: 

  • High three in ADP amongst WR: 7/15 had 300-plus factors, 13/15 had 200-plus
  • High six: 9/30 had 300-plus factors, 21/30 had 200-plus
  • High 12: 13/60 had 300-plus factors, 47/60 had 200-plus
  • High 24: 15/120 had 300-plus factors, 75 had 200-plus, 94 had 150-plus

The actually elite WR have been practically assured to be must-start gamers, and have a couple of 50-50 probability of a very elite season — a greater success fee in each regards than the top-three working backs. RB4-6 truly fared barely higher than their large receiver counterparts, however you continue to have an excellent probability of hitting with a top-six large receiver. 

And from then on, the large receivers are clearly the higher alternative at principally each level. And also you see one thing related within the outcomes by spherical, as properly: 

First spherical

  • RB: 2/40 had 400-plus factors, 12/40 had 300-plus, 23/40 had 200-plus
  • WR: 6/21 scored 300-plus factors, 15/21 had 200-plus

Second spherical

  • RB: 3/26 had 300-plus factors, 14/26 had 200-plus
  • WR: 7/30 had 300-plus factors, 18/30 had 200-plus

Third spherical

  • RB: 1/21 had 300-plus factors, 8/21 had 200-plus
  • WR: 2/30 had 300-plus factors, 16/30 200-plus

Fourth/Fifth spherical

  • RB: 8/35 had 200-plus factors, 20/35 had 150-plus
  • WR: 1/49 had 300-plus factors, 29/49 had 200-plus, 40/49 had 150-plus

Sixth-Eighth spherical

  • RB: 1/45 had 300-plus, 7/45 had 200-plus, 15/45 had 150-plus
  • WR: 13/66 had 200-plus factors, 36/66 had 150-plus

Working again is arguably the higher funding within the early rounds, however by the point you hit the third, WR have already got the benefit, and by the fourth/fifth spherical and past, large receivers hit at a a lot, a lot increased fee — 49.5% of WR drafted from the fourth via eighth spherical scored at the very least 200 factors, in comparison with simply 18.8% of working backs. WR drafted within the sixth via eighth spherical during the last 5 years have been about as prone to rating 200-plus factors than RB within the fourth and fifth rounds. 

You is likely to be pondering to your self, “Nicely, certainly, this implies ready on large receiver is the plain alternative.” And, in some methods, it’s. There are at all times going to be starting-caliber large receivers accessible via at the very least the top-100 picks, so you will not have any drawback filling out your lineup. I did that myself in my FLEX League draft this weekend, ready till the fifth spherical to take my first large receiver, and I ended up with Ja’Marr Chase, Will Fuller, Curtis Samuel, Mecole Hardman, Emmanuel Sanders and Rondale Moore with six of my subsequent seven picks. I ought to be capable of wring 4 or 5 high quality starters from that group each week, and there is loads of upside in that group as well. 

However it’s additionally a dangerous group. With the intention to get potential top-12 WR upside that late, I needed to goal Fuller and Samuel, who’re each presently injured, and two unproven rookies in Chase and Moore. My “most secure” man is likely to be Emmanuel Sanders, who switched groups this offseason and is 34 years outdated. You could find must-start large receivers in the event you wait, however the most certainly consequence remains to be that they’re going to principally simply be fantastic starters, not distinction makers. If you wish to chase upside, you are inherently inviting danger into your profile.

It is a powerful steadiness to strike, particularly in a snake draft, the place you might be restricted by which spot within the order you may have and the place each choose essentially means you might be passing on different gamers in that very same vary. Snagging one early-round RB and a good finish means you would nonetheless moderately anticipate to finish up with somebody like Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, or Allen Robinson as your No. 1 large receiver, and you may nonetheless have the chance so as to add one other high 15-20 large receiver within the fourth. That is fairly near my ultimate begin to a draft, as a result of I’ve locked in (hopefully) one elite working again, one elite tight finish, and two high-end, doubtlessly elite WR. 

In reality, if I’ve obtained at the very least one elite RB with my first two picks, I am completely completely happy to go together with 4 and even 5 large receivers earlier than I take my subsequent working again, particularly in a three-WR league. For those who can handle to snag somebody like Chase as your No. 4 WR, now you are not simply including that massive upside with out the danger, and it is cheap that it may work out that manner.

In the end, there is not any one proper technique to draft a crew. Previous outcomes do not dictate future outcomes, however now you’ve got obtained some concrete proof about how the large receiver place has typically tended to work out up to now. It is as much as you to draft your crew, and there is not any one proper or flawed technique to do it. 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/soccer/information/2021-fantasy-football-draft-prep-wide-receivers-are-cheaper-than-ever-but-should-you-be-buying-the-dip/ | 2021 Fantasy Soccer Draft Prep: Large receivers are cheaper than ever, however must you be shopping for the dip?

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