2021 Fantasy Football busts 3.0: Smarter drafters should avoid these players at their inflated ADP

The ultimate installment of my busts column goes to look somewhat bit totally different this yr. And I wish to begin by saying I am actually pleased with you guys. Typically I’ve no hassle placing collectively a listing of 12 gamers being drafted method too excessive in CBS drafts, even this late in August. This yr there was no such luck.

Beginning with the top-12 in ADP, there’s a complete lot we agree on. Patrick Mahomes is the one player within the prime 12 by ADP who just isn’t in both my PPR or non-PPR top-12. However even he’s No. 1 in my Superflex Top 200. And that similarity would not cease in Spherical 1. Josh Allen, George Kittle, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Antonio Gibson are the one gamers within the prime 24 by ADP who are usually not in certainly one of my prime 24s. However I’ve Kittle twenty fifth, Gibson twenty seventh, and Edwards-Helaire thirty fourth. 

Heath’s 3.0 Breakouts | Sleepers

If we diverged at that time, I would haven’t any hassle main off the busts with Allen and Edwards-Helaire, adopted by a bunch of mid-round busts. However we don’t diverge very a lot in any respect till the later rounds, and I do not assume anybody desires to see a bunch of late-round busts. 

So, yeah, this busts column goes to be somewhat bit totally different. There are nonetheless loads of busts, simply with much more context than common. However first, we’ll begin with an annual custom that wants no context.

Don’t draft a protection within the first 10 rounds

The Rams presently have an ADP early in Spherical 8. The Buccaneers and Steelers are on the finish of Spherical 9. This by no means ends properly. And this has nothing to do with the Rams themselves. 

In 2017 the Jacksonville Jaguars outscored each different protection by greater than a full level per recreation. The subsequent yr they completed exterior the highest 15 defenses. In 2018 the Bears have been 1.5 Fantasy factors per recreation higher than every other protection. Once more, they completed within the backside half of the league the next yr. The Patriots have been the No.1 protection in 2019 and–well–I in all probability do not must inform you.

The humorous factor is that the Rams weren’t even No.1 final yr; the Colts have been. The Rams’ present ADP is 147 general. 4 picks after them are the Broncos, my No. 5 protection, who begin the yr with Daniel Jones and a pair of rookie quarterbacks. 

To be clear, I’ve the Rams ranked as my No. 1 protection. I anticipate them to be superb. However there will probably be good defenses accessible within the last rounds of each draft. The distinction annually between the No. 1 and the No. 12 protection is usually round two to 3 Fantasy factors per week. Actually not nothing, but in addition not price choosing a protection whereas there are nonetheless impactful offensive gamers with upside accessible. 

Do not wager on the lunacy of 2020 QB scoring repeating itself.

I might have gone with one other tried and true bust column take: “Do not take a QB within the first spherical!” It is nonetheless true, and I do assume Patrick Mahomes is a bust within the first spherical. I additionally hate to name him that as a result of he is my most drafted quarterback when he falls to Spherical 3. So drafting Mahomes in Spherical 1 is a mistake, however not as large of a mistake as betting on a repeat of final yr’s quarterback numbers.

How a lot of an outlier was 2020? Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill tied for QB11 at 25.65 Fantasy factors per recreation. That may have been a top-four season yearly going again to 2011. What occurred in 2011? A lockout that impacted coaching camp and the preseason. It is not an ideal comparability to final yr and not using a preseason, however I believe it is truthful to say that the defenses struggled final yr in a method we should not anticipate them to repeat.

Three quarterbacks whose ADP seems to be closely impacted by 2020 are Josh Allen (QB2, 17.6 general), Aaron Rodgers (QB5, 38.7 general), Justin Herbert (QB6 43.3 general). 

Herbert is the hardest to gauge as a result of 2020 was his solely season. However we additionally know his numbers have been drastically influenced by the truth that the Chargers ran 1,127 offensive performs (100 greater than league-median). With a brand new head coach and offensive coordinator, that quantity ought to regress, giving Herbert little probability of matching his 2020 quantity. 

Allen and Rodgers are significantly compared to Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, who each have ADPs in Spherical 5, the place I’ve them ranked. Prescott was higher than each Allen and Rodgers on a per recreation foundation in each 2019 and 2020. Wilson was significantly higher than each 2019, improved by 2.5 factors final yr, and completed behind each final yr. 

We actually haven’t any motive to imagine Allen will probably be three rounds higher than Prescott and Wilson or 18 picks higher than Lamar Jackson for that matter. And the case for Rodgers and Herbert is even shakier. Do not get caught reaching for the fellows who popped final yr when there are such a lot of comparable choices accessible later.

Watch out for the crowded receiving rooms

It is nice for NFL teams to have a loaded go corps, however it may be an issue for Fantasy Football. The Buccaneers, Cowboys and Steelers all have goal equations which can be tough to parse. Fortunately, in CBS leagues, not one of the Steelers are being drafted within the first 5 rounds, to allow them to all nonetheless return worth. The identical just isn’t true for the opposite offenses.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are each bust candidates with a fourth-round ADP. That is as a result of we all know Tom Brady will closely contain his working backs and tight ends, plus he’ll have Antonio Brown for a full season. Final yr, Brown really led the Buccaneers in targets and receptions per recreation. 

Evans is my largest concern, simply because we will really feel fairly assured landing regression is coming. We have already seen it twice in his profession. In 2014 and 2016 he scored 12 touchdowns. In 2015 he scored three and in 2017 he scored 5. The issue is that final yr he noticed a career-low 6.8 targets per recreation and caught a profession low 4.4 passes per recreation. These numbers, mixed with doubtless landing regression might make Evans a mid-range No. 3 receiver.

In Dallas, CeeDee Lamb has pulled convincingly forward of Amari Cooper, and that does not make a lot sense to me. By all accounts, Cooper is absolutely wholesome and he was higher than Lamb with and with out Dak Prescott final yr. Cooper has been a bona fide star with Prescott, averaging practically 80 yards per recreation and 9.4 yards per goal in 29 full video games they’ve performed collectively. But in addition, if Lamb, Cooper, and Michael Gallup play 17 video games, I am undecided any of them can justify a Spherical 4 price ticket as a result of I do not assume anybody is getting greater than a 21% goal share.

The issue with each of those conditions is that one harm might make the highest two receivers on the staff stars. So fading them is a little bit of a threat, however the math would not work out at their ADP.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire and potential working again busts

Earlier than speaking about every other working backs, it is in all probability greatest to deal with Edwards-Helaire. Just like the receivers above, I do not deny he has the upside to justify his ADP. He has first-round upside even. Here is what I do not like:

Edwards-Helaire was barely a prime 5 working again prospect earlier than the draft final yr, however the Chiefs drafted him thirty second general and he immediately jumped to No. 1 in Dynasty drafts and the primary spherical in redraft after Damien Williams opted out. The Chiefs performed him a minimum of 60% of the snaps in every of his first six video games and he averaged 21 touches per recreation. They appreciated what they noticed a lot that they went and signed Le’Veon Bell and solely performed Edwards-Helaire in 60% of snaps as soon as the remainder of the yr. Within the Super BowlDarrel Williams was performed quick yardage and passing downs over Edwards-Helaire.

He was a rookie, so I do not wish to low cost the prospect of him enhancing and receiving that large function once more. If he does, and stays wholesome this time, he’ll be a price, not a bust, on the two-three flip. However I do not assume that is extra doubtless than it’s for James Robinson, David Montgomery, Chris Carson, or D’Andre Swift, and so they’re all being drafted properly after him. 

The opposite two working backs who fear me are Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Hunt is fairly easy; his function drastically diminished when Chubb returned from harm final yr and he is being drafted forward of backs who might change into Fantasy starters with out an harm. Chubb is a PPR-only dialogue, however he wanted an enormous landing price to justify a first-round price final yr. As we noticed on the finish of the 2019 season, that is not assured. I do not wish to draft an early-downs again in a timeshare in Spherical 1, even when he is without doubt one of the greatest pure runners in soccer.

Unicorn or bust?

I’ve written lots about why I do not like Kyle Pitts‘ ADP this summer time, so I will attempt to hold it temporary. It’s doable Kyle Pitts might have one of the best rookie tight finish season of the fashionable period and nonetheless not dwell as much as his ADP. View him extra like a receiver? He must have an important season for a rookie extensive receiver to justify his ADP. No rookie receiver from this class is being drafted inside a two rounds of him by CBS ADP. I additionally assume there’s somewhat extra threat than persons are letting on that Arthur Smith might unveil an offense way more run-heavy than what we’re used to seeing in Atlanta. And Hayden Hurst is not going to utterly disappear both.

I really like Pitts the prospect. I’ve focused him in Dynasty. I am simply not keen to wager a fourth- or fifth-round seasonal decide on a historic outlier. However I believe it is tremendous when you do, so long as you realize what you are betting on stepping into.

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts must you goal and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five efficiency? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen’s huge season, and discover out. | 2021 Fantasy Soccer busts 3.0: Smarter drafters ought to keep away from these gamers at their inflated ADP


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